Flow IV uses IVs to infer counterfactuals in complex models.
problem Identifying causal effects and counterfactual reasoning in nonseparable outcome models.
method Utilizes instrumental variables and normalizing flows to estimate and infer counterfactual outcomes.
result Identifies a method to make causal inferences from observed data in nonseparable models.
A new method learns IV representation from data to estimate causal effects.
problem Inferring causal effects from observational data with latent confounders.
method Disentangled representation learning using Variational AutoEncoder (VAE).
result The proposed method outperforms existing IV-based estimators and VAE-based estimators.
BGM-IV uses AI to estimate causal effects in complex data.
problem Estimating causal effects in high-dimensional, nonlinear settings with endogeneity.
method Structured latent generative modeling for posterior inference in a causally structured latent space.
result BGM-IV outperforms existing methods in high-dimensional covariate regimes.
Paper discovers valid IVs from data without domain knowledge.
problem Inferring causal effects from observational data with latent confounders.
method Data-driven algorithm based on partial ancestral graphs (PAGs).
result Discovering valid IVs leads to accurate causal effect estimation.
Ivy combines weak IV candidates to estimate causal effects robustly.
problem Estimating causal effects from observational data using weak or invalid IV candidates.
method Ivy synthesizes multiple weak IV candidates into a robust summary.
result Ivy produces more reliable causal effect estimates compared to allele scores.
Improved IV estimates by weighting on compliance reduces noise in treatment effect estimation.
problem Noisy IV estimates in settings with non-random treatment receipt.
method Weighting observations by estimated compliance, leveraging machine learning for compliance estimation.
result Compliance weighting reduces IV variance, improving precision of treatment effect estimates.
ZNet learns instrumental representations from covariates for causal inference.
problem Lack of valid instruments in observational studies.
method Representation learning approach that constructs instrumental representations from observed covariates.
result ZNet enables IV-based estimation without explicit instruments.
CgNN uses network structure as IVs to estimate causal effects in networks.
problem Hidden confounders complicate causal effect estimation in network data.
method CgNN combines GNNs and attention mechanisms to leverage network structure as IVs.
result CgNN effectively mitigates hidden confounder bias and improves causal effect estimation.
Paper develops a new estimator for panel data with endogenous treatments, improving causal inference.
problem Challenges in causal inference for static panel data with endogenous treatments and confounding variables.
method Develops Double Machine Learning (DML) estimator for static panel models with endogenous treatments (panel IV DML). Introduces weak-identification diagnostics.
result Panel IV DML estimator improves estimation accuracy and delivers more reliable inference under weak identification.
Novel quasi-Bayesian method for IV regression using machine learning models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in IV regression with machine learning models.
method Quasi-Bayesian procedure based on kernelized IV models and dual formulation.
result Established minimax optimal contraction rates and scalable inference algorithm.
Estimates price elasticity from autocorrelated time series using causal graphs.
problem Inconsistent IV estimators in autocorrelated time series data.
method Model equilibrium with unobserved confounders, derive DAG, and use graphical inference for valid IV estimators.
result Valid IV estimators improve understanding of economic dynamics.
New methods correct for time dependencies in IV regression for time series data.
problem Inferring causal effects from time series data with unobserved confounders.
method Proposes new methods for consistent estimation of causal effects in time series models using nuisance covariates and graph marginalization.
result Identifies and corrects for dependencies in the past, leading to consistent estimation of causal effects.
AI uses language models to find instrumental variables quickly.
problem Finding valid instrumental variables is a challenging and heuristic process.
method Uses large language models to search for new instrumental variables through narratives and counterfactual reasoning.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of multi-step and role-playing prompting strategies for LLMs.
This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the assignment to the treatment can be assumed to be randomized (irregular assignment mechan…
This paper introduces an innovative Bayesian machine learning algorithm to draw interpretable inference on heterogeneous causal effects in the presence of imperfect compliance (e.g., under an irregular assignment mechanism). We show, through Monte Carlo simulations, that the proposed Bayesian Causal Forest with Instrum…
Method constructs nonparametric prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees.
problem Nonparametric instrumental variable regression with finite-sample coverage.
method Conformal inference framework applied to NPIV, combining with various estimators.
result Distribution-free, finite-sample coverage over chosen IV shifts.
DML-CMR estimator reduces bias in CMR problems using deep neural networks.
problem Solving conditional moment restrictions with deep neural networks.
method Double/debiased machine learning framework for unbiased estimation.
result Achieves minimax optimal convergence rate of O(N−1/2). New RL algorithms correct bias in dynamic data analysis.
problem Dynamic data generation and analysis create endogeneity issues.
method Instrument variable (IV)-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms.
result Established theoretical properties of IV-RL algorithms.
New method uses data augmentation to improve causal effect estimation.
problem Improving causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Introduces IV-like regression and data augmentation techniques.
result Data augmentation can simulate worst-case scenarios for causal estimation.
DFIV uses deep neural nets to learn nonlinear features in IV regression.
problem Learning causal relationships from observational data with nonlinear interactions.
method DFIV trains deep neural nets to define nonlinear features on instruments and treatments, alternating training to compose stages 1 and 2.
result DFIV outperforms state-of-the-art methods on IV benchmarks and off-policy policy evaluation.
BRACE addresses noncompliance in bandits, offering methods for recommendation and treatment policies.
problem Noncompliance in bandit problems complicates learning objectives and treatment effects.
method BRACE formalizes objective-choice, identifies direct-control regimes, and proposes a phase-doubling algorithm for IV inversion.
result BRACE delivers valid policy values and structural uncertainty, even under weak identification and homogeneity failure.
DML-IV improves IV regression for learning decision policies by reducing bias.
problem Spurious correlations in offline datasets caused by hidden confounders.
method Double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework to reduce bias in two-stage IV regression.
result DML-IV outperforms state-of-the-art methods and learns high-performing policies.
The paper tackles ICU discharge strategies by evaluating optimal stopping scenarios.
problem Optimal stopping in ICU discharge with complex causal inference challenges.
method Generalized g-formula implementation and application to MIMIC-IV dataset.
result Improved ICU discharge strategies demonstrated with the g-formula approach.
Study on estimating causal effects with limited data and multiple environments.
problem Estimating causal effects under hidden confounding with unpaired data and sparse effects.
method Instrumental variable (IV) regression with cross-fold sample splitting and ℓ1-regularized estimation. result Proposed GMM-type estimator is consistent as the number of environments grows.
Method selects valid IVs from a large set using clustering and test of overidentifying restrictions.
problem Selecting valid instrumental variables from a large set of candidates.
method Agglomerative hierarchical clustering combined with a test of overidentifying restrictions.
result Achieves oracle properties when the largest group of IVs is valid.
Develops framework for estimating and improving DTRs with time-varying IV in the presence of unmeasured confounding.
problem Estimating DTRs from observational data with unmeasured confounding.
method Time-varying instrumental variable (IV) framework for estimating and improving DTRs.
result IV-optimal and IV-improved DTRs perform better than DTRs assuming no unmeasured confounding.
We propose a direction of arrival (DOA) estimation method that combines sound-intensity vector (IV)-based DOA estimation and DNN-based denoising and dereverberation. Since the accuracy of IV-based DOA estimation degrades due to environmental noise and reverberation, two DNNs are used to remove such effects from the obs…
Paper introduces EnCounteR for estimating causal effects using encouragement data.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects due to incomplete randomization and limited encouragement data.
method Introduces a generalized IV estimator, EnCounteR, leveraging both observational and encouragement data.
result Demonstrates superior performance of EnCounteR over existing methods.
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for an identified set's boundary (i.e., support function) where the selection among a very large number of covariates is based on modern regularized tools. I characterize the boundary using a semiparametric moment equation. Combining Neyman-orthogonality and sample s…
New method improves IV estimation with many weak and invalid instruments.
problem Identification in linear IV models with unknown validity.
method Non-convex penalized approaches, surrogate sparsest penalty.
result Advantages over other IV estimators in selection consistency and weak IV strength conditions.
Proposes MRIV framework for unbiased CATE estimation using binary IVs.
problem Bias in estimating CATEs due to unobserved confounders.
method Multiply robust machine learning framework (MRIV) for binary IVs.
result MRIV yields multiple robust convergence rates and outperforms existing methods.
DIV estimates entire interventional distribution using generative modeling.
problem Estimating entire interventional distribution in presence of unmeasured confounding.
method Distributional Instrumental Variable (DIV) using generative modeling.
result DIV identifies causal effects under 'under-identified' cases, improving over existing IV approaches.
Leveraging advances in variational inference, we propose to enhance recurrent neural networks with latent variables, resulting in Stochastic Recurrent Networks (STORNs). The model i) can be trained with stochastic gradient methods, ii) allows structured and multi-modal conditionals at each time step, iii) features a re…
Study integrates implied Hurst exponent into IV models for better market efficiency.
problem Capturing market efficiency in IV models based on moneyness.
method Developed an IV model integrating implied Hurst exponent H, optimizing across multiple indexes.
result Model outperforms SABR and fSABR in accuracy, capturing IV-H dynamics.
Develops a statistical test for IV, improving feature selection reliability.
problem Lack of statistical justification in conventional IV-based feature selection.
method Establishes connection with Jeffreys divergence and proposes a nonparametric hypothesis test.
result The J-Divergence test provides rigorous guarantees and is more reliable than traditional IV thresholds.
Unified framework for causal inference with reliable uncertainty quantification.
problem Causal inference under unobserved confounding with unreliable uncertainty quantification.
method Deconditional Gaussian Process (DGP) framework for uncertainty-aware causal learning.
result Strong predictive performance and informative uncertainty quantification.
New method uses few instruments to estimate complex causal effects.
problem Estimating causal effects with limited instruments in high-dimensional settings.
method Sequentially selects and combines instruments to estimate the treatment effect.
result Can reliably recover the treatment effect's projection onto the instrumented subspace.
The study finds a liquidity premium in stock returns, but only after correcting for microstructure noise.
problem The positive association between expected idiosyncratic volatility and expected stock returns.
method Developed a novel method to eliminate microstructure influences from stock returns and estimate idiosyncratic volatility.
result The liquidity premium in value-weighted portfolios is driven by liquidity in the prior month after correcting for microstructure noise.
Researchers create benchmarks to compare graph inference methods.
problem Comparing graph inference methods is difficult due to varying downstream tasks.
method Developed benchmarks for various graph tasks.
result Contrasted prominent graph inference techniques.
For later use in subsequent upcoming arxiv.org prepublications, basic foundational material on local, smooth or real analytic, CR-generic submanifolds of complex Euclidean spaces is developed from scratch, with strong emphasis on the interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic aspects, a constructive option that commands…
This study examines how earnings announcements affect option volatility and pricing.
problem The impact of earnings announcements on option volatility and pricing.
method Analysis of extremely short-term options data to study bimodality and concavity in IV curves.
result Investors pay a premium to hedge against extreme volatility during earnings announcements in the presence of concave IV smiles.
Combines IV and observational data to estimate CATEs with low compliance and unobserved confounding.
problem Estimating CATEs in personalized medicine and analytics with observational data and weak IVs.
method Two-stage framework: first learns biased CATEs from observational data, then corrects using IV data.
result Effective in estimating CATEs with low compliance and unobserved confounding.
Symmetry reduction of Painlevé IV to Flaschka-Newell Painlevé II
problem Isomonodromic deformation problem associated with rank-two meromorphic connections
method Symmetry Ψ(−λ)=σ1Ψ(λ)σ1 result Induced isomonodromic dynamics coincides with Flaschka-Newell Painlevé II hierarchy
The purpose of this erratum is to fill a gap in the proof of the `Composite Braid Theorem' in the manuscript "Studying Links Via Closed Braids IV: Composite Links and Split Links (SLVCB-IV)", Inventiones Math, \{bf 102\} Fasc. 1 (1990), 115-139. The statement of the theorem is unchanged. The gap occurs on page 135, lin…
This paper explores how IV methods can improve Q-function estimates in offline policy evaluation.
problem Confounding in estimating Q-function using reinforcement learning.
method Integrates IV techniques into offline policy evaluation (OPE) to improve Q-function estimates.
result State-of-the-art OPE methods are closely matched in performance by some IV methods.
WamOL uses PINNs to efficiently calibrate IVS from sparse data.
problem Calibrating time-dependent IVS from sparse market data.
method Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) with adaptive reweighting.
result WamOL outperforms in calibrating intraday IVS from uneven data.
This note corrects an erroneous statement in Lemma 3.8 of the author's paper Embedded Contact Homology and Seiberg-Witten Floer Homology IV which was published in Volume 14 of Geometry and Topology in 2009.
We examine the efficiency of the Asymmetric Power ARCH (APARCH) model in the case where the residuals follow the standardized Pearson type IV distribution. The model is tested with a variety of loss functions and the efficiency is examined via application of several statistical tests and risk measures. The results indi…