A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Given n samples from a population of individuals belonging to different types with unknown proportions, how do we estimate the probability of discovering a new type at the (n+1)-th draw? This is a classical problem in statistics, commonly referred to as the missing mass estimation problem. Recent results by Ohannes…
GT estimator shows convergence for Markov samples, improving i.i.d. results.
problem Estimating missing mass in Markov samples.
method Analyzed convergence of Good-Turing estimator for Markov samples, considering spectral properties of transition matrices.
result The convergence of the GT estimator for Markov samples depends on the spectral properties of the transition matrices, leading to a new minimax rate of 1/(nβ5) for rank-2 Markov chains.
We consider an original problem that arises from the issue of security analysis of a power system and that we name optimal discovery with probabilistic expert advice. We address it with an algorithm based on the optimistic paradigm and on the Good-Turing missing mass estimator. We prove two different regret bounds on t…
Estimating a large alphabet probability distribution from a limited number of samples is a fundamental problem in machine learning and statistics. A variety of estimation schemes have been proposed over the years, mostly inspired by the early work of Laplace and the seminal contribution of Good and Turing. One of the b…
We study three fundamental statistical-learning problems: distribution estimation, property estimation, and property testing. We establish the profile maximum likelihood (PML) estimator as the first unified sample-optimal approach to a wide range of learning tasks. In particular, for every alphabet size k and desired…
We present a multi-task learning approach to jointly estimate the means of multiple independent data sets. The proposed multi-task averaging (MTA) algorithm results in a convex combination of the single-task maximum likelihood estimates. We derive the optimal minimum risk estimator and the minimax estimator, and show t…
Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estim…
The maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) is a kernel-based distance between probability distributions useful in many applications (Gretton et al. 2012), bearing a simple estimator with pleasing computational and statistical properties. Being able to efficiently estimate the variance of this estimator is very helpful to vario…
Stochastic volatility modelling of financial processes has become increasingly popular. The proposed models usually contain a stationary volatility process. We will motivate and review several nonparametric methods for estimation of the density of the volatility process. Both models based on discretely sampled continuo…
This paper reviews SDR methods for multivariate response regression.
problem Handling sufficient dimension reduction for multivariate response regression.
method Characterizes SDR estimators as inverse or forward regression methods.
result Pooled marginal, projective resampling, distance-based, ordinary least squares, partial least squares, and semiparametric SDR estimators are discussed.
Density ratio estimation is a vital tool in both machine learning and statistical community. However, due to the unbounded nature of density ratio, the estimation procedure can be vulnerable to corrupted data points, which often pushes the estimated ratio toward infinity. In this paper, we present a robust estimator wh…
TAKDE optimizes kernel density estimation for real-time dynamic processes.
problem Real-time density estimation in applications like computer vision and signal processing.
method Derives asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) upper bound for 'sliding window' kernel density estimator and proposes TAKDE as a novel, theoretically optimal estimator.
result TAKDE outperforms other dynamic density estimators in terms of test log-likelihood and runtime.
We introduce two new estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting -- the cross-periodogram and local X-Whittle estimators -- as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the spectrum-based estimators are dependent on a part of the spectrum taken into consideration …
We formalize notions of robustness for composite estimators via the notion of a breakdown point. A composite estimator successively applies two (or more) estimators: on data decomposed into disjoint parts, it applies the first estimator on each part, then the second estimator on the outputs of the first estimator. And …