Study uses IMFs and neural networks to predict economic time series, enhancing interpretability.
problem Improving prediction accuracy and interpretability of economic time series.
method Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) derived from economic time series, combined with DeepSHAP for interpretability.
result The last IMFs are most influential, and high-frequency IMFs introduce noise.
This study applies EMD to MSCI World index and converts IMFs into graphs for GNN modeling.
problem Modeling financial time series with GNNs.
method EMD, CEEMDAN, graph transformations (natural visibility, horizontal visibility, recurrence, transition graphs), topological analysis.
result High-frequency IMFs yield dense, highly connected small-world graphs; low-frequency IMFs produce sparser networks.
Different investment strategies are adopted in short-term and long-term depending on the time scales, even though time scales are adhoc in nature. Empirical mode decomposition based Hurst exponent analysis and variance technique have been applied to identify the time scales for short-term and long-term investment from …
Paper provides exponential convergence guarantees for Iterative Markovian Fitting.
problem Addressing the Schrödinger Bridge problem in computational optimal transport and generative modeling.
method Develops non-asymptotic exponential convergence guarantees for Iterative Markovian Fitting.
result First non-asymptotic exponential convergence guarantees for IMF under mild structural assumptions.
Hybrid model forecasts Bitcoin prices better than standard LSTM.
problem Forecasting Bitcoin price fluctuations.
method VMD for decomposition, LSTM for modeling IMFs, final prediction aggregation.
result Hybrid model outperforms standard LSTM in various metrics.
New algorithm improves on existing methods for solving transport problems.
problem Finding a map to transport one distribution to another.
method Iterative Markovian Fitting (IMF) and Diffusion Schrödinger Bridge Matching (DSBM).
result DSBM significantly improves over previous SB numerics and recovers various transport methods.
New method solves tree-structured Schrödinger Bridge problems.
problem Computing Schrödinger Bridge between tree-structured distributions.
method Iterative Markovian Fitting (IMF) procedure for tree-structured costs.
result Extends IMF to tree-structured Schrödinger Bridge problems.
In this paper, a unified susceptible-exposed-infected-susceptible-aware (SEIS-A) framework is proposed to combine epidemic spreading with individuals' on-line self-consultation behaviors. An epidemic spreading prediction model is established based on the SEIS-A framework. The prediction process contains two phases. In …
Unfulfilled expectations from macro-economic initiatives during the Great Recession and the massive shift into globalization echo today with political upheaval, anti-establishment propaganda, and looming trade/currency wars that threaten domestic and international value chains. Once stable entities like the EU now look…
Extends diffusion-based Schrödinger bridge models to handle time-dependent potentials.
problem Approximating optimal transport dynamics between two boundary distributions with a twisted Brownian motion reference.
method Introduces Twisted Schrödinger Bridge Matching (TSBM) using the Iterative Markovian Fitting (IMF) paradigm, incorporating a gradient-dependent bridge-matching loss.
result Improves trajectory inference across high-dimensional settings, including crowd navigation and single-cell data.
This study proposes methods for multi-step-ahead stock price prediction using decomposition and neural networks.
problem Inaccurate one-step-ahead forecasting limits stock market decision-making.
method Two novel methods: DCT-MFRFNN and VMD-MFRFNN.
result VMD-MFRFNN outperforms other methods in multi-step-ahead stock price prediction.
New proof of Lie-Tresse theorem with computational advantages.
problem Equivalence problem for PDEs under point transformations.
method Involutive moving frames and constructive moving frame method.
result First general upper bound on minimal differential invariants.
New neural network extracts signal components and their IFs from non-uniform samples.
problem Recovering signal components and their IFs from discrete blind-source data.
method Inspired by theory, deep neural network extends Hilbert transform and synchrosqueezed wavelet transform.
result Neural network resolves inverse problem for non-uniformly sampled data.
Paper forecasts tax revenues in Bulgaria during pandemic.
problem Forecasting tax revenues during pandemic.
method Model based on IMF recommendations, using 1995-2019 data.
result Pandemic negatively impacts tax revenues, but econometrics can still produce forecasts.
MSBM extends SB for multi-marginal trajectory inference.
problem Trajectory inference from multiple discrete snapshots.
method Multi-Marginal Schrödinger Bridge Matching (MSBM) using iterative Markovian fitting (IMF).
result MSBM effectively captures complex trajectories and respects intermediate distributions.
By monitoring the time evolution of the most liquid Futures contracts traded globally as acquired using the Bloomberg API from 03 January 2000 until 15 December 2014 we were able to forecast the S&P 500 index beating the Buy and Hold trading strategy. Our approach is based on convolution computations of 42 of the most …
Python tool creates machine-learning-ready solar dataset.
problem Creating a usable dataset for space weather forecasting.
method Python tool generates dataset from SoHO and SDO images, applying pre-processing.
result Dataset is machine-learning ready, free of missing data, and temporally synced.
The Financial Crisis of 2008 is a worldwide financial crisis causing a worldwide economic decline that is the most severe since the 1930s. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global financial crisis gave impact on USD 3.4 trillion losses from financial institutions around the world between 2007 and …
The recent financial crisis of 2008 and the 2011 indebtedness of Greece highlight the importance of understanding the structure of the global financial network. In this paper we set out to analyze and characterize this network, as captured by the IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), in two ways. First, t…
We propose a novel multi-layered nonlinear model that is able to capture and predict the housing-demographic dynamics of the real-state market by simulating the transitions of owners among price-based house layers. This model allows us to determine which parameters are most effective to smoothen the severity of a poten…
Proposes a new model to simulate interbank market liquidity risk.
problem Lack of complete interbank network data for systemic liquidity risk analysis.
method Epidemic model using funding liquidity shortage mechanism, enriched with country and bank risk features.
result Model successfully reproduces systemic liquidity risk across different years and countries.
This work studies the statistical performance of Sinkhorn iterations in estimating Schrödinger bridges.
problem Estimating Schrödinger bridges with limited samples.
method Intermediate Sinkhorn iterations applied to the time-dependent drifts of SDEs.
result Established a statistical bound on the squared total variation error of Sinkhorn bridge iterations.
A new index CRIX for cryptocurrencies is proposed to track market changes.
problem Tracking the volatile and frequently changing cryptocurrency market.
method AIC-based method to select index constituents and assign optimal weights to altcoins.
result CRIX index improves tracking performance of cryptocurrency portfolios.
New algorithm for decomposing multidimensional, non-stationary signals.
problem Handling complex, non-stationary signals in multidimensional and multivariate data.
method Multidimensional and Multivariate Fast Iterative Filtering (MdMvFIF) algorithm.
result Extracts Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) from complex signals varying in space and time.