We present a non-parametric Bayesian approach to structure learning with hidden causes. Previous Bayesian treatments of this problem define a prior over the number of hidden causes and use algorithms such as reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to move between solutions. In contrast, we assume that the number of hi…
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48 results for “Hidden causes”
New method learns graph structure with hidden causes from observational data.
problem Learning the structure of linear non-Gaussian models with hidden causes.
method Augments hidden variable structure by learning multidirected edges and uses higher order cumulants.
result Correct structure recovery for bow-free acyclic mixed graphs with multi-directed edges.
We consider linear models where potential causes are correlated with one target quantity and propose a method to infer whether the association is causal or whether it is an artifact caused by overfitting or hidden common causes. We employ the idea that in the former case the vector of regression c…
New term ADS describes how machine learning can change user behavior.
problem Machine learning systems can unintentionally change user behavior, affecting performance.
method Introduced `unit tests` and mitigation strategy for hidden incentives in auto-induced distributional shift.
result Meta-learning and Q-learning sometimes fail unit tests but pass with mitigation strategy.
The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders, an assumption that is not testable in practice and, if it does not hold, leads to biased estimates. In this paper, w…
This work restricts hidden cardinality in causal models to infer causal relations.
problem Causal relations between variables with a common unobserved cause cannot be directly inferred.
method Derive inequality constraints from d-separation in causal models with known cardinalities of unobserved variables.
result Inference of causal relations is possible with additional assumptions about cardinalities.
Identifying causal direction in location-scale noise models with hidden variables
problem Causal discovery in location-scale noise models with hidden variables
method ADMGs satisfying a bow-free condition
result First identifiability result for causally insufficient models beyond noise additivity
The most likely common causephysics.data-an
New method identifies common cause in causal insufficiency, revealing complex phase transitions.
problem Identifying common cause in causal insufficiency with observed joint probability.
method Generalized maximum likelihood method, closely related to maximum entropy principle.
result Identifies consistent common cause that aligns with the common cause principle.
The recent increase in the scale and complexity of software systems has introduced new challenges to the time series monitoring and anomaly detection process. A major drawback of existing anomaly detection methods is that they lack contextual information to help stakeholders identify the cause of anomalies. This proble…
Financial markets are not random, but hard to predict due to hidden causes and strategic use.
problem Hard to predict financial markets
method Disciplined thesis on the distinction between no-arbitrage, informational efficiency, and net exploitability
result Discovers that markets are hard to predict due to hidden causes and strategic use
Cubic spline smoothing improves interpolation between irregularly sampled data.
problem Interpolation discontinuity in recurrent neural networks for irregularly sampled sequences.
method Cubic spline smoothing compensation module trained end-to-end with ODE-RNN.
result Improves interpolation between irregularly sampled data points.
Hidden Stratification Causes Clinically Meaningful Failures in Machine Learning for Medical Imagingcs.LG
Machine learning models for medical image analysis often suffer from poor performance on important subsets of a population that are not identified during training or testing. For example, overall performance of a cancer detection model may be high, but the model still consistently misses a rare but aggressive cancer su…
We propose a method to classify the causal relationship between two discrete variables given only the joint distribution of the variables, acknowledging that the method is subject to an inherent baseline error. We assume that the causal system is acyclicity, but we do allow for hidden common causes. Our algorithm presu…
DISTANA improves weather prediction by inferring hidden factors from temperature data.
problem Inferring hidden factors in spatiotemporal processes without supervision.
method Enhanced DISTANA architecture for spatiotemporal data, active tuning for latent state inference.
result DISTANA achieves more accurate predictions than other methods, inferring hidden factors from temperature data.
As a new neural machine translation approach, Non-Autoregressive machine Translation (NAT) has attracted attention recently due to its high efficiency in inference. However, the high efficiency has come at the cost of not capturing the sequential dependency on the target side of translation, which causes NAT to suffer …
Proposes new method to handle hidden confounders in causal mediation analysis.
problem Break down total effect of treatment on outcome through different causal pathways.
method Combines proxy strategies and deep learning to uncover latent variables and estimate causal effects.
result Validated effectiveness of the proposed method for causal fairness analysis.
We use the score function for causal discovery, tackling challenges with hidden variables.
problem Causal discovery from observational data with hidden variables.
method Fine-tuning identifiability results, establishing conditions for inferring causal relations from the score, proposing a flexible algorithm.
result Empirical validation of the proposed algorithm for causal discovery on linear, nonlinear, and latent variable models.
As deep neural networks continue to revolutionize various application domains, there is increasing interest in making these powerful models more understandable and interpretable, and narrowing down the causes of good and bad predictions. We focus on recurrent neural networks (RNNs), state of the art models in speech re…
Environment Reconstruction with Hidden Confounders for Reinforcement Learning based Recommendationcs.LG
Reinforcement learning aims at searching the best policy model for decision making, and has been shown powerful for sequential recommendations. The training of the policy by reinforcement learning, however, is placed in an environment. In many real-world applications, however, the policy training in the real environmen…
We study a model where one target variable Y is correlated with a vector X:=(X_1,...,X_d) of predictor variables being potential causes of Y. We describe a method that infers to what extent the statistical dependences between X and Y are due to the influence of X on Y and to what extent due to a hidden common cause (co…
Regime-Dependent Predictive Structure Between Equity Factors: Evidence from Granger Causalityq-fin.RM
Study finds Value Granger-causes Size during crisis regimes but not during normal times.
problem Understanding regime-dependent predictive relationships between equity factors.
method Used 35 years of Fama-French data and a Student-t Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to identify crisis regimes.
result Value Granger-causes Size during crisis regimes but not during normal times, validating across multiple historical events.
In recent years, memory-augmented neural networks(MANNs) have shown promising power to enhance the memory ability of neural networks for sequential processing tasks. However, previous MANNs suffer from complex memory addressing mechanism, making them relatively hard to train and causing computational overheads. Moreove…
Multiple cause-of-death data provides a valuable source of information that can be used to enhance health standards by predicting health related trajectories in societies with large populations. These data are often available in large quantities across U.S. states and require Big Data techniques to uncover complex hidd…
A HMM for intraday momentum trading reduces lagging and incorporates side information.
problem Time-lagging in existing momentum trading models leads to incorrect momentum signals.
method State space formulation with latent momentum states, cross-validation for state estimation, and Bayesian inference for prediction.
result The model reduces lagging and accurately predicts market changes.
Study compares causal discovery methods for cyclic models with hidden confounders.
problem Detect causal directions in cyclic systems with hidden confounders.
method Comprehensive comparison of four causal discovery techniques.
result Performance varies across different experimental setups and dataset sizes.
Analyzing available FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years, we observe an increase of complexity in the international trade of maize, rice, soy, and wheat. A larger number of countries play a role as producers or intermediaries, either for trade or food processing. In consequence, we find that the trade networks bec…
During the fabrication of casting parts sensor data is typically automatically recorded and accumulated for process monitoring and defect diagnosis. As casting is a thermal process with many interacting process parameters, root cause analysis tends to be tedious and ineffective. We show how a decomposition based on non…
As deep neural networks continue to revolutionize various application domains, there is increasing interest in making these powerful models more understandable and interpretable, and narrowing down the causes of good and bad predictions. We focus on recurrent neural networks, state of the art models in speech recogniti…
Predicts stock volatility using Twitter data and random forests.
problem Predicting stock implied volatility using Twitter data.
method Random forests with ablation study on different predictors, including Twitter attention and sentiment features.
result Certain sectors like Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Real Estate, and Utilities are easier to predict.
In human cognition, the expansion of perceived between-category distances and compression of within-category distances is known as categorical perception (CP). There are several hypotheses about the causes of CP (e.g., language, learning, evolution) but no functional model. Whether CP is essential to categorisation or …
CAnDOIT discovers causal relationships using both observational and interventional time-series data.
problem Identifying causal relationships in the presence of hidden factors.
method CAnDOIT combines observational and interventional time-series data to reconstruct causal models.
result CAnDOIT effectively handles interventional data and enhances the accuracy of causal analysis.
Cosine similarity can force points to grow in magnitude, causing convergence issues.
problem Cosine similarity loss can lead to convergence issues in deep learning.
method Analyzing under-explored settings and proposing cut-initialization.
result Cosine similarity optimization forces points to grow in magnitude, leading to convergence issues.
Individual risk models need to capture possible correlations as failing to do so typically results in an underestimation of extreme quantiles of the aggregate loss. Such dependence modelling is particularly important for managing credit risk, for instance, where joint defaults are a major cause of concern. Often, the d…
Many real-valued stochastic time-series are locally linear (Gassian), but globally non-linear. For example, the trajectory of a human hand gesture can be viewed as a linear dynamic system driven by a nonlinear dynamic system that represents muscle actions. We present a mixed-state dynamic graphical model in which a hid…
Adversarial training purifies hidden weights to remove small perturbations.
problem Understanding and removing adversarial perturbations in deep learning models.
method Introducing Feature Purification, a principle that adversarial training aims to remove small dense mixtures in hidden weights.
result Adversarial training can make neural networks robust against small perturbations, even with simple algorithms.
New method improves neural network interpretability against adversarial attacks.
problem Adversarial attacks can hide from neural network interpretability methods.
method Develops an interpretability-aware defensive scheme promoting robust interpretation.
result Achieves both robust classification and robust interpretation.
A new method identifies causal direction using dense functional classes.
problem Determining causal direction between two univariate, continuous-valued variables.
method Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle applied to cubic regression splines.
result LCUBE method achieves superior precision in identifying causal direction.
Body movement to sound interface with vector autoregressive hierarchical hidden Markov modelsstat.AP
Interfacing a kinetic action of a person to an action of a machine system is an important research topic in many application areas. One of the key factors for intimate human-machine interaction is the ability of the control algorithm to detect and classify different user commands with shortest possible latency, thus ma…
We consider predicting the user's head motion in 360-degree videos, with 2 modalities only: the past user's positions and the video content (not knowing other users' traces). We make two main contributions. First, we re-examine existing deep-learning approaches for this problem and identify hidden flaws from a thorough…
This work proves the asymptotic freeness of layerwise Jacobians in MLPs with Haar orthogonal matrices.
problem Proving the asymptotic freeness of layerwise Jacobians in multilayer perceptrons (MLPs).
method Replacing each layer's parameter matrix with itself multiplied by a Haar orthogonal matrix, and using the invariance of the MLP.
result Proves the asymptotic freeness of layerwise Jacobians in MLPs with Haar orthogonal matrices.
This paper introduces a new approach to finding knots and links with hidden symmetries using "hidden extensions", a class of hidden symmetries defined here. We exhibit a family of tangle complements in the ball whose boundaries have symmetries with hidden extensions, then we further extend these to hidden symmetries of…
DML-IV improves IV regression for learning decision policies by reducing bias.
problem Spurious correlations in offline datasets caused by hidden confounders.
method Double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework to reduce bias in two-stage IV regression.
result DML-IV outperforms state-of-the-art methods and learns high-performing policies.
New optimization methods improve Cox Proportional Hazards model training for high-dimensional data.
problem Vanishing second order derivatives in Newton method prevent convergence for high-dimensional CPH model training.
method Construct and minimize surrogate functions exploiting hidden mathematical structures of CPH model.
result Global convergence and monotonic loss decrease, leading to sparse and high-quality models.
Bayesian inference for biochemical reaction networks using jump-diffusion approximations.
problem Estimating hidden quantities in poorly characterized biochemical processes.
method Developed a Bayesian inference algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods.
result Numerical evaluation of the algorithm for a partially observed multi-scale birth-death process.
dtSNE preserves local densities in low-dimensional embeddings.
problem Local density differences are not accurately preserved in tSNE and UMAP.
method dtSNE, which approximately conserves local densities.
result dtSNE provides more accurate local density depictions.
Learning a causal effect from observational data is not straightforward, as this is not possible without further assumptions. If hidden common causes between treatment and outcome cannot be blocked by other measurements, one possibility is to use an instrumental variable. In principle, it is possible under some…
Tornadoes are the most violent of all atmospheric storms. In a typical year, the United States experiences hundreds of tornadoes with associated damages on the order of one billion dollars. Community preparation and resilience would benefit from accurate predictions of these economic losses, particularly as populations…
In this paper, we focus on online representation learning in non-stationary environments which may require continuous adaptation of model architecture. We propose a novel online dictionary-learning (sparse-coding) framework which incorporates the addition and deletion of hidden units (dictionary elements), and is inspi…