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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,341 papers · 148 categories

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4283125166 · Jun 202019922001200920182026
48 results for Health uncertainty

New framework optimizes time use considering health uncertainty.

problem Uncertainty in data-driven time-use predictions leads to unreliable recommendations.
method Quality Diversity (QD) framework incorporating predictive uncertainty.
result More reliable time-use recommendations balancing expected benefits and model confidence.

Bayesian deep learning predicts uncertainty in EHRs for better healthcare decisions.

problem Lack of interpretability and trustworthiness in deep learning models for EHRs.
method Proposes a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) model to predict uncertainty in EHRs.
result High uncertainty instances harm model performance; distributions reveal patients for timely intervention.

New research finds uncertainty estimation techniques fail to reliably detect abnormal medical cases.

problem Uncertainty estimation does not reliably detect out-of-distribution patients in medical tabular data.
method A series of tests on various uncertainty estimation techniques on real-world medical data.
result Almost all techniques fail to identify out-of-distribution patients, contradicting earlier findings.

This research develops efficient surrogate models for predicting crack growth in metal structures.

problem Accurately predicting crack growth in metal structures under uncertainty.
method Employing Gaussian Process (GP) regression models for latent variable modeling to create probabilistic surrogate models.
result Surrogate models successfully encode material and load-related uncertainties in stochastic crack growth processes.

Proposes a new model for time-to-event prediction with uncertainty quantification.

problem Lack of uncertainty in time-to-event predictions using recurrent neural networks.
method Deep Kernel Accelerated Failure Time models combining RNN and sparse Gaussian Process.
result Model delivers better uncertainty estimates compared to related methods.

Bayesian approach predicts battery health under varied conditions.

problem Accurately predicting battery health for reliable operation and investment valuation.
method Gaussian process regression with Bayesian non-parametric feature selection.
result Method accurately predicts battery capacity fade with low error.

The paper derives uncertainty quantification for ML models used in metrology.

problem Uncertainty quantification for ML models in metrology applications.
method Analytical expressions for mean and variance of model output are derived for various ML models.
result The derived expressions cover multiple ML models and are validated against Monte Carlo methods.

Introduces UA attention to improve reliability of attention mechanisms in predictions.

problem Reliability of attention mechanisms in weakly-supervised learning.
method Introduces input-dependent uncertainty to attention mechanism and learns it using variational inference.
result Significantly outperforms existing attention models on risk prediction tasks.

Develops a two-stage conformal prediction method for Parkinson's disease medication needs.

problem Heterogeneous disease progression and treatment response in Parkinson's Disease.
method Two-stage conformal prediction framework with statistical guarantees.
result Quantifies uncertainty in medication needs predictions, improving clinical trust and quality of life.

Paper proposes a new method for uncertainty estimation in medical data.

problem Difficulty in assigning confidence to deep learning model predictions in healthcare.
method Combines deep Bayesian learning with deep kernel learning for uncertainty estimation.
result Demonstrates improved uncertainty estimation compared to Gaussian processes and deep Bayesian neural networks.

FUALA improves Federated Learning for EHR data, enhancing model uncertainty.

problem Applying ML to EHR data while maintaining privacy and accuracy.
method FUALA embeds uncertainty in federated learning, using ensembling and averaging.
result FUALA outperforms FedAvg on out-of-distribution data in EHR model predictions.

Bayesian ATM improves stability and efficiency in mobile health interventions.

problem Balancing intervention efficacy with user burden in mobile health interventions.
method Bayesian extension to ATM using Kalman filter-style updates.
result Bayesian ATM achieves comparable or improved scalarized returns with lower variance and more stable policy behavior.

Model predicts default risk based on company's financial forecasts and credit conditions.

problem Estimating the risk of a company defaulting on its financial obligations.
method Developed an equilibrium model linking interest rates to corporate performance and credit supply.
result Estimates idiosyncratic default risk and provides forward-looking probability of default (PD).

Deep models forecast epidemics with uncertainty quantification.

problem Accurate probabilistic forecasting of epidemics is challenging due to nonlinear temporal dependencies and spatial interactions.
method Deep spatiotemporal engression methods with geometric ergodicity and asymptotic stationarity.
result Proposed methods outperform benchmarks in point and probabilistic forecasting.

D2D converts CLDs into SDMs to explore leverage points under uncertainty.

problem Limited dynamic analysis of CLDs for intervention strategies.
method Minimal user input protocol to convert CLDs into SDMs, simulating interventions.
result D2D helps distinguish leverage points and provides uncertainty estimates.

Deep learning models predict postoperative complications more accurately than random forests.

problem Predicting postoperative complications to inform patient care decisions.
method Multi-task deep neural networks integrating intraoperative physiological data.
result Deep learning models improved prediction accuracy and provided interpretable risk factors.

New models automate support group formation in online health communities.

problem Challenges in traditional support group formation methods for scalability, static categorization, and insufficient personalization.
method Two novel machine learning models: gDMR and gSTM, integrating user content, demographics, and network data.
result Models outperform baselines in predictive accuracy, semantic coherence, and internal group consistency.

Bayesian methods detect and forecast inclinometer anomalies in UK rail data.

problem Detecting and predicting dangerous movements in earthwork slopes.
method Bayesian UQ techniques applied to latent Markov process and non-linear Bayesian filter.
result Anomaly detection and forecasting demonstrated on large real-world data.

BFTS uses Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for improved personalized mobile health interventions.

problem Adapting to complex, non-linear user behaviors in personalized mobile health interventions.
method Bayesian Forest Thompson Sampling (BFTS) integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into the exploration loop of contextual bandits.
result BFTS achieves state-of-the-art regret on tabular benchmarks and improves engagement rates by over 30% in a behavioral intervention study.

Study shows model uncertainty is crucial for medical predictions, especially for individual patients.

problem Uncertainty in medical predictions, especially for individual patients.
method Used RNN ensembles and various Bayesian RNNs to analyze model uncertainty.
result RNNs with only Bayesian embeddings are more efficient for capturing model uncertainty.

Generative model predicts remaining life of damaged structures.

problem Prognosis of damage and remaining useful life of structures.
method Generative adversarial networks (GANs) in a population-based SHM framework.
result Algorithm provides confident predictions about structures' remaining useful life.

A new method for estimating uncertainty intervals in regression.

problem Lack of effective methods to estimate uncertainty intervals in regression.
method Collaborating Networks (CN) approach using two neural networks with distinct loss functions.
result CN method improves performance on various real-world datasets, including forecasting A1c values in diabetic patients.

This study examines how economic policy uncertainty impacts commodity prices across different crises.

problem Impact of economic policy uncertainty on commodity prices during various crises.
method Wavelet coherence analysis of time series data.
result Commodity prices are more correlated during global financial and Covid-19 crises.

New method provides valid confidence intervals for spatial associations.

problem Limited insight into covariate-response relationships in spatial settings.
method Lipschitz-driven uncertainty quantification for spatial association.
result Valid frequentist confidence intervals for associations in spatial settings.

Researchers developed a generic model to account for structural variability in SHM.

problem Variability in natural frequency due to operational and environmental conditions limits SHM technologies.
method An overlapping mixture of Gaussian processes (OMGP) was used to generate a generic representation of normal condition.
result The OMGP model provided a generic representation (form) to characterise the normal condition of structures.

Proposes a novel imputation network for clinical time series data.

problem Missing value imputation in clinical time series data with sparsity, irregularity, and high-dimensionality.
method Variational-recurrent imputation network that considers correlated features, temporal dynamics, and uncertainty.
result The proposed method outperformed state-of-the-art methods on real-world EHR datasets.

Optimal learning method for personalized treatment regimes.

problem Finding the best treatments for individual patients to maximize patient responses.
method Bayesian approach with contextual bandits and knowledge gradient policy.
result Significant improvement in treatment success rates through careful physician selection.

Method constructs prediction intervals for time-varying individual treatment effects.

problem Accurately quantify uncertainty of individual treatment effects across multiple decision points.
method Conformal inference techniques for time-varying ITEs with weaker assumptions.
result Guaranteed lower bound for coverage dependent on data non-exchangeability.

Integrates neural encoders into GLMMs for multimodal data analysis.

problem Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs assumes low-dimensional tabular predictors and does not handle high-dimensional modalities.
method Jointly learns modality-specific neural encoders with GLMM objective, performs variance-corrected stochastic-gradient MCMC.
result Preserves interpretable fixed and random effects while scaling to large longitudinal datasets.

Study finds macroeconomic indicators predict health workforce and infrastructure measures.

problem Evaluating the predictive value of macroeconomic indicators for public health targets.
method Examined multiple forecasting approaches including neural networks, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous indicators.
result Macroeconomic indicators provide consistent and reproducible predictive signals for health workforce and infrastructure measures, but less so for other targets.