We review different approaches for measuring the impact of liquidity on CDS prices. We start with reduced form models incorporating liquidity as an additional discount rate. We review Chen, Fabozzi and Sverdlove (2008) and Buhler and Trapp (2006, 2008), adopting different assumptions on how liquidity rates enter the CD…
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48 results for “Illiquid CDS”
Study estimates default probabilities without liquid CDS, using real-world probabilities.
problem Estimating default probabilities in markets with no liquid CDS.
method Use minimum variance hedge, estimate real-world probabilities.
result Validates use of real-world probabilities for CVA calculations.
CDS (credit default swap) contracts that were initiated some time ago frequently have spreads and/or maturities that are not available on the current market of CDSs, and are thus illiquid. This article introduces an incomplete-market approach to valuing illiquid CDSs that, in contrast to the risk-neutral approach of cu…
Regulators require financial institutions to estimate counterparty default risks from liquid CDS quotes for the valuation and risk management of OTC derivatives. However, the vast majority of counterparties do not have liquid CDS quotes and need proxy CDS rates. Existing methods cannot account for counterparty-specific…
Recently, incomplete-market techniques have been used to develop a model applicable to credit default swaps (CDSs) with results obtained that are quite different from those obtained using the market-standard model. This article makes use of the new incomplete-market model to further study CDS hedging and extends the mo…
Study reveals how illiquidity network signals Chinese stock market crashes.
problem Understanding and predicting Chinese stock market crashes.
method Established an illiquidity network to model market dynamics.
result Market crashes are preceded by a more densely connected illiquidity network.
Optimizes asset allocation with illiquid assets using MPC.
problem Strategic asset allocation with illiquid alternative asset classes.
method Formulates illiquid dynamics as a random linear system and proposes a convex optimization based MPC policy.
result Performance close to a fully liquid scenario, despite time delay and uncertainty.
Transfer Learning (Il)liquidityq-fin.MF
Framework improves risk neutral density estimation in illiquid markets.
problem Challenges in estimating Risk Neutral Density in illiquid markets.
method Introduces Deep Log-Sum-Exp Neural Network leveraging Deep and Transfer learning.
result Framework recovers Risk Neutral Density with few option quotes in severe illiquidity.
The article models illiquid stocks using quantum calculus with asymptotic methods.
problem Modeling illiquid financial markets.
method Application of quantum stochastic calculus and asymptotic methods.
result Power series solutions can approximate quantum stochastic processes for longer time frames.
Paper examines trade/no trade patterns in illiquid stocks, highlighting effects of varying zero returns probabilities.
problem Detecting long-run trade/no trade effects in illiquid stocks with varying zero returns probabilities.
method Proposes a framework considering constant and time-varying zero returns probabilities, analyzing trade/no trade categorical sequences.
result Long-run trade/no trade effects may be spuriously detected in presence of non-constant zero returns probabilities.
The study presents examples of spaces with varying dimensions and discusses the limitations of the condition.
problem Exploring the properties and limitations of spaces with varying dimensions.
method Generalizing results from previous work, presenting examples and analyzing the conditions under which the condition fails.
result The condition is not stable under measured Gromov-Hausdorff convergence and may fail in various ways.
A Stochastic Model for Illiquid Stock Prices and its Conclusion about Correlation Measurementq-fin.ST
Study models illiquid stock prices and finds low correlation due to constant prices.
problem Modeling illiquid stock prices and measuring correlation accurately.
method Combined Markov model with Ornstein Uhlenbeck and geometric Brownian motion.
result Low correlation in USE stocks due to constant prices and illiquidity.
The CD equalities were introduced to imply the gradient estimate of laplace operator on graphs. This article is based on the unbounded Laplacians, and finally concludes some equivalent properties of the CD(K,)and CD(K,n).
We present a generic framework for parallel coordinate descent (CD) algorithms that includes, as special cases, the original sequential algorithms Cyclic CD and Stochastic CD, as well as the recent parallel Shotgun algorithm. We introduce two novel parallel algorithms that are also special cases---Thread-Greedy CD and …
Simulating and analyzing a sparse order book: an application to intraday electricity marketsq-fin.TR
Model simulates sparse order books in illiquid markets.
problem Inaccurate LOB models in illiquid markets.
method Inhomogeneous Poisson process for order arrivals and cancellations.
result Enhanced understanding of LOB dynamics in illiquid markets.
A new formula for pricing illiquid corporate bonds.
problem Pricing bonds with limited liquidity in the market.
method Option approach with reduced-form interest and credit risk modeling.
result A simple closed formula for illiquid corporate coupon bond prices.
Paper offers a simple CDS approximation formula with high accuracy.
problem Lack of CDS levels for market appreciation of companies' default risk.
method Developed a global and transparent Equity-to-Credit (E2C) formula using random forest regression.
result Random forest regression with E2C formula achieves 87.3% out-of-sample accuracy in CDS approximations.
We introduce a more restrictive version of the strict -condition, the so-called very strict -condition, and show the existence of optimal maps in very strict -spaces despite the possible lack of uniqueness of optimal plans.
We study a problem of optimal investment/consumption over an infinite horizon in a market consisting of a liquid and an illiquid asset. The liquid asset is observed and can be traded continuously, while the illiquid one can only be traded and observed at discrete random times corresponding to the jumps of a Poisson pro…
Given any K and N we show that there exists a compact geodesic metric measure space satisfying locally the CD(0,4) condition but failing CD(K,N) globally. The space with this property is a suitable non convex subset of R^2 equipped with the l^\infty-norm and the Lebesgue measure. Combining many such spaces gives a (non…
New methods improve prediction regions for high-dimensional data.
problem Creating effective prediction regions for high-dimensional data.
method CD-split and HPD-split methods that combine split method and data-driven partition.
result CD-split and HPD-split converge to oracle highest predictive density set and satisfy local and asymptotic conditional validity.
This paper uses SLT to ensure learning guarantees in CD detection.
problem Lack of learning guarantees in CD detection algorithms.
method Adapting SLT assumptions to CD scenarios to ensure learning guarantees.
result Ensured learning guarantees in CD detection algorithms.
Machine learning extracts features from illiquid corporate bond yields.
problem Extracting features from illiquid corporate bond yields.
method Applied Denoising Autoencoder algorithm to learn features from liquid market data.
result Trained machine learning algorithm's results compared with 2D interpolation.
Learning algorithms for energy based Boltzmann architectures that rely on gradient descent are in general computationally prohibitive, typically due to the exponential number of terms involved in computing the partition function. In this way one has to resort to approximation schemes for the evaluation of the gradient.…
Study uncovers CDS anomalies leading to arbitrage profits.
problem Identifying arbitrage opportunities in CDS term structures.
method Derive No-arbitrage conditions for CDS term structures, analyze extensive dataset.
result Presented 2,416 pairs of anomalous CDS contracts.
New concept of illiquidity linked to credit risk, using Jarrow & Turnbull's analogy.
problem Understanding illiquidity in financial markets, especially with credit risk.
method Introduces a constraint-based notion of illiquidity, using Jarrow & Turnbull's foreign exchange analogy.
result A new mathematical framework for understanding illiquidity in financial markets.
This work addresses the problem of optimal pricing and hedging of a European option on an illiquid asset Z using two proxies: a liquid asset S and a liquid European option on another liquid asset Y. We assume that the S-hedge is dynamic while the Y-hedge is static. Using the indifference pricing approach we derive a HJ…
This paper is devoted to the analysis of metric measure spaces satisfying locally the curvature-dimension condition CD(K,N) introduced by the second author and also studied by Lott & Villani. We prove that the local version of CD(K,N) is equivalent to a global condition CD*(K,N), slightly weaker than the (usual, global…
Basel III introduces new capital charges for CVA. These charges, and the Basel 2.5 default capital charge can be mitigated by CDS. Therefore, to price in the capital relief that CDS contracts provide, we introduce a CDS pricing model with three legs: premium; default protection; and capital relief. If markets are compl…
Abstract shows entropy and convexity definitions of very strict spaces are equivalent.
problem Equivalence of definitions of very strict spaces.
method Showed equivalence of definitions using entropy functionals and full displacement convexity class.
result Equivalence of definitions of very strict spaces.
We study a problem of optimal investment/consumption over an infinite horizon in a market consisting of two possibly correlated assets: one liquid and one illiquid. The liquid asset is observed and can be traded continuously, while the illiquid one can be traded only at discrete random times corresponding to the jumps …
Estimating the log-likelihood gradient with respect to the parameters of a Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) typically requires sampling using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. To save computation time, the Markov chains are only run for a small number of steps, which leads to a biased estimate. This bias ca…
Machine Learning for Yield Curve Feature Extraction: Application to Illiquid Corporate Bondsq-fin.ST
The paper uses machine learning to predict missing yield parameters from liquid markets to illiquid corporate bonds.
problem Predicting missing yield parameters from illiquid corporate bonds.
method Applying Denoising Autoencoder (DAE) algorithm to historical data of liquid market instruments.
result DAE algorithm outperforms point-in-time inpainting algorithms in predicting unobserved yield surfaces.
Quantum annealer speeds up RBM training for image classification.
problem Training RBM with contrastive divergence (CD) is slow and computationally expensive.
method Used D-Wave 2000Q quantum annealer to calculate model expectation of gradient learning for RBM.
result Quantum training yields similar classification performance to CD but faster.
Almost-Riemannian manifolds fail to meet a synthetic curvature condition.
problem Proving almost-Riemannian manifolds do not satisfy the condition.
method Developed a new strategy to contradict the 1-dimensional condition.
result 2D and strongly regular almost-Riemannian manifolds do not satisfy for any and .
Management of the portfolios containing low liquidity assets is a tedious problem. The buyer proposes the price that can differ greatly from the paper value estimated by the seller, the seller, on the other hand, can not liquidate his portfolio instantly and waits for a more favorable offer. To minimize losses in this …
Uniform bounds on ends for non-branching CD spaces with nonnegative curvature outside a compact set.
problem Bounding the number of ends of non-branching CD spaces with nonnegative curvature outside a compact set.
method Adapting Z.-D. Liu's work to prove a ball covering property.
result Uniform bounds on the number of ends of such spaces.
We study insolvency cascades in an interbank system when banks are allowed to insure their loans with credit default swaps (CDS) sold by other banks. We show that, by properly shifting financial exposures from one institution to another, a CDS market can be designed to rewire the network of interbank exposures in a way…
Differentially private random block coordinate descent improves utility in machine learning.
problem Lack of privacy in classical CD methods when handling sensitive information.
method Proposes a differentially private random block coordinate descent method using sketch matrices and importance sampling.
result Demonstrates improved convergence rates and utility guarantees compared to non-private methods.
Healthy... Distress... Defaultq-fin.PR
Model predicts stock returns from CDS spreads, useful for trading.
problem Predicting stock returns from market sentiment.
method Simple model with regime switching, analytically tractable.
result Extracts expected returns from CDS spreads, useful for statistical arbitrage.
Nonlinear option pricing models for illiquid markets: scaling properties and explicit solutionsq-fin.PR
Several models for the pricing of derivative securities in illiquid markets are discussed. A typical type of nonlinear partial differential equations arising from these investigation is studied. The scaling properties of these equations are discussed. Explicit solutions for one of the models are obtained and studied.
A CDS Option Miscellanyq-fin.PR
CDS options allow investors to express a view on spread volatility and obtain a wider range of payoffs than are possible with vanilla CDS. We give a detailed exposition of different types of single-name CDS option, including options with upfront protection payment, recovery options and recovery swaps, and also presents…
Graphs satisfy Li-Yau inequality under curvature condition.
problem Proving Li-Yau inequality for graphs under condition.
method Introduced modified heat equation and used Bakry Emery curvature condition.
result Proved Li-Yau inequality under condition.
Study compares CDS databases and finds discrepancies due to various factors.
problem Comparing discrepancies among CDS databases.
method Comparing five major sources of corporate CDS prices over 2004-2010.
result CMA quotes lead price discovery and databases disagree on stock-CDS return analysis.
CD algorithm achieves near-optimal convergence rate for unnormalized models.
problem Training unnormalized models with high efficiency.
method Non-asymptotic analysis of contrastive divergence algorithm.
result CD can achieve convergence rate under regularity assumptions.
Develops optimal trading strategy for illiquid currency pairs.
problem Maximizes revenues for a broker liquidating an illiquid currency pair.
method Uses a currency triplet strategy, considering model ambiguity, and employs simulations.
result Mean P&L increases and standard deviation decreases as ambiguity aversion increases.
Study portfolio optimization with an exponential utility function and illiquid asset.
problem Optimizing a portfolio with a risk-free, liquid, and illiquid risky asset.
method Analytical substitution, Lie algebraic reduction, solving PDEs.
result Different optimization results for exponential utility function compared to HARA.
We prove generalized lower Ricci bounds for Euclidean and spherical cones over complete Riemannian manifolds. These cones are regarded as complete metric measure spaces. In general, they will be neither manifolds nor Alexandrov spaces. We show that the Euclidean cone over an n-dimensional Riemannian manifold whose Ricc…