arXiv research

Develops a model for bid and ask prices using stochastic control.

Develops a new model for pricing without arbitrage opportunities.

In Liang et al (2009), the current authors demonstrated that BSDEs can be reformulated as functional differential equations, and as an application, they solved BSDEs on general filtered probability spaces. In this paper the authors continue the study of functional differential equations and demonstrate how such approac…

One of the peculiarities of power and gas markets is the delivery mechanism of forward contracts. The seller of a futures contract commits to deliver, say, power, over a certain period, while the classical forward is a financial agreement settled on a maturity date. Our purpose is to design a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framew…

Proposes a method to estimate SDE noise from a single trajectory.

The paper simplifies calculus for semimartingales using multiplicative compensation.

It is generally understood that a given one-dimensional diffusion may be transformed by Cameron-Martin-Girsanov measure change into another one-dimensional diffusion with the same volatility but a different drift. But to achieve this we have to know that the change-of-measure local martingale that we write down is a tr…

URGE improves diffusion model quality without gradients or Hessian.

This paper is concerned with the following Markovian stochastic differential equation of mean-reversion type \[ dR_t= (θ+σα(R_t, t))R_t dt +σR_t dB_t \] with an initial value $R_0=r_0\in\mathbb{R}$, where $θ\in\mathbb{R}$ and $σ>0$ are constants, and the mean correction function $α:\mathbb{R}\times[0,\infty)\to α(x,t)\…

One way to interpret smoothness of a measure in infinite dimensions is quasi-invariance of the measure under a class of transformations. Usually such settings lack a reference measure such as the Lebesgue or Haar measure, and therefore we can not use smoothness of a density with respect to such a measure. We describe h…

The paper generalizes Feynman-Kac formula for volatility uncertainty.

This paper conditions non-linear infinite-dimensional diffusion processes.

The paper provides privacy guarantees for MCMC algorithms using Langevin dynamics.

The paper reviews historical and modern approaches to asset pricing probability measures.

In deep latent Gaussian models, the latent variable is generated by a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain, where at each time step we pass the current state through a parametric nonlinear map, such as a feedforward neural net, and add a small independent Gaussian perturbation. This work considers the diffusion limit of suc…

Paper shows minimum observation time for network recovery.

Without probability theory, we define classes of supermartingales, martingales, and semimartingales in idealized financial markets with continuous price paths. This allows us to establish probability-free versions of a number of standard results in martingale theory, including the Dubins-Schwarz theorem, the Girsanov t…

G-framework is presented by Peng [41] for measure risk under uncertainty. In this paper, we define fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm). Fractional G-Brownian motion is a centered G-Gaussian process with zero mean and stationary increments in the sense of sub-linearity with Hurst index $H\in (0,1)$. This process has sta…

Within the context of the banking-related literature on contingent convertible bonds, we comprehensively formalise the design and features of a relatively new type of insurance-linked security, called a contingent convertible catastrophe bond (CocoCat). We begin with a discussion of its design and compare its relative …

Unified error analysis for discrete flow models.

These lectures notes aim at introducing Lévy processes in an informal and intuitive way, accessible to non-specialists in the field. In the first part, we focus on the theory of Lévy processes. We analyze a `toy' example of a Lévy process, viz. a Lévy jump-diffusion, which yet offers significant insight into the distri…

Unified analysis for deterministic samplers in diffusion models.

Framework for transitioning financial models from risk-neutral to real-world measure.

Unified analysis of KL divergence using shifted composition for sampling.

We introduce the concept of no-arbitrage in a credit risk market under ambiguity considering an intensity-based framework. We assume the default intensity is not exactly known but lies between an upper and lower bound. By means of the Girsanov theorem, we start from the reference measure where the intensity is equal to…

We obtain option pricing formulas for stock price models in which the drift and volatility terms are functionals of a continuous history of the stock prices. That is, the stock dynamics follows a nonlinear stochastic functional differential equation. A model with full memory is obtained via approximation through a stoc…

In a 2006 article (\cite{A1}), Allouba gave his quadratic covariation differentiation theory for Itô's integral calculus. He defined the derivative of a semimartingale with respect to a Brownian motion as the time derivative of their quadratic covariation and a generalization thereof. He then obtained a systematic diff…

We propose different schemes for option hedging when asset returns are modeled using a general class of GARCH models. More specifically, we implement local risk minimization and a minimum variance hedge approximation based on an extended Girsanov principle that generalizes Duan's (1995) delta hedge. Since the minimal m…

FDPs generalize diffusion models to function spaces, enabling efficient image generation.

We develop a technique based on Malliavin-Bismut calculus ideas, for asymptotic expansion of dual control problems arising in connection with exponential indifference valuation of claims, and with minimisation of relative entropy, in incomplete markets. The problems involve optimisation of a functional of Brownian path…

New bounds show diffusion models converge nearly linearly in data dimension.

Improved reSGLD accelerates convergence in non-convex learning problems.

Develops new bounds for deterministic samplers in diffusion models.

We apply a quadratic hedging scheme developed by Foellmer, Schweizer, and Sondermann to European contingent products whose underlying asset is modeled using a GARCH process and show that local risk-minimizing strategies with respect to the physical measure do exist, even though an associated minimal martingale measure …

New method speeds up diffusion models inference to sub-linear time.

MINDE estimates Mutual Information using neural diffusion models.

The paper uses machine learning and Lie groups to improve rating transitions and XVA calculations.

A new method reduces Monte Carlo variance for financial payoffs.

This paper analyzes discrete diffusion models, deriving convergence bounds for their generated samples.

This work analyzes discrete diffusion models using stochastic integrals, providing error bounds and insights.

In this paper, we compare static and dynamic (reduced form) approaches for modeling wrong-way risk in the context of CVA. Although all these approaches potentially suffer from arbitrage problems, they are popular (respectively) in industry and academia, mainly due to analytical tractability reasons. We complete the sto…

We revisit the problem of pricing options with historical volatility estimators. We do this in the context of a generalized GARCH model with multiple time scales and asymmetry. It is argued that the reason for the observed volatility risk premium is tail risk aversion. We parametrize such risk aversion in terms of thre…

New complexity analysis for estimating normalizing constants in high dimensions.

Score matching errors are not sufficient for measuring diffusion model quality.

New geometric analysis shows $L^2$ score error is flawed for diffusion models.

GADD accelerates uniform-rate discrete diffusion models by 2 orders of magnitude.

Introduces Neural-Brownian Motion for modeling dynamics under learned uncertainty.

Improved sampling guarantees for underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo without restrictive assumptions.