We present a relatively detailed analysis of the persistence probability distributions in financial dynamics. Compared with the auto-correlation function, the persistence probability distributions describe dynamic correlations non-local in time. Universal and non-universal behaviors of the German DAX and Shanghai Index…
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48 results for “German universities”
Study shows tuition fees in Germany reduce enrollment by up to 4.5%
problem Impact of German university tuition fees on enrollment rates
method Robust model selection and design-based inference in high-dimensions
result Significant negative impact of up to 4.5 percentage points on enrollment
Investigates if adding cryptocurrencies to German portfolios diversifies better, finding mixed results.
problem Improving diversification in German investor portfolios using cryptocurrencies.
method Portfolio analysis with descriptive statistics, graphical methods, and econometric spanning tests, using a customized EWCI.
result Cryptocurrencies can improve diversification in some windows but not as a normal case.
These are notes of a talk I gave in a seminar at the University of Pennsylvania summarizing results in the Habilitation by Jost Eschenburg on "Freie isometrische Aktionen auf kompakten Lie-Gruppen mit positiv gekruemmten Orbitraeumen". Due to the fact that it is published in a not easily accesible journal (and is writt…
German FinBERT improves financial text analysis performance.
problem Capturing domain-specific nuances in financial text.
method German FinBERT is a pre-trained German language model trained on a large corpus of financial data.
result German FinBERT outperforms standard models on finance-specific tasks.
Proposes a regularization approach to model German power derivative market, identifying significant risk spillovers.
problem Large portfolio of German power derivative contracts, identifying significant risk spillovers.
method Combines high-dimensional variable selection with dynamic network analysis.
result Identifies significant risk contributors and interdependencies between contracts, especially spot contracts.
These are notes of a talk I gave in a seminar at the University of Pennsylvania summarizing results in the Ph.D. thesis of Michael Mueter obtained under the direction of Wolfgang Meyer at the University of Muenster. His thesis on "Kruemmungserhoehende Deformationen mittels Gruppenaktionen" examines in detail curvature …
A spectral sequence in odd Khovanov homology (Eine Spektralsequenz in ungerader Khovanov-Homologie)math.GT
Ozsvath, Rasmussen and Szabo constructed odd Khovanov homology. It is a link invariant which has the same reduction modulo 2 as (even) Khovanov homology. Szabo introduced a spectral sequence with mod 2 coefficients from mod 2 Khovanov homology to another link homology. He got his spectral sequence from a chain complex …
Stylized Facts and Market Microstructure: An In-Depth Exploration of German Bond Futures Marketq-fin.ST
Study reveals stylized facts in German bond futures markets.
problem Understanding market dynamics in German bond futures.
method Analyzed tick-by-tick data of four German bond futures contracts.
result Uncovered commonalities and unique characteristics across different futures.
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions. Applying our methods to weekly Nordic and German electricity prices, and oi…
Short-term probabilistic forecasting of German electricity imbalance prices.
problem Uncertainty in renewable energy capacity and electricity prices.
method Combining lasso with bootstrap, gamlss, and probabilistic neural networks for forecasting imbalance prices.
result Sophisticated methods improve empirical coverage of imbalance prices but do not substantially outperform the intraday continuous price index.
Detects out-of-distribution sentences in Neural Machine Translation.
problem Identifying sentences from a different language than the training data.
method Developed a new uncertainty measure for long sequences of words in Transformers.
result Shows ability to identify Dutch sentences as German input.
Research optimizes a small RES utility's portfolio by dynamically trading in German electricity markets.
problem Managing risks in RES producers and electricity traders in changing electricity markets.
method Uses SVAR model to estimate market relationships and data-driven trading strategies to optimize revenue and reduce risk.
result Data-driven trading strategies increase utility revenue and reduce trading risk.
The grid integration of intermittent Renewable Energy Sources (RES) causes costs for grid operators due to forecast uncertainty and the resulting production schedule mismatches. These so-called profile service costs are marginal cost components and can be understood as an insurance fee against RES production schedule u…
In the following paper, we analyse the ID-Price in the German Intraday Continuous electricity market using an econometric time series model. A multivariate approach is conducted for hourly and quarter-hourly products separately. We estimate the model using lasso and elastic net techniques and perform an out-of-samp…
Low redispatch prices boost green hydrogen production cost, encouraging electrolyzer siting.
problem Uncertainty in redispatch power availability and its impact on green hydrogen production cost.
method Historic redispatch time series analysis and power purchase scenarios evaluation.
result Low price levels can lead to notable production cost reductions, incentivizing electrolyzer siting.
Based on the tick-by-tick stock prices from the German and American stock markets, we study the statistical properties of the distribution of the individual stocks and the index returns in highly collective and noisy intervals of trading, separately. We show that periods characterized by the strong inter-stock coupling…
Study on excess mortality in Germany during 2020-21.
problem Analyzing excess mortality during the pandemic in Germany.
method Empirical study using official death counts.
result Provided conclusions for insurance businesses.
For the first time, we apply the wavelet coherence methodology on biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) and a wide range of related commodities (gasoline, diesel, crude oil, corn, wheat, soybeans, sugarcane and rapeseed oil). This way, we are able to investigate dynamics of correlations in time and across scales (frequencie…
Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics and German Tanks: A Case Study of an Orienteering Relay Racestat.ML
Lognormal distribution used for predicting team rankings in an orienteering relay race.
problem Predicting final team rankings in an orienteering relay race.
method Used lognormal distribution and Fenton-Wilkinson approximations for order statistics.
result Accurate predictions of team rankings using order statistics.
Recent works have highlighted the strength of the Transformer architecture on sequence tasks while, at the same time, neural architecture search (NAS) has begun to outperform human-designed models. Our goal is to apply NAS to search for a better alternative to the Transformer. We first construct a large search space in…
We investigate the large-volatility dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after large volatilities is characterized by a power law, and the exponents usually vary with the strength of the large vo…
We investigate the large-fluctuation dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after the large fluctuations is characterized by a power law, and the exponents usually vary with the strength of the lar…
In this paper, we present Neural Phrase-based Machine Translation (NPMT). Our method explicitly models the phrase structures in output sequences using Sleep-WAke Networks (SWAN), a recently proposed segmentation-based sequence modeling method. To mitigate the monotonic alignment requirement of SWAN, we introduce a new …
One of the findings of the recent literature is that the 2008 financial crisis caused reduction in international diversification benefits. To fully understand the possible potential from diversification, we build an empirical model which combines generalised autoregressive score copula functions with high frequency dat…
Paper models and forecasts intra-day electricity price spreads.
problem Forecasting intra-day price spreads for electricity traders and operators.
method Dynamic density functions based on skewed-t distributions, conditional on exogenous drivers.
result Best fitting and forecasting specifications selected using Pinball Loss function.
The study uses neural networks to classify and predict coronavirus data.
problem Classifying and predicting coronavirus data from input variables.
method Artificial neural networks with logcosh loss function to classify branches of set-valued mappings.
result Successfully classified and predicted coronavirus data for each German district.
THieF improves day-ahead electricity price prediction accuracy by reconciling hourly and block forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting day-ahead electricity prices.
method Temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) reconciling hourly and block forecasts.
result THieF significantly improves accuracy (up to 13%) at all levels of prediction.
The article prices exchange options using variance gamma-like models.
problem Pricing exchange options under specific stochastic processes.
method Derives formulas for variance gamma and variance gamma++ processes, constructs multidimensional versions, calibrates parameters with real data.
result Closed formulas and numerical methods for evaluating exchange options.
Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate estimation of forecast uncertainties for optimal decision making.
method Implicit generative ensemble post-processing using an ensemble of point forecasting models.
result Method outperforms well-established model combination benchmarks.
This paper contributes to the literature on international stock market comovements and contagion. The novelty of our approach lies in application of wavelet tools to high-frequency financial market data, which allows us to understand the relationship between stock markets in a time-frequency domain. While major part of…
Based on the tick-by-tick price changes of the companies from the U.S. and from the German stock markets over the period 1998-99 we reanalyse several characteristics established by the Boston Group for the U.S. market in the period 1994-95, which serves to verify their space and time-translational invariance. By increa…
This paper has been submitted to the Proceedings of the Australian-German Workshop on Differential Geometry in the Large held at the mathematical research institute MATRIX in Creswick, Victoria, Australia, Feb.2-Feb.14, 2019. We describe and discuss 2 important open problems in Sasaki geometry.
The growth dynamics of German business firmscond-mat.stat-mech
We determine the distribution of size and growthrates of German business firms in 1987-1997. We find a log-normal size distribution. The distribution of growth rates has fat tails. It can be fitted to an exponential in a narrow central region and is dominated by finite-sample-size effects far in its wings. We study the…
Efficiency in foreign exchange marketscond-mat.dis-nn
A quantitative check of weak efficiency in US dollar/German mark exchange rates is developed using high frequency data. We show the existence of long term return anomalies. We introduce a technique to measure the available information and show it can be profitable following a particular trading rule.
Optimal energy trading strategy for intraday markets using Hawkes processes.
problem Optimal execution in intraday energy markets with specific trading patterns.
method Calibrated Hawkes process model with transient price impact.
result Substantial cost reductions in TWAP and VWAP benchmarks.
The goal of this modern presentation, followed by an English translation from the German, is to make available some parts of Lie's very systematic mathematical thought which deserve to join the contemporary literature, and above all also, to be read.
This paper improves bidding price prediction for ancillary services markets, boosting revenues.
problem Volatility in renewable energy sources affects grid stability and revenue optimization.
method Machine learning models (SVR, DT, k-NN) and offset adjustment for pay-as-bid markets.
result The proposed approach increases potential revenues by 27.43% to 37.31% compared to baseline models.
Recently, substantial progress has been made in language modeling by using deep neural networks. However, in practice, large scale neural language models have been shown to be prone to overfitting. In this paper, we present a simple yet highly effective adversarial training mechanism for regularizing neural language mo…
Convolutional neural networks are the most widely used deep learning algorithms for traffic signal classification till date but they fail to capture pose, view, orientation of the images because of the intrinsic inability of max pooling layer.This paper proposes a novel method for Traffic sign detection using deep lear…
Optimizes bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity markets to reduce price impact.
problem Maximizing profit in two consecutive electricity markets with market impact and transaction costs.
method Examined multiple price scenarios, estimated market impact, used trading strategies, provided theoretical results.
result Minimizing price impact is more profitable than maximizing arbitrage in the German EPEX market.
Estimates price elasticity from autocorrelated time series using causal graphs.
problem Inconsistent IV estimators in autocorrelated time series data.
method Model equilibrium with unobserved confounders, derive DAG, and use graphical inference for valid IV estimators.
result Valid IV estimators improve understanding of economic dynamics.
Scenario-based testing for the safety validation of highly automated vehicles is a promising approach that is being examined in research and industry. This approach heavily relies on data from real-world scenarios to derive the necessary scenario information for testing. Measurement data should be collected at a reason…
We examine the novel problem of the estimation of transaction arrival processes in the intraday electricity markets. We model the inter-arrivals using multiple time-varying parametric densities based on the generalized F distribution estimated by maximum likelihood. We analyse both the in-sample characteristics and the…
Hybrid and end-to-end models compare in syllable recognition.
problem Comparing hybrid and end-to-end models for syllable recognition.
method Traditional hybrid system (kaldi) vs. end-to-end (TensorFlow) models.
result Hybrid models with explicit syllable knowledge outperform end-to-end models.
Financial markets are highly correlated systems that reveal both the inter-market dependencies and the correlations among their different components. Standard analyzing techniques include correlation coefficients for pairs of signals and correlation matrices for rich multivariate data. In the latter case one constructs…
We find numerical and empirical evidence for dynamical, structural and topological phase transitions on the (German) Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FSE) in the temporal vicinity of the worldwide financial crash. Using the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) technique, a particularly useful canonical tool of the graph theory, two tr…
Enhances topic-metadata relationship modeling using Bayesian methods.
problem Estimating relationships between latent topics and metadata in topic modeling.
method Proposes modifications to the method of composition, using Beta regression and a fully Bayesian approach.
result Improves quantification of uncertainty in topic-metadata relationships.