Conformal Prediction Regions match Imprecise Highest Density Regions under consonance.
problem Matching conformal prediction regions with highest density regions.
method Using consonance and the Imprecise Probability theory of clouds.
result Imprecise Highest Density Regions are equivalent to Conformal Prediction Regions under consonance.
Neural network accuracy improves with denser training samples.
problem Improving neural network accuracy on unseen test samples.
method Bounding empirical training error smoothed across activation regions and using it to discard high-risk test samples.
result Discarding high-risk test samples based on error bounds improves prediction accuracy by up to 20%.
A new method improves quantile regression for high-dimensional data.
problem Handling heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed data in quantile regression.
method Dynamic prototypes-based probability density estimation with conformalized high-density quantile regression.
result Enhanced prediction regions with valid coverage guarantees and scalability to higher dimensions.
A new method for time-series data provides guaranteed coverage and adapts to non-exchangeable data.
problem Guaranteed coverage for time-series data prediction intervals.
method Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR) using quantile random forest.
result SCDR achieves guaranteed asymptotic coverage and outperforms existing methods in simulations.
NQE uses quantile regression for fast SBI with cubic Hermite splines.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference for complex models with limited data.
method Neural Quantile Estimation (NQE) learns quantiles autoregressively and interpolates them using cubic Hermite splines.
result NQE achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark problems.
Conformal Bayes under label shift: post-hoc calibration vs. in-training adaptation
problem Bayesian prediction sets under label shift
method Post-hoc calibration vs. In-training adaptation
result Both strategies achieve valid coverage equally in an unbiased training regime
Manual count of mitotic figures, which is determined in the tumor region with the highest mitotic activity, is a key parameter of most tumor grading schemes. It can be, however, strongly dependent on the area selection due to uneven mitotic figure distribution in the tumor section.We aimed to assess the question, how s…
New methods improve prediction regions for high-dimensional data.
problem Creating effective prediction regions for high-dimensional data.
method CD-split and HPD-split methods that combine split method and data-driven partition.
result CD-split and HPD-split converge to oracle highest predictive density set and satisfy local and asymptotic conditional validity.
Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.
problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.
Climate change impacts and adaptations are the subjects to ongoing issues that attract the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide useful information for energy policymakers and strategists for sustainable devel…
The study proves optimal isoperimetric regions in manifolds with density.
problem Finding optimal regions with minimal boundary area in manifolds with density.
method Proving existence of isoperimetric regions and using subgroup actions.
result Isoperimetric regions in product manifolds are slabs.
New methods for predicting compositional data using conformal prediction.
problem No well-established methods for constructing valid prediction sets in compositional data.
method Investigated three conformal prediction-based approaches for Dirichlet regression models.
result HDR approximation approach is robust in terms of coverage, while grid discretization reduces overcoverage.
A graph clustering method that moves nodes to highest-degree neighbors.
problem Graph clustering for data with Morse regularity.
method Max-degree hill-climbing on graph nodes.
result Asymptotically consistent for random geometric graphs.
Investors target specific regions of payoff distributions for portfolio optimization.
problem Optimizing portfolio performance across different return distribution regions.
method Developed a dynamic portfolio-choice framework targeting downside or upside quantiles.
result Policies focused on downside regions provide stronger left-tail protection and higher Sharpe ratios.
Study shows how near crushing singularities, Kasner-like regions can exist.
problem Understanding spatial volume densities near crushing singularities.
method Relates existence of Kasner-like regions to asymptotics of spatial volume densities under scale-invariant curvature bounds.
result Kasner-like regions can exist near crushing singularities under certain curvature conditions.
Contrast uses normalizing flows to create precise prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs.
problem Generating reliable prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs in supervised and unsupervised learning.
method Contrast uses normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances in latent space, creating sharp prediction regions.
result Contrast maintains guaranteed coverage probability and outperforms existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions.
We completely characterize isoperimetric regions in R^n with density e^h, where h is convex, smooth, and radially symmetric. In particular, balls around the origin constitute isoperimetric regions of any given volume, proving the Log-Convex Density Conjecture due to Kenneth Brakke.
Develops a method for stress testing correlations of financial portfolios.
problem Stress testing correlations in financial asset portfolios.
method Parametric representation of correlations, Bayesian variable selection, joint distribution of stress scenarios.
result Inference of worst-case correlation scenarios using stress tests.
This work introduces a novel nonparametric density index defined on graphs, the Sum-over-Forests (SoF) density index. It is based on a clear and intuitive idea: high-density regions in a graph are characterized by the fact that they contain a large amount of low-cost trees with high outdegrees while low-density regions…
We study the isoperimetric problem for Euclidean space endowed with a continuous density. In dimension one, we characterize isoperimetric regions for a unimodal density. In higher dimensions, we prove existence results and we derive stability conditions, which lead to the conjecture that for a radial log-convex density…
Bayesian model averaging under predictor redundancy
problem Reporting Bayesian model averaging posterior without changing the Bayesian target
method Using hard or soft regions of support space
result Region reports often give shorter and clearer summaries while preserving the main posterior information
Study on bit threads and their locking properties in holographic spacetimes.
problem Understanding the conditions under which regions can be locked in holographic spacetimes.
method Investigation of different density bounds and their implications on the locking of regions.
result Non-crossing regions can be locked under the most stringent bound, but crossing regions cannot.
Develops conformal Bayes for two-sided censored Gaussian regression under label shift.
problem Prediction under label shift with censored responses.
method Combines posterior predictive tilting with weighted conformal calibration.
result Restores marginal coverage with smaller prediction sets.
SDG uses optimal control to improve classifier guidance in low-density regions.
problem Inefficient guidance in low-density regions of posterior distributions.
method Integrates stochastic optimal control with Stein variational inference to compute the steepest descent direction.
result SDG improves guidance in low-density regions, outperforming standard methods.
Art historians and archaeologists have long grappled with the regional classification of ancient Near Eastern ivory carvings. Based on the visual similarity of sculptures, individuals within these fields have proposed object assemblages linked to hypothesized regional production centers. Using quantitative rather than …
Density-based clustering is the task of discovering high-density regions of entities (clusters) that are separated from each other by contiguous regions of low-density. DBSCAN is, arguably, the most popular density-based clustering algorithm. However, its cluster recovery capabilities depend on the combination of the t…
By seeking the narrowest prediction intervals (PIs) that satisfy the specified coverage probability requirements, the recently proposed quality-based PI learning principle can extract high-quality PIs that better summarize the predictive certainty in regression tasks, and has been widely applied to solve many practical…
A new method improves flow matching by dynamically weighting density estimates.
problem High-dimensional integration inefficiency in flow matching.
method Density-weighted Dynamic Stein operators.
result Significant improvement in vector field smoothness and sampling efficiency.
SLS optimizes minimum-volume regions for conditional quantiles, bypassing density estimation.
problem Constructing minimum-volume prediction regions that satisfy conditional coverage.
method Super-level-set regression (SLS) directly optimizes geometric boundaries of conditional level sets.
result SLS optimizes regions directly, capturing complex conditional structures end-to-end.
The two most extended density-based approaches to clustering are surely mixture model clustering and modal clustering. In the mixture model approach, the density is represented as a mixture and clusters are associated to the different mixture components. In modal clustering, clusters are understood as regions of high d…
A new method detects small holes in noisy data.
problem Detecting small holes in high-density regions from noise.
method Robust Density-Aware Distance (RDAD) filtration, incorporating distance-to-measure concept.
result The RDAD filtration prolongs the persistences of small holes, making them distinguishable from noise.
TA-CQR predicts regression intervals with exact coverage, splitting miscoverage between endpoints.
problem Predicting regression intervals with exact coverage under reporting constraints.
method TA-CQR uses tail allocation to parameterize the oracle, estimating the allocation by searching quantile cores and applying nonnegative additive split-conformal calibration.
result TA-CQR achieves exact finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, with theoretical guarantees on calibration and length.
We show that the unique isoperimetric hypersurfaces in Rn with density rp for n≥3 and p>0 are spheres that pass through the origin.
We investigate the forecasting ability of the most commonly used benchmarks in financial economics. We approach the usual caveats of probabilistic forecasts studies -small samples, limited models and non-holistic validations- by performing a comprehensive comparison of 15 predictive schemes during a time period of over…
We leverage recent breakthroughs in neural density estimation to propose a new unsupervised anomaly detection technique (ANODE). By estimating the probability density of the data in a signal region and in sidebands, and interpolating the latter into the signal region, a likelihood ratio of data vs. background can be co…
New method calibrates reference distributions for bounded support.
problem Lack of principled method for bounded-support statistical reference distributions.
method Formulated maximum entropy on projective space of nonnegative measures.
result Prescribed acceptance region uniquely determines deformation parameter.
Machine learning is used to approximate density functionals. For the model problem of the kinetic energy of non-interacting fermions in 1d, mean absolute errors below 1 kcal/mol on test densities similar to the training set are reached with fewer than 100 training densities. A predictor identifies if a test density is …
Objective The electrical characteristics of the EEG signals can be used for seizure detection. Statistical independence between different brain regions is measured by functional brain connectivity (FBC). Specific directional effects can't consider by FBC and thus effective brain connectivity (EBC) is used to measure ca…
Graph convolution networks (GCN) have emerged as the leading method to classify node classes in networks, and have reached the highest accuracy in multiple node classification tasks. In the absence of available tagged samples, active learning methods have been developed to obtain the highest accuracy using the minimal …
Study identifies high-density anomalies in normal data regions.
problem Detecting anomalies in normal data regions.
method Introduces non-parametric algorithmic frameworks for unsupervised detection.
result IPP framework yields the best detection results.
In the knowledge that the ex-post performance of Markowitz efficient portfolios is inferior to that implied ex-ante, we make two contributions to the portfolio selection literature. Firstly, we propose a methodology to identify the region of risk-expected return space where ex-post performance matches ex-ante estimates…
New method improves Gaussian Mixture Model fitting speed.
problem Slow convergence of EM algorithm for complex data.
method Riemannian Newton Trust-Region method for Gaussian Mixture Models.
result Outperforms existing methods in runtime and iterations.
DiffATD efficiently discovers targets in partially observable environments using diffusion dynamics.
problem Efficiently discovering targets in partially observable environments with limited sampling.
method DiffATD uses diffusion dynamics to maintain a belief distribution over unobserved states, balancing exploration and exploitation.
result DiffATD outperforms baselines and supervised methods in diverse domains.
A feature-weighted mean shift algorithm improves clustering in high-dimensional data.
problem Clustering high-dimensional data with traditional mean shift algorithms.
method Feature-weighted mean shift algorithm.
result The algorithm outperforms conventional mean shift and preserves computational simplicity.
The study bounds Hausdorff measure of flat singular points in area-minimizing currents.
problem Bounding Hausdorff measure of flat singular points in area-minimizing currents.
method Proving locally finite (m−2)-dimensional Hausdorff measure and Minkowski content bounds. result The set of flat singular points has locally finite (m−2)-dimensional Hausdorff measure. New method predicts spatial events like hurricanes and earthquakes with uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in natural hazard predictions.
method Representing spatial point clouds as empirical measures, constraining prediction sets to spatial data manifold, using Wasserstein distance.
result Achieves near-nominal coverage and lower energy/manifold distances compared to baselines.
The paper introduces a new method to find meaningful data subsets in multivariate probability density functions.
problem Finding meaningful data subsets in multivariate probability density functions.
method The paper defines an abstract bump construct based on curvature functionals of the probability density and proposes a multivariate implementation of Good and Gaskins' original concave bumps.
result The method provides theoretical results for asymptotic consistency of bump boundaries and confidence regions.
As one type of efficient unsupervised learning methods, clustering algorithms have been widely used in data mining and knowledge discovery with noticeable advantages. However, clustering algorithms based on density peak have limited clustering effect on data with varying density distribution (VDD), equilibrium distribu…