Deep neural networks (DNNs) may outperform human brains in complex tasks, but the lack of transparency in their decision-making processes makes us question whether we could fully trust DNNs with high stakes problems. As DNNs' operations rely on a massive number of both parallel and sequential linear/nonlinear computati…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “High-stakes decision making”
Black box machine learning models are currently being used for high stakes decision-making throughout society, causing problems throughout healthcare, criminal justice, and in other domains. People have hoped that creating methods for explaining these black box models will alleviate some of these problems, but trying t…
Distributive Justice and Fairness Metrics in Automated Decision-making: How Much Overlap Is There?stat.ML
The paper explores fairness metrics in automated decision-making and their limitations.
problem Discrimination in automated resource allocation decisions.
method Analysis of fairness metrics and distributive justice principles.
result Prominent fairness metrics fail to address egalitarian and sufficiency concerns in resource allocation.
Framework for responsible LLM deployment with human involvement and decentralized technologies.
problem Challenges in deploying LLMs for high-stakes decisions, including data security and accountability.
method Interactive human involvement through multiple iterations, decentralized technologies, and automated auditing.
result Enhanced security and accountability in LLM deployment for financial decisions.
Systematic review of conformal inference for treatment effect estimation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in treatment effect estimation.
method Conformal prediction methods for treatment effect estimation.
result Current state-of-the-art conformal prediction methods identified and described.
AI systems are being deployed to support human decision making in high-stakes domains. In many cases, the human and AI form a team, in which the human makes decisions after reviewing the AI's inferences. A successful partnership requires that the human develops insights into the performance of the AI system, including …
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.
Framework enhances AI explainability by aligning with human cognitive models.
problem Lack of explainability in AI models hinders trust and accountability.
method Integrates explainability techniques with Malle's five category model of behavior explanation.
result Demonstrates practical relevance in credit risk assessment and regulatory analysis.
Neural Additive Models combine neural nets with interpretable models for high stakes tasks.
problem Inability to understand how neural networks make decisions.
method Combines neural nets with generalized additive models to create Neural Additive Models (NAMs).
result NAMs are more accurate than intelligible models and as accurate as state-of-the-art generalized additive models.
FIGS improves prediction performance while maintaining interpretability, especially in medical domains.
problem Lack of interpretability in machine learning models, particularly in high-stakes domains like medicine.
method Generalizes CART algorithm to grow multiple trees in summation, combining logical rules with addition.
result FIGS achieves state-of-the-art prediction performance and derives interpretable clinical decision instruments (CDIs).
Conformal prediction helps quantify uncertainty but its use by humans is unclear.
problem Uncertainty quantification in predictions for human decision making.
method Decision theoretic framework for evaluating predictive uncertainty.
result Conformal prediction sets and human decision making goals are in tension.
A new calibration metric bridges testability and actionability.
problem Combining testability and actionable insights for forecast probabilities.
method Cutoff Calibration Error (CCE) that assesses calibration over intervals of forecasted probabilities.
result Cutoff Calibration Error is both testable and actionable.
Study detects and explains positional bias in financial LLMs.
problem Positional bias in financial decision-making using LLMs.
method Unified framework and benchmark for detecting and quantifying bias in Qwen2.5 models.
result Positional bias is pervasive, scale-sensitive, and resurfaces under nuanced prompt designs.
New research shows machine-assisted decisions can still be unfair even when the algorithm is fair.
problem Ensuring fairness in decisions made with machine-assisted human input.
method Formal model and lab experiment to analyze how machine predictions affect human decisions.
result Excluding information about protected groups from machine predictions can increase disparities.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have proven to be successful in many classification tasks, outperforming previous state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy. However, accuracy alone is not enough for high-stakes decision making. Decision makers want to know the likelihood that a specific GNN prediction is correct. For …
PandaAI: A practical agent for neuro-symbolic data analysis and decision-making in finance
problem Sequential decision-making in finance
method Leveraging LLMs for market regime modeling and constrained alpha generation
result PandaAI achieves higher Rank IC and lower maximum drawdown
New framework calibrates decision robustness using inverse conformal risk control.
problem Inadequate robustness levels in decision-making due to ad hoc choices.
method Constructs valid estimators to trace miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier.
result Provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on robustness levels.
RL tackles decision making in unknown environments, focusing on efficiency and efficacy.
problem Efficiency and efficacy in RL algorithms for sample-starved situations.
method Markov Decision Processes, model-based and value-based approaches, policy optimization.
result Enhanced understanding and improvements in sample and computational efficacies of RL algorithms.
This paper introduces collective counterfactual explanations for groups of instances in classification models.
problem Understanding how classification models make decisions for groups of instances.
method Novel Mathematical Optimization models to find collective counterfactual explanations that minimize total perturbation cost.
result Detects critical features for entire dataset classification and handles outliers.
Study proposes a statistical test for Vision Transformer's attention mechanisms.
problem ViT's attention mechanisms may focus on irrelevant regions, leading to unreliable evidence.
method Selective inference framework to quantify statistical significance of attentions as p-values.
result Proposed method enables reliable quantification of false positive detection probability of attentions.
This work advances collaborative decision making by combining human and AI strengths in uncertainty quantification.
problem Current AI lacks robust decision-making capabilities under uncertainty, especially in high-stakes contexts.
method Introduces Human AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantification (HACUQ) framework, formalizing AI-human collaboration and developing calibration algorithms.
result Optimal collaborative prediction sets follow a two-threshold structure, and online adaptation algorithms can adapt to evolving human behavior.
Strategic feature selection in high-stakes domains like healthcare.
problem Strategic manipulation of input features in algorithmic predictors.
method Formal study of strategic classification through feature selection and ridge regularization.
result Excluding individual features based on manipulability is generally suboptimal.
Interactive machine learning improves learning efficiency with user input.
problem Expensive, time-consuming, or risky acquisition of labeled data and decision-making.
method Develops new algorithms for active learning, sequential decision making, and model selection under partial feedback.
result First efficient algorithms achieving exponential label savings and independent of action space size.
Enhances Transformers for better risk assessment in finance.
problem Transformer models lack sensitivity to extreme financial losses.
method Integrates Loss-at-Risk function with Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR).
result Improves risk prediction and management in financial datasets.
Proposes HEX for human-in-the-loop explainability in ML models.
problem Ensuring accountability and reliability in ML models used for high-stakes decisions.
method Human-in-the-loop deep reinforcement learning approach to MLX.
result Synthesizes decision-specific policies from any classification model.
The study reveals decision trees' limitations in fitting data from additive models, proving a generalization lower bound.
problem Understanding the generalization performance of decision trees on additive models.
method Analyzing decision tree algorithms with sparse additive models, proving generalization lower bounds.
result Generalization lower bounds for decision trees on sparse additive models are much worse than minimax rates.
Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform actions, such as medical treatments or release conditions, often with the aim of reduci…
Interpretability of ML models improves healthcare decisions.
problem Ensuring machine learning models are understandable for healthcare users.
method Classifying interpretability into local and global approaches, and model-specific vs. model-agnostic methods.
result Examples of practical interpretability in healthcare, including prediction and treatment optimization.
DP-NCB algorithm ensures privacy and fairness in bandit decisions.
problem Achieving both privacy and fairness in bandit algorithms.
method Differentially Private Nash Confidence Bound (DP-NCB) framework.
result DP-NCB achieves optimal Nash regret while maintaining privacy.
CROQ optimizes LLM decision-making by narrowing down choices and improving accuracy.
problem Uncertainty in LLM outputs poses risks in high-stakes domains.
method Conformal prediction (CP) and optimization (CP-OPT) to minimize prediction set sizes.
result CROQ improves LLM accuracy, especially with CP-OPT.
Develops optimal decision-making framework for uncertain counterfactuals.
problem Ensuring reliability of predictions in high-stakes decisions.
method Policy-Coupled Risk-Averse Conformal Prediction (PC-RACP).
result Optimal prediction sets for counterfactual decisions with valid coverage.
Private RL algorithm with privacy guarantees for personalized medicine decisions.
problem Privacy-preserving reinforcement learning for personalized medicine decisions.
method Developed a private optimism-based RL algorithm using joint differential privacy (JDP).
result Achieved strong PAC and regret bounds with a privacy guarantee.
Much attention has been devoted recently to the development of machine learning algorithms with the goal of improving treatment policies in healthcare. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a sub-field within machine learning that is concerned with learning how to make sequences of decisions so as to optimize long-term effect…
Deep learning is increasingly being used in high-stake decision making applications that affect individual lives. However, deep learning models might exhibit algorithmic discrimination behaviors with respect to protected groups, potentially posing negative impacts on individuals and society. Therefore, fairness in deep…
Towards Scalable Meta-Learning of near-optimal Interpretable Models via Synthetic Model Generationscs.LG
Meta-learning interpretable decision trees with synthetic data.
problem Lack of efficient, scalable methods for generating synthetic data for decision tree meta-learning.
method Synthetic generation of near-optimal decision trees using the MetaTree transformer architecture.
result Meta-learning of decision trees achieves performance comparable to real-world data or optimal decision trees, with significant computational cost reduction.
Conformal Alignment ensures trustworthy outputs from foundation models.
problem Ensuring outputs from foundation models align with human values in high-stakes tasks.
method A framework that trains an alignment predictor using reference data to select trustworthy outputs.
result Conformal Alignment accurately identifies trustworthy outputs via lightweight training over moderate reference data.
As machine learning systems get widely adopted for high-stake decisions, quantifying uncertainty over predictions becomes crucial. While modern neural networks are making remarkable gains in terms of predictive accuracy, characterizing uncertainty over the parameters of these models is challenging because of the high d…
The paper tackles optimal policy learning with asymmetric counterfactual utilities in healthcare decisions.
problem Learning optimal policies from observed data with asymmetric counterfactual utilities.
method The approach involves identifying and minimizing the maximum expected utility loss using statistical decision theory and solving intermediate classification problems.
result One can learn minimax loss decision rules from observed data.
MCD offers a complete model understanding for high-stake decisions.
problem Local model understanding in XAI methods is not sufficient for high-stake decisions.
method MCD extends concept-based methods to ensure global model understanding via multi-dimensional subspaces.
result MCD provides a complete model understanding, ensuring the model reasoning is related to the actual model.
Improves generative models for cost-sensitive decisions.
problem Generative models lack awareness of decision costs.
method Integrates a decision loss into the training objective.
result Improves cost-sensitive forecast accuracy.
Paper formalizes anti-discrimination law in automated systems.
problem Algorithmic discrimination in legal contexts.
method Decision-theoretic framework grounded in UK anti-discrimination law.
result Introduced 'conditional estimation parity' metric for ML fairness.
This paper studies uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting models.
method Analysis of UQ methods from Bayesian and frequentist perspectives, including statistical decision theory.
result Different UQ methods have different strengths and weaknesses, with Bayesian methods being more robust in mean prediction and frequentist methods providing more extensive coverage.
Survey on principles and challenges of interpretable machine learning.
problem Improving machine learning models' interpretability for high-stakes decisions.
method Identification and analysis of 10 technical challenges in interpretable machine learning.
result Identification of 10 technical challenges in interpretable machine learning.
New methods improve off-policy evaluation for survival outcomes with censoring.
problem Systematic underestimation of policy performance due to censoring bias in survival outcomes.
method Proposes IPCW-IPS and IPCW-DR to handle censoring bias in survival outcomes.
result The proposed methods are unbiased and achieve double robustness.
Improves off-policy evaluation with imperfect annotations.
problem Limited dataset coverage for evaluating new policies.
method Doubly robust estimators combining IS and DM, incorporating counterfactual annotations.
result Using annotations within the DM component yields the most desirable theoretical results.
Paper formalizes multi-dimensional FSD using geometric methods.
problem Complex measure theory and calculus barriers to formalization in proof assistants.
method Geometric framework for first-order stochastic dominance in N dimensions.
result Geometric approach bypasses complex integration theory for direct comparison of survival probabilities.
AI agents are being developed to support high stakes decision-making processes from driving cars to prescribing drugs, making it increasingly important for human users to understand their behavior. Policy summarization methods aim to convey strengths and weaknesses of such agents by demonstrating their behavior in a su…
Law explains how deep networks separate data for classification.
problem Black-box nature of deep learning limits architecture design and interpretation.
method Studied how deep neural networks process data in intermediate layers.
result Law of geometric data separation emerges in various architectures and datasets.