Bitcoin's attention is linked to Google Trends data, not general uncertainty.
problem Bitcoin's correlation with Google Trends data was previously misunderstood.
method Analyzed bidirectional relationships between Bitcoin returns and Google Trends attention over six days.
result Information flows from Bitcoin volatility to Google Trends attention, not the other way.
Google Trends data improves economic forecasts of private consumption.
problem Improving economic forecasts of private consumption.
method Machine learning techniques applied to categorized Google search data.
result Google data can identify patterns to generate a leading indicator in real time.
Google Trends can lead to misleading forecasts if not used carefully.
problem Misleading forecasts due to the variability of Google Trends data.
method Analyzing the variability of Google Trends data and proposing solutions.
result Google Trends can be a problem if not used with caution.
Ethereum trends analyzed through blockchain transactions and Google searches.
problem Identifying market manipulation in crypto prices.
method Big data analysis of Ethereum transactions, smart contracts, and search volumes.
result Big players manipulate crypto markets after price drops.
Study links public concern in Italy to financial markets worldwide.
problem Understanding public concern's impact on financial markets during pandemics.
method Used Google Trends data from YouTube, News, and Search to measure public concern and correlate it with stock index returns.
result Public concern in Italy drives concerns in other countries and explains stock index returns of multiple nations.
Study evaluates clustering methods for Google Trends data.
problem Clustering high-dimensional, noisy time series data.
method Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX), Enhanced SAX (eSAX), and Topological Data Analysis (TDA).
result TDA provides more balanced and meaningful groupings than SAX and eSAX.
The paper uses data science to predict stock trends of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft.
problem Short-term market movement prediction for major tech stocks.
method Combination of technical analysis and machine/deep learning for trend classification.
result Generated labels for data set: +1 (buy), 0 (hold), -1 (sell).
Using non-linear machine learning methods and a proper backtest procedure, we critically examine the claim that Google Trends can predict future price returns. We first review the many potential biases that may influence backtests with this kind of data positively, the choice of keywords being by far the greatest culpr…
Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistica…
LSTM outperforms traditional models in forecasting international migration.
problem Precise forecasting of international migration for policymaking.
method Replaced a gravity linear model with an LSTM approach using Google Trends data.
result LSTM approach combined with Google Trends data outperforms existing models.
New method classifies nonlinear time series using deep CNNs and bispectra.
problem Classifying nonlinear time series data effectively.
method Combines HOSA with deep CNNs.
result Effective classification of nonlinear time series data.
We have applied a Long Short-Term Memory neural network to model S&P 500 volatility, incorporating Google domestic trends as indicators of the public mood and macroeconomic factors. In a held-out test set, our Long Short-Term Memory model gives a mean absolute percentage error of 24.2%, outperforming linear Ridge/Lasso…
Study finds 'happiness' search data predicts stock returns, suggesting utility needs impact firm performance.
problem Investing in firms that meet societal utility needs.
method Used Google Trends data on 'happiness' search volume to predict stock returns.
result Happiness search exposure (HSE) explains future stock returns, particularly for big and value firms.
Study detects emerging trends in financial news articles about Microsoft.
problem Challenges in identifying trends in long-form financial news articles.
method Topic modeling and term frequency for keyword similarity analysis.
result Demonstrates the influence of the pandemic on Microsoft.
We check the claims that data from Google Trends contain enough data to predict future financial index returns. We first discuss the many subtle (and less subtle) biases that may affect the backtest of a trading strategy, particularly when based on such data. Expectedly, the choice of keywords is crucial: by using an i…
Portfolio diversification and active risk management are essential parts of financial analysis which became even more crucial (and questioned) during and after the years of the Global Financial Crisis. We propose a novel approach to portfolio diversification using the information of searched items on Google Trends. The…
Investor attention predicts global equity market volatility during Ukraine invasion.
problem Predicting global equity market volatility during geopolitical events.
method Event-specific attention indices based on Google Trends, analyzed across 51 global equity markets.
result Investor attention significantly predicts volatility in countries with higher economic openness to Russia and closer to it.
Study examines how COVID-19 vaccine companies' popularity affects their stock prices.
problem Impact of COVID-19 vaccine development and rollout on stock prices and company popularity.
method Used Python and various libraries to analyze Google Trends data and stock prices of five vaccine companies.
result Significant correlation between Google Trend data and stock prices, with post-rollout periods showing a slight negative correlation.
Study compares altcoins to Bitcoin, analyzing their features and market performance.
problem Comparing altcoins to Bitcoin to understand market performance and features.
method Used Google Trend data, price, volume, and market capitalization data from coinmarketcap.com.
result Features of Litecoin, Zcash, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Gold affect market performance and user preferences.
Among other macroeconomic indicators, the monthly release of U.S. unemployment rate figures in the Employment Situation report by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics gets a lot of media attention and strongly affects the stock markets. I investigate whether a profitable investment strategy can be constructed by predic…
Study uses multiple online media to predict crude oil prices.
problem Forecasting crude oil prices using online media.
method Semantic analysis and ARIMAX models on Twitter, Google Trends, Wikipedia, and GDELT.
result Combined analysis from four platforms improves price prediction.
Bitcoin volatility can be predicted from price and alternative data.
problem Predicting Bitcoin volatility from market data.
method Modeling Bitcoin volatility using price, volatility momentum, and alternative data like sentiment and engagement.
result Bitcoin volatility can be predicted with a lag of several hours.
ChatGPT predicts stock trends from Twitter sentiment, showing positive effects.
problem Predicting stock market trends using social media sentiment.
method Used ChatGPT for sentiment analysis of Twitter posts about Microsoft and Google.
result ChatGPT's predictions correlated positively with stock performance.
Study uses web search data to analyze tech startups growth.
problem Analyzing growth dynamics of tech startups.
method Utilized Google Trends data for 241 US-based tech startups.
result Web search traffic correlates positively with tech startup growth.
MFIN networks improve crypto trading with multiple features.
problem Selecting and processing multiple features for effective trading.
method End-to-end framework using Multi-Factor Inception Networks (MFINs).
result MFINs learn uncorrelated, higher-Sharpe strategies not captured by traditional factors.
The paper combines Bitcoin price models with expert corrections for better predictions.
problem Improving Bitcoin price predictions using statistical and expert insights.
method Linear regression models combined with expert corrections, utilizing Bayesian approach for fat-tailed distributions.
result Better price prediction results compared to using either model or expert opinion alone.
Training deep learning models is compute-intensive and there is an industry-wide trend towards hardware specialization to improve performance. To systematically benchmark deep learning platforms, we introduce ParaDnn, a parameterized benchmark suite for deep learning that generates end-to-end models for fully connected…
This study examines how data types affect ML algorithms' performance in Bitcoin price prediction.
problem Improving the accuracy of Bitcoin price forecasts for financial gain.
method Constructed continuous and trend data from Bitcoin's historical data, applied various ML algorithms, and compared their performance using accuracy and AUC.
result Data type significantly impacts ML algorithms' performance in Bitcoin price prediction.
Empirical law predicts accuracy of Google Translate's translation chains.
problem Predicting accuracy in machine translation with multiple hops.
method Empirical testing of Google Translate's sequential translation.
result Accuracy decreases with the number of translating hops, following a power law.
Over the past decade, the blockchain technology and its Bitcoin cryptocurrency have received considerable attention. Bitcoin has experienced significant price swings in daily and long-term valuations. In this paper, we propose a partial differential equation (PDE) model on the bitcoin transaction network for predicting…
Open-source Vizier optimizes complex systems for Google and beyond.
problem Optimizing large-scale systems with multiple objectives and constraints.
method Distributed, fault-tolerant, flexible API for blackbox optimization.
result OSS Vizier supports a wide range of optimization problems and is available as open-source.
Efficiently trains BERT on academic GPUs in 12 days.
problem Training large-scale BERT models is expensive and time-consuming.
method Optimizes training on multiple GPUs and nodes, reducing costs.
result Trains BERT on academic GPUs in 12 days, not requiring expensive hardware.
Although there is a rich literature on methods for allowing the variance in a univariate regression model to vary with predictors, time and other factors, relatively little has been done in the multivariate case. Our focus is on developing a class of nonparametric covariance regression models, which allow an unknown p …
The rise in popularity of major social media platforms have enabled people to share photos and textual information about their daily life. One of the popular topics about which information is shared is food. Since a lot of media about food are attributed to particular locations and restaurants, information like spatio-…
Study uses Google matrix analysis to show how COVID-19 changed international trade flows.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on international trade patterns.
method Google matrix analysis of World Trade Network (WTN), including PageRank, CheiRank, and reduced Google matrix.
result Significant changes in international trade flows due to the pandemic, affecting export and import balances.
Study quantifies how COVID-19 spread affects US stock markets.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on US stock market during pandemic.
method Developed a novel temporal complex network approach using econometric and ML models.
result Local spread of COVID-19 and Google searches impact abnormal stock prices.
Google's Cloud TPUs are a promising new hardware architecture for machine learning workloads. They have powered many of Google's milestone machine learning achievements in recent years. Google has now made TPUs available for general use on their cloud platform and as of very recently has opened them up further to allow…
AI measures financial risk using linear quantile lasso regression.
problem Measuring systemic financial risk accurately and quantitatively.
method Linear quantile lasso regression with penalization parameter lambda.
result The Financial Risk Meter (FRM) is a valid measure of systemic risk.
This paper optimizes cryptocurrency portfolios by integrating sentiment analysis with technical indicators.
problem Effective portfolio management in volatile cryptocurrency markets.
method Dynamic portfolio strategy using technical indicators and sentiment analysis.
result The integrated approach outperforms traditional benchmarks and achieves stronger risk-adjusted returns.
Using the new data from the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities we construct the Google matrix G of this directed network and perform its detailed analysis. The network contains 58 countries and 37 activity sectors for years 1995 and 2008. The construction of G, based on Markov chain transitions, treats a…
Development of efficient business process models and determination of their characteristic properties are subject of intense interdisciplinary research. Here, we consider a business process model as a directed graph. Its nodes correspond to the units identified by the modeler and the link direction indicates the causal…
Large-scale datasets have played a significant role in progress of neural network and deep learning areas. YouTube-8M is such a benchmark dataset for general multi-label video classification. It was created from over 7 million YouTube videos (450,000 hours of video) and includes video labels from a vocabulary of 4716 c…
We study power-law correlations properties of the Google search queries for Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) component stocks. Examining the daily data of the searched terms with a combination of the rescaled range and rescaled variance tests together with the detrended fluctuation analysis, we show that the searche…
Proposes CLRS-Text, a new benchmark for evaluating LM reasoning capabilities.
problem Lack of transferable benchmarks for evaluating reasoning capabilities of language models.
method Developed a textual version of the CLRS benchmark, generating diverse algorithmic tasks.
result Demonstrates a novel challenge for the LM reasoning community and validates prior work.
Develops a new trend power indicator using DSP techniques.
problem Determining the strength and reversibility of trends.
method Derives a novel indicator using digital signal processing.
result Accuracy of the new indicator correlates with PNL performance.
There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election is a perfect example when politicians, through announced policies, sen…
This paper forecasts cryptocurrency log-returns using LASSO-VAR and sentiment analysis.
problem Forecasting log-returns of cryptocurrencies using social media sentiment.
method LASSO-VAR model combined with Twitter and Reddit sentiment data.
result The model predicts the correct direction of cryptocurrency returns more than 50% of the time.
This study analyzes app reviews to understand students' behavior in the app market.
problem Extracting sentiment from growing app reviews manually is impractical.
method Used machine learning algorithms with TF-IDF for text representation and ensemble learning for evaluation.
result SVM achieved the highest accuracy (93.37%) on tri-gram + TF-IDF scheme.