arXiv research

Adversarial online nonparametric regression achieves optimal rates with locally adaptive learning.

Study approximates unknown function levels with queries.

The purpose of these notes is to explain parts of Gromov's survey of Carnot-Carathedory spaces, in the light of subsequent results of M. Rumin. Among the rich material provided by Gromov, most of which pertains to analysis on metric spaces, we choose to concentrate on the H{ö}lder equivalence problem for Carnot manifol…

A variant of Gromov's H{ö}lder-equivalence problem, motivated by a pinching problem in Riemannian geometry, is discussed. A partial result is given. The main tool is a general coarea inequality satisfied by packing energies of maps.

General equilibrium equations in economics play the same role with many-body Newtonian equations in physics. Accordingly, each solution of the general equilibrium equations can be regarded as a possible microstate of the economic system. Since Arrow's Impossibility Theorem and Rawls' principle of social fairness will p…

Investigates portfolio selection for rank-dependent utilities in incomplete markets.

The study explores geodesics and KL-divergence on Hölder equilibrium probabilities.

This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium model where agents exhibit a strong form of belief heterogeneity: they disagree about zero probability events. It is shown that, somewhat surprisingly, equilibrium exists in this setting, and that the disagreement about nullsets naturally leads to equilibrium asset pricing bubb…

Discovery of atomistic systems with desirable properties is a major challenge in chemistry and material science. Here we introduce a novel, autoregressive, convolutional deep neural network architecture that generates molecular equilibrium structures by sequentially placing atoms in three-dimensional space. The model e…

Study on stock price formation on trees with multi-population and non-rational agents.

General lower bounds on neural network approximation in L^p norm.

Model predicts default risk based on company's financial forecasts and credit conditions.

PAPAL algorithm finds mixed Nash equilibria in continuous games.

We argue that the existing regret matchings for Nash equilibrium approximation conduct "jumpy" strategy updating when the probabilities of future plays are set to be proportional to positive regret measures. We propose a geometrical regret matching which features "smooth" strategy updating. Our approach is simple, intu…

Improved sampling for gauge theory with SNFs.

This paper studies two important signal processing aspects of equilibrium behavior in non-cooperative games arising in social networks, namely, reinforcement learning and detection of equilibrium play. The first part of the paper presents a reinforcement learning (adaptive filtering) algorithm that facilitates learning…

Study on convergence of Langevin dynamics for zero-sum games in probability distributions.

Paper proves convergence of Gini index to equilibrium in Wasserstein distance.

In the context of stochastic continuum-armed bandits, we present an algorithm that adapts to the unknown smoothness of the objective function. We exhibit and compute a polynomial cost of adaptation to the H{ö}lder regularity for regret minimization. To do this, we first reconsider the recent lower bound of Locatelli an…

Study of random sections on complex spaces converging to equilibrium metrics.

Study of $2 imes 2$ zero-sum games with noisy observations and commitments.

The large majority of risk-sharing transactions involve few agents, each of whom can heavily influence the structure and the prices of securities. This paper proposes a game where agents' strategic sets consist of all possible sharing securities and pricing kernels that are consistent with Arrow-Debreu sharing rules. F…

This work presents a methodology for forward electricity contract price projection based on market equilibrium and social welfare optimization. In the methodology supply and demand for forward contracts are produced in such a way that each agent (generator/load/trader) optimizes a risk adjusted expected value of its re…

A step by step procedure to derive analytically the exact dynamical evolution equations of the probability density functions (PDF) of well known kinetic wealth exchange economic models is shown. This technique gives a dynamical insight into the evolution of the PDF, e.g., allowing the calculation of its relaxation time…

Proves minimax sample complexity for turn-based stochastic games.

We study finite energy classes of quasiplurisubharmonic (qpsh) functions in the setting of toric compact K{ä}hler manifolds. We characterize toric qpsh functions and give necessary and sufficient conditions for them to have finite (weighted) energy, both in terms of the associated convex function in R n , and through t…

We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend on the amount wagered on those outcomes. By varying the `reality map', which rel…

Here we consider the discrete time dynamics described by a transformation $T:M \to M$, where $T$ is the shift and $M=\{1,2,...,d\}^\mathbb{N}$. It is known that the infinite-dimensional manifold $\mathcal{N}$ of Hölder equilibrium probabilities is an analytical manifold and carries a natural Riemannian metric. Given a …

Paper studies zero-sum games with noisy observations and identifies equilibrium conditions.

Optimization methods are used to determine equilibria of investment in cryptocurrencies. The basic assumptions involve existence of a core group (the "wealthy") that fears the loss of substantial assets through government seizure. Speculators constitute another group that tends to introduce volatility and risk for the …

The paper develops a new algorithm for constructing minimax estimators using online learning techniques.

We consider a simple model of a closed economic system where the total money is conserved and the number of economic agents is fixed. In analogy to statistical systems in equilibrium, money and the average money per economic agent are equivalent to energy and temperature, respectively. We investigate the effect of the …

The paper solves portfolio selection for complex preferences in continuous time.

Investment strategies for rank-dependent utility agents are derived in a continuous-time market.

Let $S$ be a closed oriented surface of genus at least $2$, and denote by $\mathcal{T}(S)$ its Teichm{ü}ller space. For any isotopy class of closed curves $γ$, we compute the first three derivatives of the length function $\ell\_γ:\mathcal{T}(S)\rightarrow\mathbf{R}\_+$ in the shearing coordinates associated to a maxim…

Motivated by the scarcity of accurate payoff feedback in practical applications of game theory, we examine a class of learning dynamics where players adjust their choices based on past payoff observations that are subject to noise and random disturbances. First, in the single-player case (corresponding to an agent tryi…

New bounds on trajectory safety in training models with Langevin Dynamics.

We consider the problem of online nonparametric regression with arbitrary deterministic sequences. Using ideas from the chaining technique, we design an algorithm that achieves a Dudley-type regret bound similar to the one obtained in a non-constructive fashion by Rakhlin and Sridharan (2014). Our regret bound is expre…

We study the Immediate Exchange model, recently introduced by Heinsalu and Patriarca [Eur. Phys. J. B 87: 170 (2014)], who showed by simulations that the wealth distribution in this model converges to a Gamma distribution with shape parameter $2$. Here we justify this conclusion analytically, in the infinite-population…

In this paper we provide an alternative framework to tackle the first-best Principal-Agent problem under CARA utilities. This framework leads to both a proof of existence and uniqueness of the solution to the Risk-Sharing problem under very general assumptions on the underlying contract space. Our analysis relies on an…

New algorithm for solving minimax problems over distributions converges to Nash equilibrium.

Validates economic scenarios using statistical tests on stochastic processes.

We propose an analytically tractable variation of the minority game in which rational agents use probabilistic strategies. In our model, $N$ agents choose between two alternatives repeatedly, and those who are in the minority get a pay-off 1, others zero. The agents optimize the expectation value of their discounted fu…

We show that an economic system populated by multiple agents generates an equilibrium distribution in the form of multiple scaling laws of conditional PDFs, which are sufficient for characterizing the probability distribution. The existence of the double scaling law is demonstrated empirically for the sales and the lab…

Study optimizes interbank lending and borrowing to reduce systemic risk.

The paper models insurance market dynamics under uncertainty and financial frictions.

In a unified framework we study equilibrium in the presence of an insider having information on the signal of the firm value, which is naturally connected to the fundamental price of the firm related asset. The fundamental value itself is announced at a future random (stopping) time. We consider two cases. First when t…

The origin of the long-range memory in the non-equilibrium systems is still an open problem as the phenomenon can be reproduced using models based on Markov processes. In these cases a notion of spurious memory is introduced. A good example of Markov processes with spurious memory is stochastic process driven by a non-…