Predict real-time crash risks during hurricane evacuations using connected vehicle data.
problem Mitigate crash risks during hurricane evacuations by predicting high-risk locations.
method Used connected vehicle data to predict crash risks in real-time, considering weather and traffic features.
result Gaussian Process Boosting and Extreme Gradient Boosting models performed best, with recall of 0.91.
Improved neural network predicts tropical storm trajectories and Bayesian intervals.
problem Accurately predicting the trajectories of tropical storms to prevent damage.
method Developed an improved RNN model with dropout to predict Bayesian intervals.
result Neural network dropout values significantly affect prediction accuracy and intervals.
Deep RL model optimizes pedestrian evacuation in multi-exit scenarios.
problem Optimizing pedestrian evacuation in multi-exit indoor environments.
method MultiExit-DRL using Deep Reinforcement Learning with DQN and DNN.
result MultiExit-DRL reduces evacuation frames and optimizes exit utilization.
Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their trajectory paths is critical to reduce economic loss and save human lives. Given th…
FCNv2 robustness tested under noise and random initial conditions.
problem Assessing AI weather forecasting model robustness to input noise.
method Two experiments with varying noise levels and random initial conditions.
result FCNv2 preserves hurricane features under low to moderate noise, but underestimates intensity and persistence.
Bayesian model uses mobile data to assess business resilience after hurricanes.
problem Evaluating economic impact of extreme shocks on businesses.
method Bayesian structural time series model with mobile phone data.
result Estimates business resilience after hurricanes, revealing key characteristics.
Social media plays a major role during and after major natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes, large-scale fires, etc.), as people ``on the ground'' post useful information on what is actually happening. Given the large amounts of posts, a major challenge is identifying the information that is useful and actionable. Emerg…
Standard supervised learning procedures are validated against a test set that is assumed to have come from the same distribution as the training data. However, in many problems, the test data may have come from a different distribution. We consider the case of having many labeled observations from one distribution, $P_…
Graph Attention Networks predict power outage durations from natural disasters.
problem Accurately predicting power outage durations from geospatial and weather data.
method Graph Attention Networks (GAT) for semi-supervised learning.
result GAT model outperforms existing methods by 2% - 15% in accuracy.
Global physical event detection has traditionally relied on dense coverage of physical sensors around the world; while this is an expensive undertaking, there have not been alternatives until recently. The ubiquity of social networks and human sensors in the field provides a tremendous amount of real-time, live data ab…
Transfer learning framework for fragility modeling under domain shift and class imbalance
problem Data gaps in structural fragility modeling
method Transfer learning
result Improves failure detection and predictive stability in low-data regimes
Transforms curves and surfaces for efficient geometric analysis.
problem Efficiently analyzing and comparing curves and surfaces.
method Square root velocity transformation for curves and intrinsic comparison for surfaces.
result Fundamental geometric properties of curves under the transformation.
Proposes ridge regression on Riemannian manifolds for time-series prediction.
problem Time-series prediction on Riemannian manifolds.
method Combines Riemannian least-squares fitting via Bézier curves, empirical covariance on manifolds, and Mahalanobis distance regularization.
result Significant error reduction in synthetic spherical experiments and hurricane forecasting.
This paper describes and evaluates the use of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for path planning in support of smart mobility applications such as indoor and outdoor navigation applications, individualized wayfinding for people with disabilities (e.g., vision impairments, physical disabilities, etc.), path planni…
In this paper we study the shape space of curves with values in a homogeneous space M=G/K, where G is a Lie group and K is a compact Lie subgroup. We generalize the square root velocity framework to obtain a reparametrization invariant metric on the space of curves in M. By identifying curves in M with thei…
We use splines and the Sasaki metric to analyze and compare manifold-valued trajectories.
problem Analyzing and comparing trajectories on Riemannian manifolds.
method Riemannian hierarchical model, Bézier splines, Sasaki metric.
result Spline-based approaches outperform state-of-the-art methods in intensity classification of trajectories.
New method generates geolocated synthetic populations from real data.
problem Generating synthetic populations with explicit geographic coordinates.
method Mapping coordinates into a latent space using Normalizing Flows (NF), then combining with other features in a Variational Autoencoder (VAE).
result NF+VAE architecture outperforms existing methods in generating geolocated synthetic populations.
Proposes a new Hawkes process bandit model for disaster search and rescue.
problem Forecasting and detecting spatio-temporal events with undersampled or biased data.
method Upper confidence bound algorithm using Bayesian spatial Hawkes process estimation.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art spatial MAB algorithms in disaster search and rescue.
Framework improves ML flood mapping generalization.
problem Improving machine learning models' ability to generalize to new conditions.
method Dimensionless, multi-scale features constrained by the Buckingham Π theorem.
result Model outperformed dimensional features, improving AUC in unmapped areas.
New method explains anomalies in multivariate time series data.
problem Understanding and explaining anomalies in multivariate time series data.
method Counterfactual reasoning applied to MDI-detected anomalous intervals.
result Our method accurately identifies and explains anomalies in various extreme events.
Anomaly-aware forecast improves accuracy for extreme events.
problem Challenges in automatically detecting and learning from extreme events and anomalies in large-scale datasets.
method Proposes an anomaly-aware forecast framework that automatically detects and incorporates anomalies using an attention mechanism and dynamic uncertainty optimization.
result Demonstrated superior accuracy and reduced uncertainty on three datasets with different types of anomalies.
Efficiently samples conformal boundaries in high dimensions using flows.
problem Difficulty in interpreting and using prediction sets in high-dimensional or structured output spaces.
method Flow-based approach using differentiable nonconformity scores to induce deterministic flows on the output space.
result Sampling conformal boundaries in arbitrary dimensions becomes computationally efficient and training-free.
Study optimizes climate adaptation strategies for NYC.
problem Catastrophic damages from extreme weather in NYC.
method Real options analysis and extreme value theory.
result Optimal adaptation pathways identified for NYC.
The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current statistical forecasting models have much room for improvement given that the database of…
New method predicts spatial events like hurricanes and earthquakes with uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in natural hazard predictions.
method Representing spatial point clouds as empirical measures, constraining prediction sets to spatial data manifold, using Wasserstein distance.
result Achieves near-nominal coverage and lower energy/manifold distances compared to baselines.
Event detection has long been the domain of physical sensors operating in a static dataset assumption. The prevalence of social media and web access has led to the emergence of social, or human sensors who report on events globally. This warrants development of event detectors that can take advantage of the truly dense…
Paper improves predictive distributions for rare events using a simple framework.
problem Local miscalibration of predictive distributions for rare events.
method Semiparametric diagnostic transport maps to correct tail probabilities.
result Semiparametric maps improve predictions for severe weather hazards.
Learning with rejection (LWR) allows development of machine learning systems with the ability to discard low confidence decisions generated by a prediction model. That is, just like human experts, LWR allows machine models to abstain from generating a prediction when reliability of the prediction is expected to be low.…
Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system. Recent work has shown that fully supervised convolutional neural networks (CNNs…
Modeling complex systems with multi-resolution data and causal dependencies.
problem Accurate prediction of complex systems with varying causal dependencies and multi-resolution data.
method Score-based Variational Graphical Diffusion Model (Temporal-SVGDM) that constructs individual SDEs for each variable at its native resolution and couples them through a causal score mechanism.
result Improved prediction accuracy and causal understanding compared to existing methods, especially in temporal scenarios.
We propose a method for causal inference using satellite image time series, in order to determine the treatment effects of interventions which impact climate change, such as deforestation. Simply put, the aim is to quantify the 'before versus after' effect of climate related human driven interventions, such as urbaniza…
The paper introduces diagnostic transport maps to improve the reliability of rare event predictions.
problem Improper calibration of predictive distributions, especially for rare events.
method Diagnostic transport maps to adjust base model's probabilities for better calibration.
result Diagnostic transport maps improve predictive performance for rare events, including 24-hour rapid intensity change.
Hybrid deep learning model predicts urban floods with high accuracy.
problem Urban flood prediction and situation awareness using channel network sensors data.
method FastGRNN-FCN hybrid deep learning model trained on Harris County, Texas flood data.
result Test accuracy and F-measure reach 97.8% and 0.792, respectively.
It is a challenging and complex task to acquire information from different regions of a disaster-affected area in a timely fashion. The extensive spread and reach of social media and networks allow people to share information in real-time. However, the processing of social media data and gathering of valuable informati…