A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model forecasts global stock market volatility using dynamic graphs and all trading days.
We study the effect of globalization on the Korean market, one of the emerging markets. Some characteristics of the Korean market are different from those of the mature market according to the latest market data, and this is due to the influence of foreign markets or investors. We concentrate on the market network stru…
QuantNet learns global market trends to improve trading strategies.
We present a new model for prediction markets, in which we use risk measures to model agents and introduce a market maker to describe the trading process. This specific choice on modelling tools brings us mathematical convenience. The analysis shows that the whole market effectively approaches a global objective, despi…
The paper analyzes sterling bills of exchange during the first globalization, revealing their global financial role.
Graph Signal Processing improves stock market volatility forecasting.
Trade finance history traced from medieval origins to modern markets.
Analyzes how Trump's tweets impact global stock markets.
In the age of globalization, it is natural that the stock market of each country is not independent form the other markets. In this case, collective behavior could be emerged form their dependency together. This article studies the collective behavior of a set of forty influential markets in the world economy with the …
The study examines markets with multiple numéraires and finds equivalent martingale measures.
We applied Deep Q-Network with a Convolutional Neural Network function approximator, which takes stock chart images as input, for making global stock market predictions. Our model not only yields profit in the stock market of the country where it was trained but generally yields profit in global stock markets. We train…
The global financial system is highly complex, with cross-border interconnections and interdependencies. In this highly interconnected environment, local financial shocks and events can be easily amplified and turned into global events. This paper analyzes the dependencies among nearly 4,000 stocks from 15 countries. T…
With the random matrix theory, we study the spatial structure of the Chinese stock market, American stock market and global market indices. After taking into account the signs of the components in the eigenvectors of the cross-correlation matrix, we detect the subsector structure of the financial systems. The positive …
Financial global crisis has devastating impacts to economies since early XX century and continues to impose increasing collateral damages for governments, enterprises, and society in general. Up to now, all efforts to obtain efficient methods to predict these events have been disappointing. However, the quest for a rob…
Study detects anomalies in financial markets using GNN and nonextensive entropy.
Study fragility in global financial indices using network analysis.
The paper analyzes global inflation's systemic nature and its impact on equity markets.
Herd behavior is an important economic phenomenon, especially in the context of the recent financial crises. In this paper, herd behavior in global stock markets is investigated with a focus on intercontinental comparison. Since most existing herd behavior indices do not provide a comparative method, we propose a new h…
This article investigates the correlation structure of the global crude oil market using the daily returns of 71 oil price time series across the world from 1992 to 2012. We identify from the correlation matrix six clusters of time series exhibiting evident geographical traits, which supports Weiner's (1991) regionaliz…
This paper analyzes the process of long-run co-movements and stock market globalization on the basis of cointegration tests and vector error correction (VEC) models. The cointegration tests used here allow for structural breaks to be explicitly modeled and breakpoints to be computed on a relative-time basis. The data u…
Study shows how market efficiency changes during the pandemic.
Study reveals 2020 stock crashes were mostly endogenous, not exogenous.
Informer improves financial market prediction accuracy with global time stamp features.
The paper introduces a new financial market for environmental indices to attract investors.
Investor attention predicts global equity market volatility during Ukraine invasion.
We investigate whether fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and invest- ment horizons give reasonable predictions about dynamics of the financial markets during the turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, fractal markets hy…
This paper improves SABR/LMM for better practical use in global banks.
Since 2002 when China first introduced QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors) system, QFII has been developing in China for 14 years, during when RQFII, Shanghai-Hongkong Stock Connect Program, Shanghai-London Stock Connect Program furthur broadened the avenue for foreign capital to invest in Chinese Security…
Study applies Gai-Kapadia framework to global equity markets to assess systemic risk and default cascades.
Study extends Gai-Kapadia framework to assess systemic risk in global equity markets.
The cross-correlations between the exchange rate fluctuations of 74 currencies over the period 1995-2012 are analyzed in this paper. The eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix exhibits a bulk which approximately matches the bounds predicted from random matrices constructed using mutually uncorrelated t…
The paper challenges the assumption of a unique global time in financial markets, highlighting market incompleteness.
Study uses RL to optimize global equity portfolios, finds mixed results.
Recurring international financial crises have adverse socioeconomic effects and demand novel regulatory instruments or strategies for risk management and market stabilization. However, the complex web of market interactions often impedes rational decisions that would absolutely minimize the risk. Here we show that, for…
Model predicts global financial market risks and asset allocation.
Hypothesis of Market Efficiency is an important concept for the investors across the globe holding diversified portfolios. With the world economy getting more integrated day by day, more people are investing in global emerging markets. This means that it is pertinent to understand the efficiency of these markets. This …
Over-the-counter markets are at the center of the postcrisis global reform of the financial system. We show how the size and structure of such markets can undergo rapid and extensive changes when participants engage in portfolio compression, a post-trade netting technology. Tightly-knit and concentrated trading structu…
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
Myopic investors make suboptimal choices that benefit others, leading to market inefficiencies.
We analyze whether the prediction of the fractal markets hypothesis about a dominance of specific investment horizons during turbulent times holds. To do so, we utilize the continuous wavelet transform analysis and obtained wavelet power spectra which give the crucial information about the variance distribution across …
This study analyzes the correlation structure of global agricultural futures markets using RMT.
We discuss how minimal financial market models can be constructed by bridging the gap between two existing, but incomplete, market models: a model in which a population of virtual traders make decisions based on common global information but lack local information from their social network, and a model in which the tra…
After the shocking series of bankruptcies started in 2008, the public does not trust anymore the classical methods of assessing business risks. The global economic severe downturn caused demand for both developed and emerging economies' exports to drop and the crisis became truly global. However, this current crisis of…
In the current era of worldwide stock market interdependencies, the global financial village has become increasingly vulnerable to systemic collapse. The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the necessity of understanding and quantifying interdependencies among the world's economies, developing new effective …
We analyzed cross-correlations between price fluctuations of global financial indices (20 daily stock indices over the world) and local indices (daily indices of 200 companies in the Korean stock market) by using random matrix theory (RMT). We compared eigenvalues and components of the largest and the second largest ei…
A major impact of globalization has been the information flow across the financial markets rendering them vulnerable to financial contagion. Research has focused on network analysis techniques to understand the extent and nature of such information flow. It is now an established fact that a stock market crash in one co…
Develops a new framework to measure network connectedness across and within markets.
Study examines cross-training neural networks for financial index prediction.