A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Improved HGF networks avoid negative precision errors in volatility updates.
Filter banks are a popular tool for the analysis of piecewise smooth signals such as natural images. Motivated by the empirically observed properties of scale and detail coefficients of images in the wavelet domain, we propose a hierarchical deep generative model of piecewise smooth signals that is a recursion across s…
Develops state-space deep Gaussian processes for irregular signals.
We propose a new heavy-tailed distribution --- Gaussian-Chain (GC) distribution, which is inspirited by the hierarchical structures prevailing in social organizations. We determine the mean, variance and kurtosis of the Gaussian-Chain distribution to show its heavy-tailed property, and compute the tail distribution tab…
We learn hierarchical slate representations for collaborative filtering.
We show that the Kullback-Leibler distance is a good measure of the statistical uncertainty of correlation matrices estimated by using a finite set of data. For correlation matrices of multivariate Gaussian variables we analytically determine the expected values of the Kullback-Leibler distance of a sample correlation …
The paper develops a state-space approach to deep Gaussian processes for efficient state estimation.
We revisit the Bayesian online inference problems for the linear dynamic systems (LDS) under non- Gaussian environment. The noises can naturally be non-Gaussian (skewed and/or heavy tailed) or to accommodate spurious observations, noises can be modeled as heavy tailed. However, at the cost of such noise robustness, the…
GEnBP combines EnKF and GaBP for efficient high-dimensional inference.
The Kalman filter is extensively used for state estimation for linear systems under Gaussian noise. When non-Gaussian Lévy noise is present, the conventional Kalman filter may fail to be effective due to the fact that the non-Gaussian Lévy noise may have infinite variance. A modified Kalman filter for linear systems wi…
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
Improved Kalman filtering with hierarchical variational approach.
We discuss some methods to quantitatively investigate the properties of correlation matrices. Correlation matrices play an important role in portfolio optimization and in several other quantitative descriptions of asset price dynamics in financial markets. Specifically, we discuss how to define and obtain hierarchical …
Deep learning explained through spectral filtering of hierarchical features.
New sampling-based approach for filtering problems using multiplicative Gaussian functions.
Improved Kalman filter for non-linear, non-Gaussian data.
This work preserves linear invariants in ensemble filters for non-Gaussian data assimilation.
We present a general probabilistic perspective on Gaussian filtering and smoothing. This allows us to show that common approaches to Gaussian filtering/smoothing can be distinguished solely by their methods of computing/approximating the means and covariances of joint probabilities. This implies that novel filters and …
A new method for Gaussian filtering using gradient flows and Wasserstein metrics.
In this manuscript we introduce numerical Gaussian process Kalman filtering (GPKF). Numerical Gaussian processes have recently been developed to simulate spatiotemporal models. The contribution of this paper is to embed numerical Gaussian processes into the recursive Kalman filter equations. This embedding enables us t…
Recursive KalmanNet combines neural networks with Kalman filters for precise state estimation.
Method cleans covariance matrices for better statistical inference.
Filtering is a general name for inferring the states of a dynamical system given observations. The most common filtering approach is Gaussian Filtering (GF) where the distribution of the inferred states is a Gaussian whose mean is an affine function of the observations. There are two restrictions in this model: Gaussia…
Filtered conformal ellipsoids for graph-native time series
In this paper, we tackle the question of discovering an effective set of spatial filters to solve hyperspectral classification problems. Instead of fixing a priori the filters and their parameters using expert knowledge, we let the model find them within random draws in the (possibly infinite) space of possible filters…
This work studies the problem of stochastic dynamic filtering and state propagation with complex beliefs. The main contribution is GP-SUM, a filtering algorithm tailored to dynamic systems and observation models expressed as Gaussian Processes (GP), and to states represented as a weighted sum of Gaussians. The key attr…
A new flow-based Bayesian filter tackles high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems.
Ens-CGP synthesizes ensemble-based inference with Gaussian processes.
Transformers can solve complex filtering problems for non-Gaussian signals.
Enhances topic models to better handle polysemous words.
New filters for non-linear systems achieve closed-form solutions.
The paper is concerned with non-linear Gaussian filtering and smoothing in continuous-discrete state-space models, where the dynamic model is formulated as an Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE), and the measurements are obtained at discrete time instants. We propose novel Taylor moment expansion (TME) Gaussian …
Many sensors, such as range, sonar, radar, GPS and visual devices, produce measurements which are contaminated by outliers. This problem can be addressed by using fat-tailed sensor models, which account for the possibility of outliers. Unfortunately, all estimation algorithms belonging to the family of Gaussian filters…
EnEMF uses Epanechnikov kernel for high-dimensional filtering, improving accuracy and robustness.
Posterior regularization enhances Bayesian hierarchical mixture clustering by improving node separation.
Many nonlinear extensions of the Kalman filter, e.g., the extended and the unscented Kalman filter, reduce the state densities to Gaussian densities. This approximation gives sufficient results in many cases. However, this filters only estimate states that are correlated with the observation. Therefore, sequential esti…
An incremental/online state dynamic learning method is proposed for identification of the nonlinear Gaussian state space models. The method embeds the stochastic variational sparse Gaussian process as the probabilistic state dynamic model inside a particle filter framework. Model updating is done at measurement sample …
A new method improves Bayesian filtering in nonlinear systems.
Proposes GPHMEs using Gaussian processes for hierarchical expert models.
Study on cryptocurrency market correlations at various time scales.
ATPF combines PF and EnKF for better inference in complex systems.
The problem of low rank matrix completion is considered in this paper. To exploit the underlying low-rank structure of the data matrix, we propose a hierarchical Gaussian prior model, where columns of the low-rank matrix are assumed to follow a Gaussian distribution with zero mean and a common precision matrix, and a W…
Constrained adaptive filtering algorithms inculding constrained least mean square (CLMS), constrained affine projection (CAP) and constrained recursive least squares (CRLS) have been extensively studied in many applications. Most existing constrained adaptive filtering algorithms are developed under mean square error (…
A novel extrapolation method is proposed for longitudinal forecasting. A hierarchical Gaussian process model is used to combine nonlinear population change and individual memory of the past to make prediction. The prediction error is minimized through the hierarchical design. The method is further extended to joint mod…
A new model combines Gaussian processes with collaborative filtering for uncertainty-aware recommendations.
Improved outlier detection in hierarchical Gaussian Processes using Wasserstein-2 kernels.
The present paper proposes generalized Gaussian kernel adaptive filtering, where the kernel parameters are adaptive and data-driven. The Gaussian kernel is parametrized by a center vector and a symmetric positive definite (SPD) precision matrix, which is regarded as a generalization of the scalar width parameter. These…
A Bayesian filtering algorithm is developed for a class of state-space systems that can be modelled via Gaussian mixtures. In general, the exact solution to this filtering problem involves an exponential growth in the number of mixture terms and this is handled here by utilising a Gaussian mixture reduction step after …