A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study reveals stylized facts in German bond futures markets.
We apply the formalism of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) theory to financial tick data of the bond futures transacted in Korean Futures Exchange (KOFEX) market. For our case, the tick dynamical behaviors of the returns and volatility for bond futures are treated particularly at the long-time limit. The volatili…
We study the tick dynamical behavior of the bond futures in Korean Futures Exchange(KOFEX) market. Since the survival probability in the continuous-time random walk theory is applied to the bond futures transaction, the form of the decay function in our bond futures model is discussed from two kinds of Korean Treasury …
This paper constructs and studies the long-term factorization of affine pricing kernels into discounting at the rate of return on the long bond and the martingale component that accomplishes the change of probability measure to the long forward measure. The principal eigenfunction of the affine pricing kernel germane t…
Bond prices are a reflection of extremely complex market interactions and policies, making prediction of future prices difficult. This task becomes even more challenging due to the dearth of relevant information, and accuracy is not the only consideration--in trading situations, time is of the essence. Thus, machine le…
We analyze the time series of overnight returns for the bund and btp futures exchanged at LIFFE (London). The overnight returns of both assets are mapped onto a one-dimensional symbolic-dynamics random walk: The `bond walk'. During the considered period (October 1991 - January 1994) the bund-future market opened earlie…
A pricing formula for discount bonds, based on the consideration of the market perception of future liquidity risk, is established. An information-based model for liquidity is then introduced, which is used to obtain an expression for the bond price. Analysis of the bond price dynamics shows that the bond volatility is…
Accurate volatility modelling is paramount for optimal risk management practices. One stylized feature of financial volatility that impacts the modelling process is long memory explored in this paper for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for high frequency intraday UK futures. Volatility …
Improved queue-reactive model considers order sizes for better market simulation.
Corporate bond factor research is flawed due to measurement errors and ex-post filtering.
We explore the effect of past market movements on the instantaneous correlations between assets within the futures market. Quantifying this effect is of interest to estimate and manage the risk associated to portfolios of futures in a non-stationary context. We apply and extend a previously reported method called the P…
The study compares VaR and ES models for tail risk of electricity futures, finding AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) with Student-t distribution best.
Research optimizes a small RES utility's portfolio by dynamically trading in German electricity markets.
German FinBERT improves financial text analysis performance.
The Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) formulation of treasury bonds in terms of forward rates is recast as a problem in path integration. The HJM-model is generalized to the case where all the forward rates are allowed to fluctuate independently. The resulting theory is shown to be a two-dimensional Gaussian quantum field theo…
Paper introduces EEMs for pricing contingent claim returns.
A study finds that only a few factors explain corporate bond risk, rendering extensive bond factor literature redundant.
We apply the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) framework, introduced in finance by Scalas et al., to the analysis of the probability distribution of time intervals between two consecutive trades in the case of BTP futures prices traded at LIFFE in 1997. Results corroborate the validity of the CTRW approach for the des…
Unified framework matches equity and bond yields.
We introduce the minority game theory for two kinds of the Korean treasury bond (KTB) in Korean futures exchange markets. Since we discuss numerically the standard deviation and the global efficiency for an arbitrary strategy, our case is found to be approximate to the majority game. Our result presented will be compar…
Machine learning models show intermarket data can predict stock market performance better than expected.
Model predicts OTC dealers' trading behavior using historical data.
The study identifies features making cross-impact relevant in explaining price variance of US assets.
Modeling longevity bonds with a Vasicek model for better risk management.
Proposes a regularization approach to model German power derivative market, identifying significant risk spillovers.
Empirical study on long-term discount rates using historical bond prices.
Extends credit risky bond market models to include jumps and general semimartingales.
Study improves prediction of commodity futures using multi-factor model.
An efficient method to price bonds with optional sinking feature is presented. Such instruments equip their issuer with the option (but not the obligation) to redeem parts of the notional prior to maturity, therefore the future cash flows are random. In a one-factor model for the issuer's default intensity we show that…
We introduce Hermite fractional financial markets, where market uncertainties are described by multidimensional Hermite motions. Hermite markets include as particular cases financial markets driven by multivariate fractional Brownian motion and multivariate Rosenblatt motion. Conditions for no-arbitrage and market comp…
We introduce the entropic measure transform (EMT) problem for a general process and prove the existence of a unique optimal measure characterizing the solution. The density process of the optimal measure is characterized using a semimartingale BSDE under general conditions. The EMT is used to reinterpret the conditiona…
Stochastic model for pension insurer assets and liabilities with mortality risk.
Research explores how local communities and corporations interact in finance.
Over the last decade, dividends have become a standalone asset class instead of a mere side product of an equity investment. We introduce a framework based on polynomial jump-diffusions to jointly price the term structures of dividends and interest rates. Prices for dividend futures, bonds, and the dividend paying stoc…
We propose a modification of the classical Black-Derman-Toy (BDT) interest rate tree model, which includes the possibility of a jump with small probability at each step to a practically zero interest rate. The corresponding BDT algorithms are consequently modified to calibrate the tree containing the zero interest rate…
Shorting IG ETFs can hedge bond portfolios during market drawdowns effectively.
We find numerical and empirical evidence for dynamical, structural and topological phase transitions on the (German) Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FSE) in the temporal vicinity of the worldwide financial crash. Using the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) technique, a particularly useful canonical tool of the graph theory, two tr…
This paper uses crypto derivatives data to estimate yield curves for cryptocurrencies.
Study of bonded knots and braids with new algebraic models.
Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in…
Research aims to predict fallen angel bonds' bankruptcy using machine learning.
A method for multidimensional probabilistic electricity market forecasting is proposed.
Developed algebraic theory of bonded braids, proving Markov theorem.
We implement a Tensor Train layer in the TensorFlow Neural Machine Translation (NMT) model using the t3f library. We perform training runs on the IWSLT English-Vietnamese '15 and WMT German-English '16 datasets with learning rates , maximum ranks and a range of core dime…
We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able to capture seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and the extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual purely deterministic trend we introduce a non-stationary independent increments process for the low-frequency dynamics, and model the la…
It has been suggested that marked point processes might be good candidates for the modelling of financial high-frequency data. A special class of point processes, Hawkes processes, has been the subject of various investigations in the financial community. In this paper, we propose to enhance a basic zero-intelligence o…
The herd behavior of returns is investigated in Korean futures exchange market. It is obtained that the probability distribution of returns for three types of herding parameter scales as a power law with the exponents (KTB203) and 2.9(KTB209) in two kinds of Korean treasury bond. For our case since the…
A new multi-factor model improves commodity pricing accuracy.