A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Germany's tax admin costs likely exceed 20% of total revenue, requiring system improvement.
Study on excess mortality in Germany during 2020-21.
Study finds ESG investments more resilient than traditional equity indices during market turmoil.
Capital usually leads to income, and income is more accurately and easily measured. Thus we summarize income distributions in USA, Germany, etc.
This paper examines quantile dependence between international stock markets and evaluates its use for improving volatility forecasting. First, we analyze quantile dependence and directional predictability between the US stock market and stock markets in the UK, Germany, France and Japan. We use the cross-quantilogram, …
This short note serves as a historical introduction to the Hopf problem: "Does there exist a complex structure on ?" This unsolved mathematical question was the subject of the Conference "MAM 1 (Non-)Existence of Complex Structures on ", which took place at Philipps-Universität Marburg, Germany, between M…
In this paper we prove local results for solutions to the Ricci flow (heat flow) whose speed (height) is bounded by for some time interval . These results are contained in chapter 7 of the author's habilitation thesis, University of Freiburg, Germany, 2006.
New method models precipitation extremes and spatial dependence.
We point out a simple equities trading strategy that allows a sufficiently large, market-neutral, quantitative hedge fund to achieve outsized returns while simultaneously contributing significantly to increasing global wealth inequality. Overnight and intraday return distributions in major equity indices in the United …
Wide class of elliptically contoured distributions is a popular model of stock returns distribution. However the important question of adequacy of the model is open. There are some results which reject and approve such model. Such results are obtained by testing some properties of elliptical model for each pair of stoc…
We present a novel analysis extending the recent work of Mizuno et al. [2002] on the hyperinflations of Germany (1920/1/1-1923/11/1), Hungary (1945/4/30-1946/7/15), Brazil (1969-1994), Israel (1969-1985), Nicaragua (1969-1991), Peru (1969-1990) and Bolivia (1969-1985). On the basis of a generalization of Cagan's model …
Due to the liberalization of markets, the change in the energy mix and the surrounding energy laws, electricity research is a dynamically altering field with steadily changing challenges. One challenge especially for investment decisions is to provide reliable short to mid-term forecasts despite high variation in the t…
We utilize long-term memory, fractal dimension and approximate entropy as input variables for the Efficiency Index [Kristoufek & Vosvrda (2013), Physica A 392]. This way, we are able to comment on stock market efficiency after controlling for different types of inefficiencies. Applying the methodology on 38 stock marke…
We release a realistic, diverse, and challenging dataset for object detection on images. The data was recorded at a beer tent in Germany and consists of 15 different categories of food and drink items. We created more than 2,500 object annotations by hand for 1,110 images captured by a video camera above the checkout. …
In an analysis of the US, the UK, and the German stock market we find a change in the behavior based on the stock's beta values. Before 2006 risky trades were concentrated on stocks in the IT and technology sector. Afterwards risky trading takes place for stocks from the financial sector. We show that an agent-based mo…
Neural network model improves longevity risk assessment.
The abstract discusses open data resources for studying and controlling the spread of COVID-19.
We address the problem of inferring the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome across space, using observational data. The data is possibly subject to unmeasured confounding variables which, in a standard approach, must be adjusted for by estimating a nuisance function. Here we develop a method that eliminates the …
In the first half of 2018, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis) carried out a "Proof of Concept Machine Learning" as part of its Digital Agenda. A major component of this was surveys on the use of machine learning methods in official statistics, which were conducted at selected national and internationa…
The correlation coefficient between stocks depends on price history and includes information on hierarchical structure in financial markets. It is useful for portfolio selection and estimation of risk. I introduce the Life Time of Correlation between stocks prices to know how far we should investigate the price history…
In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919 and 1920, for which the period tables provided by the Human Mortality Database …
Novel approach models life events using causal discovery and survival analysis.
This talk reports on results on the deformation quantization (star products) and on approximative operator representations for quantizable compact K"ahler manifolds obtained via Berezin-Toeplitz operators. After choosing a holomorphic quantum line bundle the Berezin-Toeplitz operator associated to a differentiable func…
From the stock markets of six countries with high GDP, we study the stock indices, S&P 500 (NYSE, USA), SSE Composite (SSE, China), Nikkei (TSE, Japan), DAX (FSE, Germany), FTSE 100 (LSE, Britain) and NIFTY (NSE, India). The daily mean growth of the stock values is exponential. The daily price fluctuations about the me…
Clever sampling methods can be used to improve the handling of big data and increase its usefulness. The subject of this study is remote sensing, specifically airborne laser scanning point clouds representing different classes of ground cover. The aim is to derive a supervised learning model for the classification usin…
The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the European Power Exchange (EPEX) which incorporates specific features like…
We analyze three sets of income data: the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics PSID), the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). It is shown that the empirical income distribution is consistent with a two-parameter lognormal function for the low-middle income group (97%-99% of …
We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spr…
MPSA-DenseNet improves accent classification accuracy.
In this paper, we present a regression framework involving several machine learning models to estimate water parameters based on hyperspectral data. Measurements from a multi-sensor field campaign, conducted on the River Elbe, Germany, represent the benchmark dataset. It contains hyperspectral data and the five water p…
This paper analyses the behaviour of volatility for several international stock market indexes, namely the SP 500 (USA), the Nikkei (Japan), the PSI 20 (Portugal), the CAC 40 (France), the DAX 30 (Germany), the FTSE 100 (UK), the IBEX 35 (Spain) and the MIB 30 (Italy), in the context of non-stationarity. Our empirical …
Study links public concern in Italy to financial markets worldwide.
New model estimates indoor radon distribution with higher spatial resolution.
Federated learning calibrates insurance indices from renewable energy producers' data.
In terms of the stock exchange returns, we compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions F{DAX,+} and F{DAX,-} of the normalized positive and negative DAX (Germany) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the alpha re-scaled DAX daily index positive returns r(t)^alpha and negative returns (-…
This article is based on a lecture by the first author at the International Georgia Topology Conference 2001 (Athens, Georgia) and the Mathematische Arbeitstagung 2001 (Bonn, Germany). We sketch a proof of Witten's formula relating the Donaldson and Seiberg-Witten series modulo powers of degree c+2, with c = -{1/4}(7 c…
Study assesses drought and late-frost risks in Bavaria using vine copulas.
We determine the distribution of size and growthrates of German business firms in 1987-1997. We find a log-normal size distribution. The distribution of growth rates has fat tails. It can be fitted to an exponential in a narrow central region and is dominated by finite-sample-size effects far in its wings. We study the…
The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A variety of statistical tools are available, which detect potential outbreaks as abber…
Model analyzes debt recycling strategies under various fiscal regimes and jurisdictions.
Survey examines public views on facial recognition technology.
Generative model improves intraday electricity price forecasting.
A new credit scoring method using Gaussian Mixture Models.
A large amount of data accommodated in knowledge graphs (KG) is actually metric. For example, the Wikidata KG contains a plenitude of metric facts about geographic entities like cities, chemical compounds or celestial objects. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that transfers orometric (topographic) measures to…
The global financial system is highly complex, with cross-border interconnections and interdependencies. In this highly interconnected environment, local financial shocks and events can be easily amplified and turned into global events. This paper analyzes the dependencies among nearly 4,000 stocks from 15 countries. T…
The study finds that low frequency macroeconomic variables are more important for short-term electricity price forecasting.
We focus on the influence of external sources of information upon financial markets. In particular, we develop a stochastic agent-based market model characterized by a certain herding behavior as well as allowing traders to be influenced by an external dynamic signal of information. This signal can be interpreted as a …
A model proposed by Sornette, Takayasu, and Zhou for describing hyperinflation regimes based on adaptive expectations expressed in terms of a power law which leads to a finite-time singularity is revisited. It is suggested to express the price index evolution explicitly in terms of the parameters introduced along the t…