Two new covariance estimators for ROOT-SGD improve statistical inference.
problem Uncertainty measurement for ROOT-SGD's normal distribution estimator.
method Developed two covariance estimators: plug-in and Hessian-free.
result Hessian-free estimator is asymptotically consistent and Hessian-free.
A genetic algorithm improves multivariate kernel density estimation.
problem Efficiently estimating multivariate kernel density functions.
method Genetic algorithm applied to subsamples of the original data.
result The genetic algorithm-based estimator performs better than traditional methods.
Estimates smooth functions and their derivatives from noisy data.
problem Estimating smooth functions and their derivatives from noisy data.
method Least squares estimators and minimizers of smoothness subject to error bounds.
result Consistent estimators with convergence rates as n increases.
Quantum method improves neural density estimation in high dimensions.
problem High-dimensional density estimation with poor performance and high computational complexity.
method Adaptive Fourier features based on quantum density matrices, integrated with neural networks.
result Competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods in various datasets.
Private estimation of many quantiles using differential privacy.
problem Estimating quantiles of a distribution privately.
method Two approaches: 1) Private estimation of empirical quantiles, 2) Uniform density estimation.
result There is a tradeoff between estimating quantiles at specific points and uniformly estimating the quantile function.
New estimator reduces variance in discrete random variables.
problem Estimating gradients for discrete random variables with reduced variance.
method Sampling without replacement and Rao-Blackwellization.
result Our estimator is the most consistent gradient estimator across different entropy settings.
PULSE estimator improves prediction in causal inference with bounded interventions.
problem Optimizing causal models for bounded interventions.
method Relates K-class estimators to anchor regression, introduces PULSE estimator for minimization of mean squared prediction error with bounded constraints.
result PULSE estimator outperforms other estimators in real data and simulation experiments, especially in weak instrument settings.
Paper finds a graph Steklov eigenvalue estimate with rigidity results.
problem Estimating Steklov eigenvalues on graphs.
method Lichnerowicz-type estimate for the first Steklov eigenvalues.
result Rigidity results for the Steklov eigenvalues on graphs.
Unified estimate for complex Monge-Ampère equations on Kähler manifolds.
problem Estimating solutions to complex Monge-Ampère equations on Kähler manifolds.
method Unified approach using PDE methods and entropy bounds to construct comparison metrics.
result Improves previous results on modulus of continuity, stability, and W1,1-estimates of Green's functions. Estimating properties of discrete distributions is a fundamental problem in statistical learning. We design the first unified, linear-time, competitive, property estimator that for a wide class of properties and for all underlying distributions uses just 2n samples to achieve the performance attained by the empirical…
Empirical median performs well in estimating location with varying scales.
problem Estimating location with varying scales in data.
method Analysis of empirical median as an estimator.
result Matching upper and lower bounds on estimation error.
A significant hurdle for analyzing large sample data is the lack of effective statistical computing and inference methods. An emerging powerful approach for analyzing large sample data is subsampling, by which one takes a random subsample from the original full sample and uses it as a surrogate for subsequent computati…
Bayesian model averaging improves causal effect estimation by averaging over multiple models.
problem Estimating causal effects under linear Structural Causal Models (SCMs).
method Bayesian model averaging using Gaussian scale mixture distributions for computational efficiency.
result Bayesian model averaging is optimal for causal effect estimation.
We formalize notions of robustness for composite estimators via the notion of a breakdown point. A composite estimator successively applies two (or more) estimators: on data decomposed into disjoint parts, it applies the first estimator on each part, then the second estimator on the outputs of the first estimator. And …
Paper proposes real-time VaR estimation using quantile regression forest with conformal calibration.
problem Real-time estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) in rapidly changing markets.
method Quantile regression forest trained offline, real-time VaR estimates via observed risk factors, conformalized estimator for reliability.
result The proposed method provides reliable real-time VaR estimates.
New collaborative algorithm improves personalized mean estimation in online settings.
problem Online estimation of means from multiple, possibly overlapping distributions.
method Novel collaborative strategy for active querying and mean estimation.
result Algorithm improves mean estimates through communication among agents.
Sharp bounds for high-probability estimation of discrete distributions.
problem Estimating discrete distributions with high probability under χ2-divergence. method Sharp upper and lower bounds for the classical Laplace estimator, and characterization of minimax high-probability risk for any estimator.
result Sharp bounds for high-probability estimation of discrete distributions can be achieved through a simple smoothing strategy.
The ability to perform offline A/B-testing and off-policy learning using logged contextual bandit feedback is highly desirable in a broad range of applications, including recommender systems, search engines, ad placement, and personalized health care. Both offline A/B-testing and off-policy learning require a counterfa…
Adaptive estimation for nonstationary time series reduces computational cost.
problem Estimating parameters of nonstationary time series with varying parameters over time.
method Moving exponential moving ML estimator for scale parameter estimation.
result Significantly improved log-likelihoods compared to standard estimation.
Estimates complex Hessian integral for complex Monge-Ampère equations.
problem Improving classical ABP estimate for complex settings.
method De Giorgi iteration method for complex Monge-Ampère equations.
result Sharp gradient estimates for complex Monge-Ampère equations.
New method optimizes risk estimation for financial losses.
problem Estimating expected shortfall risk for heavy-tailed distributions.
method Proposes a novel estimator for expected shortfall robust to data corruption.
result Demonstrates superior performance and robustness compared to classical methods.
Proposes a new method to estimate individual treatment effects using unlabeled data.
problem Difficult estimation of individual treatment effects due to high costs of intervention studies.
method Combines causal inference matching and semi-supervised learning label propagation.
result Demonstrates successful mitigation of data scarcity in ITE estimation.
Consistent estimator derived for confounding strength in observational data.
problem Estimating confounding strength in observational data is challenging due to unobserved confounders.
method Derived and adapted a consistent estimator using tools from random matrix theory.
result The original estimator is not consistent, but an adapted one is.
Adapts to estimate functions from noisy ERT data.
problem Estimating functions from noisy Exponential Radon Transform data.
method Locally adaptive kernel type estimator for functions of varying smoothness.
result Achieves minimax optimal rate up to a log(n) factor for Sobolev functions.
New framework converts offline to online estimation using black-box offline estimators.
problem Convert offline estimation algorithms to online estimation algorithms.
method Oracle-Efficient Online Estimation (OEOE) framework.
result Achieves near-optimal online estimation error via black-box offline estimators.
Conditional Leibniz Derivative Estimation reduces variance in stochastic models.
problem Estimating derivatives in stochastic models with discontinuous sample performance.
method Combining push-out likelihood ratio method with Leibniz integral rules.
result Conditional Leibniz estimator reduces variance and is easy to implement.
Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is essential in medicine. A central challenge in estimating the ITE is handling confounders, which are factors that affect both an intervention and its outcome. Most previous work relies on the unconfoundedness assumption, which posits that all th…
Centered plug-in estimators reduce bias in Wasserstein distance estimation.
problem Conservative bias in plug-in estimators of Wasserstein distances.
method Centering procedure based on linear combinations to reduce bias.
result Centered plug-in estimators provide informative upper and lower bounds on Wasserstein distances.
Estimates conditional mutual information using a minmax formulation.
problem Estimating conditional mutual information in high dimensions.
method Uses a minmax optimization problem to train a neural network.
result Improves estimation accuracy compared to existing methods.
New estimator avoids overfitting in convex regression.
problem Overfitting near boundaries in convex regression.
method Minimizes sum of squared errors with a penalty on subgradient.
result Uniform almost sure consistency and convergence rates established.
This work extends Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage to unknown mean covariance estimation.
problem Large dimensional covariance matrix estimation with unknown mean under Kolmogorov asymptotics.
method Extending Ledoit-Wolf linear shrinkage to translation-invariant estimators, proving their convergence properties.
result A new estimator outperforms other standard estimators empirically.
SUMO provides unbiased log marginal likelihood estimation for latent variable models.
problem Biased estimates of log marginal likelihood in latent variable models.
method Randomized truncation of infinite series for unbiased estimation.
result Models trained with SUMO give better test-set likelihoods than standard methods.
This paper examines the precision of estimators of Quantile-Based Risk Measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall, Spectral Risk Measures). It first addresses the question of how to estimate the precision of these estimators, and proposes a Monte Carlo method that is free of some of the limitations of existing approac…
A new contrastive MI estimator improves efficiency and tightness.
problem Efficient and tight mutual information estimation.
method Contrastive Fenchel-Legendre optimization.
result The FLO estimator is tight and converges under stochastic gradient descent.
We present a new trace estimator of the matrix whose explicit form is not given but its matrix multiplication to a vector is available. The form of the estimator is similar to the Hutchison stochastic trace estimator, but instead of the random noise vectors in Hutchison estimator, we use small number of probing vectors…
New linear algorithms improve wSVMs for multiclass probability estimation.
problem Estimating conditional probabilities for multiclass problems.
method Proposed baseline learning and OVA learning schemes to improve wSVMs.
result Linear algorithms achieve optimal computational efficiency and good estimation accuracy.
Estimates submanifold diameters in curved spaces.
problem Estimating the intrinsic diameter of submanifolds in curved spaces.
method Using mean curvature field integrals and boundary lengths.
result Diameter estimates for submanifolds in curved spaces.
Extends covariance estimation with multiple targets for better performance.
problem Improving covariance estimation for multiple targets.
method Combines multiple constant matrices with sample covariance matrix, derives estimators and proves convergence.
result The multi-target linear shrinkage estimator outperforms other estimators in various situations.
In this paper, we propose an adaptive group lasso procedure to efficiently estimate structural breaks in cointegrating regressions. It is well-known that the group lasso estimator is not simultaneously estimation consistent and model selection consistent in structural break settings. Hence, we use a first step group la…
Proposes EM for sparse horseshoe estimation.
problem Sparse estimation of sparse parameter vectors using the horseshoe prior.
method Expectation-Maximisation (EM) procedure for MAP estimates.
result Our approach performs comparable or superior to state-of-the-art methods.
This paper introduces a simple and efficient density estimator that enables fast systematic search. To show its advantage over commonly used kernel density estimator, we apply it to outlying aspects mining. Outlying aspects mining discovers feature subsets (or subspaces) that describe how a query stand out from a given…
We propose an estimation method for the conditional mode when the conditioning variable is high-dimensional. In the proposed method, we first estimate the conditional density by solving quantile regressions multiple times. We then estimate the conditional mode by finding the maximum of the estimated conditional density…
Estimation of density derivatives is a versatile tool in statistical data analysis. A naive approach is to first estimate the density and then compute its derivative. However, such a two-step approach does not work well because a good density estimator does not necessarily mean a good density-derivative estimator. In t…
Paper develops a consistent estimator for discrete mixture models.
problem Estimating mixing probability density in discrete mixture models.
method Develops an L1 consistent estimator under specific conditions. result Consistent estimation of mixing probability density for every density f. A fast method estimates stability of ensemble feature selectors.
problem Improving stability of ensemble feature selectors for better prediction.
method Simulator of a feature selector to estimate stability.
result Reduces computation time for estimating stability.
Directly estimates CQC, improving interpretability and accuracy.
problem Inability to model and interpret CQC due to inversion issue.
method Direct doubly robust estimation of CQC without inversion.
result Improved estimation accuracy and interpretability.
AQFC method estimates mesh curvatures using quadratic surfaces.
problem Estimating curvatures for irregular polygonal meshes.
method Local approximation of vertices and normals by quadratic surfaces, computed as implicit surfaces.
result AQFC provides robust curvature estimation for irregular meshes.
New theory of sensitivity for unbiased estimators using Wasserstein geometry.
problem Estimating the instability of estimators under small perturbations.
method Developed a new theory based on Wasserstein geometry, analogous to classical Cramér-Rao theory.
result Wasserstein-Cramér-Rao lower bound for sensitivity of unbiased estimators.