Study finds dividend policy has no significant effect on IPO stock prices.
problem Impact of dividend policy on IPO price performance.
method Long-run performance statistics and GARCH model, dummy variable used.
result Dividend policy has no significant effect on IPO stock prices.
Study shows registration regime improves IPO pricing efficiency in China.
problem Improving IPO pricing efficiency in China's entrepreneurial boards.
method Examined the impacts of regime changes and rule implementations on IPO pricing efficiency.
result The registration regime is most efficient in Chinese IPO pricing.
This study examines how ChiNext IPOs' initial returns are influenced by regulation regime changes.
problem Investors' behavior and pricing of ChiNext IPOs under different regulation regimes.
method Analysis of three time periods with two different regulation regimes and three sets of listing day trading restrictions.
result Regulation regime changes significantly impact ChiNext IPO pricing and overreaction.
Study finds billing codes at IPO boost digital health companies' financial performance.
problem Identifying factors that drive long-term financial success in digital health companies.
method Analyzed 33 digital health IPOs from 2010-2021, comparing companies with and without billing codes.
result Companies with billing codes at IPO were significantly more likely to achieve positive CAGR and higher market capitalization.
Social media hype can misprice IPO stocks, leading to short-term gains but long-term losses.
problem Mispricing of IPO stocks due to social media hype.
method Analysis of investor emotions on StockTwits and Twitter.
result High pre-IPO enthusiasm leads to higher short-term returns but lower long-term returns.
Biotech IPOs in Q1 2021: advanced degrees, clinical trials, and IP key.
problem Identifying traits of biotech startups that go public.
method Database of biotech IPOs, analysis of leadership, technology, clinical trials, and financing.
result Advanced degrees, clinical trials, and IP are important for biotech startups.
Study uses LLMs to optimize VC exit timing after IPO.
problem Optimal exit timing after IPO is crucial but not well studied.
method Uses LLMs to analyze financial data and market signals.
result LLMs can improve VC exit timing and generate better returns.
New method accurately reconstructs Russell 3000 index, revealing crowded portfolios.
problem Crowding in index portfolios during reconstitution events.
method Developed a Python package for accurate index reconstruction using CRSP US Stock data.
result Annual Russell 3000 portfolios are more crowded than quarterly ones, suggesting lower transaction costs.
Recent academic work has developed a method to determine, in real time, if a given stock is exhibiting a price bubble. Currently there is speculation in the financial press concerning the existence of a price bubble in the aftermath of the recent IPO of LinkedIn. We analyze stock price tick data from the short lifetime…
Paper shows equivalence between two alignment methods and introduces a new algorithm.
problem Ensuring human alignment of large language models for useful, safe, and pleasant user experience.
method Introduces IPO-MD algorithm, showing equivalence between IPO and Nash-MD methods.
result Equivalence between IPO and Nash-MD methods proven when considering online version of IPO.
A new method to value IPOed companies.
problem Valuing companies after IPO.
method Growth Average U1 method.
result Benchmark stocks using linear extrapolation of revenues and profits.
The complex networks approach has been gaining popularity in analysing investor behaviour and stock markets, but within this approach, initial public offerings (IPO) have barely been explored. We fill this gap in the literature by analysing investor clusters in the first two years after the IPO filing in the Helsinki S…
IPO Finance Agent evaluates LLMs on SpaceX IPO due diligence, surpassing Finance Agent v2.
problem Evaluating language models on financial tasks like IPO due diligence.
method Introducing IPO Finance Agent and an evaluator-optimizer pipeline.
result The best-performing model reaches 79.4% accuracy at 0.30 USD per query.
Empirical study of CAPM and Fama-French model in Chinese A-share market.
problem Testing and validating CAPM and Fama-French model in Chinese A-share market.
method Used Fama-MacBeth regression and Fama-French three-factor model to analyze Chinese A-share trading data from 2000 to 2019, adjusting for IPO shell value contamination.
result Fama-French model captures most of A-share market returns, with adjusted R-squared > 0.88.
IPO Finance Agent extends Finance Agent v2 for SpaceX S-1 filings, improving accuracy and cost-efficiency.
problem Evaluating IPO due diligence tasks with long-form documents.
method Extended task domain, improved agentic harness with contextual retrieval, automated rubric generation.
result Best-performing model reaches 79.8% accuracy, cost-efficient model at 77.2% with 0.05 USD per query.
In this paper, we study reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms to solve real-world decision problems with the objective of maximizing the long-term reward as well as satisfying cumulative constraints. We propose a novel first-order policy optimization method, Interior-point Policy Optimization (IPO), which augments the…
On December 16th, 2011, Zynga, the well-known social game developing company went public. This event followed other recent IPOs in the world of social networking companies, such as Groupon or Linkedin among others. With a valuation close to 7 billion USD at the time when it went public, Zynga became one of the biggest …
Study investor attention using search volume data before and after mobile device popularity.
problem Accurately measure investor attention in a fast-paced market.
method Compare investor attention using search volume data before and after mobile device popularization.
result Investor attention measured using search volume data is more accurate and faster after mobile device popularization.
Within the Private Equity (PE) market, the event of a private company undertaking an Initial Public Offering (IPO) is usually a very high-return one for the investors in the company. For this reason, an effective predictive model for the IPO event is considered as a valuable tool in the PE market, an endeavor in which …
On December 16, Zynga, the well-known social game developing company went public. This event is following other recent IPOs in the world of social networking companies, such as Groupon, Linkedin or Pandora to cite a few. With a valuation close to 7 billion USD at the time when it went public, Zynga has become the bigge…
Study predicts startup outcomes like funding, patenting, IPOs using machine learning.
problem Forecasting startup success metrics like funding, patenting, IPOs.
method Developed interpretable machine learning framework, used preprocessing, class imbalance handling, and compared multiple models.
result Achieved high AUROC values for patent, funding, and exit predictions.
We propose an option approach for pricing bond illiquidity that is reminiscent of the celebrated work of Longstaff (1995) on the non-marketability of some non-dividend-paying shares in IPOs. This approach describes a quite common situation in the fixed income market: it is rather usual to find issuers that, besides liq…
Paper tackles reinforcement learning generalization through invariant policy optimization.
problem Learning policies that generalize beyond training domains.
method Invariant policy optimization principle and novel learning algorithm IPO.
result Significant improvements in generalization performance on unseen domains.
Recurrent Networks are one of the most powerful and promising artificial neural network algorithms to processing the sequential data such as natural languages, sound, time series data. Unlike traditional feed-forward network, Recurrent Network has a inherent feed back loop that allows to store the temporal context info…
SAIL improves online alignment of large language models with minimal feedback.
problem Offline RLHF methods often lead to sub-optimal performance due to fixed preference datasets.
method SAIL uses bilevel optimization and a single-level first-order method to iteratively refine model alignment.
result SAIL significantly improves alignment performance on open-sourced datasets with minimal computational overhead.
Study analyzes profitability and efficiency of Chinese banks, finding state-owned banks superior.
problem Analyzing efficiency and profitability of Chinese banks over time.
method Used Data envelopment analysis (Super-SBM-UND-VRS based DEA) model considering non-performing loans as undesired output.
result State-owned banks and Rural/City Commercial Banks have better profitability super-efficiency than Joint-stock Banks.
We present a novel methodology to determine the fundamental value of firms in the social-networking sector based on two ingredients: (i) revenues and profits are inherently linked to its user basis through a direct channel that has no equivalent in other sectors; (ii) the growth of the number of users can be calibrated…
This paper explores how imperfect reward models can improve online RLHF.
problem Sample efficiency in online RLHF from imperfect reward models.
method Identifies policy coverability and proposes TPO algorithm for transfer learning.
result TPO algorithm improves sample efficiency compared to standard online learning.
A new method for RLHF using proximal point Nash learning.
problem Capturing real human preferences in RLHF.
method Proximal point Nash learning, embedding self-play updates into a proximal point framework.
result High-probability last-iterate convergence for the combined method.
This paper studies how relative performance concerns affect stock prices in a tree-like market model.
problem The impact of relative performance concerns on stock prices in a tree-like market model.
method Mean-field equilibrium analysis in a binomial tree framework with exponential utility.
result Existence and uniqueness of market-clearing mean-field equilibrium in both single- and multi-population settings.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
We consider the problem of evaluating the quality of startup companies. This can be quite challenging due to the rarity of successful startup companies and the complexity of factors which impact such success. In this work we collect data on tens of thousands of startup companies, their performance, the backgrounds of t…
We study a practical optimization problems for venture capital investments and/or Research and Development (R&D) investments. The first problem is that, given the amount of the initial investment and the reward function at the initial public offering (IPO) market, the venture capitalist wants to maximize overall discou…
New approach for pricing evaluation improves on existing methods.
problem Improving off-policy evaluation for personalized pricing.
method Balanced policy evaluation framework with worst-case optimization.
result Empirical advantage over existing methods in pricing applications.
New model fusion method improves Bitcoin price prediction accuracy.
problem Improving robustness in financial price prediction models.
method Combinatorial Fusion Analysis (CFA) combining score and rank combinations.
result Significantly improved MAPE performance of 0.19\%.
This paper presents the results of the Dynamic Pricing Challenge, held on the occasion of the 17th INFORMS Revenue Management and Pricing Section Conference on June 29-30, 2017 in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. For this challenge, participants submitted algorithms for pricing and demand learning of which the numerical per…
EB improves asset pricing by mining large strategies without lookahead bias.
problem Lack of unbiased asset pricing models with out-of-sample performance.
method Empirical Bayes applied to 136,000 long-short strategies.
result EB provides unbiased predictions with transparent intuition.
Predicting the exit (e.g. bankrupt, acquisition, etc.) of privately held companies is a current and relevant problem for investment firms. The difficulty of the problem stems from the lack of reliable, quantitative and publicly available data. In this paper, we contribute to this endeavour by constructing an exit predi…
Although the growth of share-based payments with performance conditions (hereafter, SPPC) is prominent today, the theoretical price of SPPC has not been sufficiently studied. Reflecting such a situation, the current accounting standards for share-based payments issued in 2004 have had many problems. This paper develops…
This research examines relationship between staging of Venture Capital (VC) investments and social feedback visible in publicly available data on the Web. We address the question of Venture Capital investment sensitivity to performance and prospects of new venture, given as likelihood of obtaining future financing, ava…
Predicting startup success using Crunchbase data and deep learning.
problem Predicting startup success in a volatile entrepreneurial ecosystem.
method Novel deep learning model integrating funding metrics, founder features, and industry category.
result Achieved 14 times capital growth and identified high-potential startups.
QLBS and RLOP methods improve option pricing and hedging performance.
problem Improving option pricing and hedging performance under market frictions.
method Incorporates risk aversion and trading costs into QLBS, proposes RLOP approach.
result RLOP outperforms in dynamic hedging by reducing shortfall probability.
Study evaluates cryptocurrency option pricing models, finds Kou and Bates models perform best.
problem High volatility and low liquidity in cryptocurrency futures contracts make traditional option pricing models unreliable.
method Calibrated and evaluated the performance of six option pricing models (Black-Scholes, Merton Jump Diffusion, Variance Gamma, Kou, Heston, and Bates) on BTC and ETH futures options.
result Kou and Bates models achieve the lowest pricing errors, with Kou outperforming Bates for BTC and ETH options respectively.
The study approximates option prices using Hermite polynomials without assuming a specific distribution.
problem Approximating option prices without assuming a specific distribution of returns.
method Approximating the logarithmic return's density by a linear combination of rescaled Hermite polynomials.
result Empirical results suggest reasonable performance for options with moderate strike prices.
SPPO optimizes language model alignment by treating preferences as a game and achieving state-of-the-art performance.
problem Capturing intransitivity and irrationality in human preferences for accurate language model alignment.
method Self-play-based approach to identify Nash equilibrium policy through iterative policy updates.
result SPPO achieves state-of-the-art win-rate of 28.53% on AlpacaEval 2.0 without external supervision.
StonkBERT predicts stock price movements using company text data.
problem Can language models predict medium-run stock price movements?
method Fine-tuning transformer-based language models (BERT) on company text data (news articles, blogs, annual reports) for stock price performance classification.
result StonkBERT shows substantial improvement in predictive accuracy compared to traditional models, with news articles providing the best results.
New risk theory for 'Pay-for-Performance' models.
problem How to price and hedge operational and financial risks in new business models.
method Developed a new risk theory and calculation method for 'Pay-for-Performance' models.
result Presented a model for determining risk premiums including both financial and operational risks.
Hybrid approach improves crude oil price forecasting using multi-scale data.
problem Forecasting crude oil prices with multi-scale data.
method Hybrid approach combining K-means, KPCA, and KELM.
result Hybrid approach outperforms traditional methods in both level and directional forecasting accuracy.