A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Hierarchical hidden Markov models predict market trends in financial time series.
A new model separates persistence and transition priors in HDP-HMM.
Develops a more flexible HDP-HMM for temporal data segmentation.
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are undesirable, particul…
Paper presents a novel online HAR method using Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models.
New model improves cancer screening prediction accuracy.
We propose a restricted collapsed draw (RCD) sampler, a general Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler of simultaneous draws from a hierarchical Chinese restaurant process (HCRP) with restriction. Models that require simultaneous draws from a hierarchical Dirichlet process with restriction, such as infinite Hidden markov mod…
Inspired by the hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMM), we present the hierarchical semi-Markov conditional random field (HSCRF), a generalisation of embedded undirectedMarkov chains tomodel complex hierarchical, nestedMarkov processes. It is parameterised in a discriminative framework and has polynomial time algorit…
Study evaluates initialization strategies for infinite hidden Markov models.
The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a generative model that treats sequential data under the assumption that each observation is conditioned on the state of a discrete hidden variable that evolves in time as a Markov chain. In this paper, we derive a novel algorithm to cluster HMMs through their probability distributions.…
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting. Our algorithm is applicable to both finite hidden Markov models and hierarchical D…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a widely-used generative model that copes with sequential data, assuming that each observation is conditioned on the state of a hidden Markov chain. In this paper, we derive a novel algorithm to cluster HMMs based on the hierarchical EM (HEM) algorithm. The proposed algorithm i) cluster…
In this note we provide detailed derivations of two versions of small-variance asymptotics for hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) mixture models and the HDP hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM, a.k.a. the infinite HMM). We include derivations for the probabilities of certain CRP and CRF partitions, which are of more general…
Activity recognition from sensor data deals with various challenges, such as overlapping activities, activity labeling, and activity detection. Although each challenge in the field of recognition has great importance, the most important one refers to online activity recognition. The present study tries to use online hi…
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are undesirable, particularly if we wish to learn or encode non-geometric state durations.…
Aggregates models from different datasets using shared latent structures.
We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a similarity function on the state space and scaling transition probabilities by pai…
In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a semiparametric modeling where the emission distributions are a mixture of parametric distr…
We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we consider single-molecule experiments which indirectly measure the distinct steps in a b…
New model accounts for sequential dependence in LLM reliability.
A-VI can approximate F-VI under certain conditions, improving inference in some models.
Expands Hidden Markov Model to include Markov chain observations.
A scalable Bayesian additive model for stellar flare detection using Gaussian process inference and hidden Markov models.
This paper reviews recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric techniques for constructing and performing inference in infinite hidden Markov models. We focus on variants of Bayesian nonparametric hidden Markov models that enhance a posteriori state-persistence in particular. This paper also introduces a new Bayesian non…
We propose the segmented iHMM (siHMM), a hierarchical infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) that supports a simple, efficient inference scheme. The siHMM is well suited to segmentation problems, where the goal is to identify points at which a time series transitions from one relatively stable regime to a new regime. Conv…
New method reduces state redundancy in HSMM for driving patterns.
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g. user behavior traces). We simplify the idea of capturing these patterns by hierarc…
In this paper, computer-based techniques for stylistic analysis of paintings are applied to the five panels of the 14th century Peruzzi Altarpiece by Giotto di Bondone. Features are extracted by combining a dual-tree complex wavelet transform with a hidden Markov tree (HMT) model. Hierarchical clustering is used to ide…
Novel online algorithm for hierarchical imitation learning.
A deep Neyman-Scott process uses Poisson processes for efficient inference in complex point processes.
The paper estimates key metrics for linear models with Markov or hidden Markov sources.
Hidden Markov Neural Networks balance adaptation and forgetting in time-series data.
Interfacing a kinetic action of a person to an action of a machine system is an important research topic in many application areas. One of the key factors for intimate human-machine interaction is the ability of the control algorithm to detect and classify different user commands with shortest possible latency, thus ma…
This paper compares HMM and LSTM for time series forecasting.
Modified asymmetric hidden Markov models for time series with autoregressive components.
NoMoPy models noise as HMM/FHMM in Python.
This work speeds up fHMM analysis by tensor algebra.
Investor selects portfolios based on news attention in a hidden Markov model.
The paper introduces FMCI and hybrid decoding for hidden Markov models.
A new HMM model captures kernel dependencies using context-specific Bayesian networks.
Paper proposes a new HMM approach for better action recognition.
Develops a method for learning proposals in nested importance samplers.
Hidden Markov Model predicts student performance in educational games.
New algorithm for collective Gaussian hidden Markov models inference.
Hidden tree Markov models allow learning distributions for tree structured data while being interpretable as nondeterministic automata. We provide a concise summary of the main approaches in literature, focusing in particular on the causality assumptions introduced by the choice of a specific tree visit direction. We w…
The study uses Bayesian Hidden Markov Models to predict cryptocurrency returns.
This paper proposes a hierarchical feature extractor for non-stationary streaming time series based on the concept of switching observable Markov chain models. The slow time-scale non-stationary behaviors are considered to be a mixture of quasi-stationary fast time-scale segments that are exhibited by complex dynamical…
New clustering method recovers hidden tree structure from data.