New method uses DTW to evaluate neural network forecasts of geomagnetic indices.
problem Evaluation metrics fail to capture persistence behavior in neural network forecasts.
method Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to measure time series similarity, training neural networks to remove persistence.
result DTW reveals persistence behavior in neural network forecasts, confirming visual inspection.
In this paper, we present a new location fingerprinting database comprised of Wi-Fi received signal strength (RSS) and geomagnetic field intensity measured with multiple devices at a multi-floor building in Xi'an Jiatong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China. We also provide preliminary results of localization and trajec…
Enhances NOAA's Geospace model with machine learning for predicting ground magnetic perturbations.
problem Predicting the probability of ground magnetic field changes.
method Combining physics-based model with machine learning (boosted ensemble of classification trees).
result The ML-enhanced model consistently improves probabilistic forecast metrics.
Neural Bayes methods simplify fitting complex bivariate extremal models.
problem Inference on complex multivariate extremal dependence models with computationally expensive likelihood functions.
method Use neural networks to approximate Bayes estimators and classifiers for model selection.
result Proposed neural Bayes methods enable routine implementation of complex extreme-value dependence models.
New model predicts particle precipitation from magnetosphere to ionosphere.
problem Improving prediction of electron particle precipitation from magnetosphere to ionosphere.
method Compilation of new database, use of machine learning (ML) tools, neural network (PrecipNet).
result PrecipNet achieves >50% reduction in errors and better captures dynamic changes.
Develops non-parametric tests for group symmetry in data.
problem Lack of statistical tests for group symmetry in data.
method Formulates and implements non-parametric tests for distributional symmetry under specified groups.
result Develops tests for conditional invariance/equivariance and applies them to real-world data.
2L-FUSE enhances feature sparsity through kernel learning.
problem Sparsity and feature selection in regression tasks.
method 2-Layered kernel machines for learning a shape matrix and feature direction identification.
result Minimal yet informative feature sets are identified without losing predictive performance.
Euler explored spherical geometry using trigonometric formulae and solid geometry methods.
problem Developing trigonometric formulae for spherical geometry.
method Used calculus of variations and classical solid geometry methods.
result Established trigonometric formulae and computed spherical triangle areas.
Machine learning detects and characterizes whistler radio waves for real-time monitoring of the plasmasphere.
problem Detect and characterise whistler radio waves generated by lightning strokes for real-time monitoring of the plasmasphere.
method Developed a machine learning model using image classification and localisation on spectrogram data to identify and localise whistlers.
result The proposed detectors achieve a misdetection and false alarm rate of less than 15% on Marion's dataset.
Composite development indicators used in policy making often subjectively aggregate a restricted set of indicators. We show, using dimensionality reduction techniques, including Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and for the first time information filtering and hierarchical clustering, that these composite indicators m…
Optimal text-based indices track VIX and inflation.
problem Maximizing contemporaneous relation or predictive performance with target variables.
method Optimizing text-based indices focusing on VIX and inflation expectations.
result Superior performance compared to existing indices.
Indices of vector fields and 1-forms studied for singular varieties and actions.
problem Understanding indices of vector fields and 1-forms in various contexts.
method Generalization to singular varieties and actions of finite groups.
result New insights into indices of vector fields and 1-forms.
We analyzed cross-correlations between price fluctuations of global financial indices (20 daily stock indices over the world) and local indices (daily indices of 200 companies in the Korean stock market) by using random matrix theory (RMT). We compared eigenvalues and components of the largest and the second largest ei…
This study examined how the correlation and network structure of 30 global indices and 145 local Korean indices belonging to the KOSPI 200 have changed during the 13-year period, 2000-2012. The correlations among the indices were calculated. The results showed that although the average correlations of the global indice…
Financial market created for wellbeing indices to mitigate socioeconomic risks.
problem Risk mitigation in financial indices of socioeconomic wellbeing.
method Developed new quantitative measure, created financial market, and implemented insurance instruments.
result Optimal portfolio weights and efficient frontiers for wellbeing indices.
We study the dynamic interactions and structural changes in global financial indices in the years 1998-2012. We apply a principal component analysis (PCA) to cross-correlation coefficients of the stock indices. We calculate the correlations between principal components (PCs) and each asset, known as PC coefficients. A …
Financial markets worldwide do not have the same working hours. As a consequence, the study of correlation or causality between financial market indices becomes dependent on wether we should consider in computations of correlation matrices all indices in the same day or lagged indices. The answer this article proposes …
The paper shows how reducible complexes affect local indicability.
problem The local indicability of subcomplexes in reducible complexes.
method Characterization of diagrammatic reducibility and application to local indicability.
result Injective labeled oriented trees are locally indicable if reducible of degree 2.
New Monte Carlo method outperforms existing strategy for estimating Sobol' indices.
problem Estimating first-and total-orders Sobol' indices accurately.
method Comparing two Monte Carlo estimators for Sobol' indices.
result New method outperforms current approach in accuracy.
Invariants for virtual and twisted links using affine indices.
problem Computing invariants for virtual and twisted links.
method Using affine indices to define invariants for virtual and twisted links.
result Invariants for virtual and twisted links computed using affine indices.
Investigates local indicability of groups with circle homology presentations.
problem Conditions for local indicability in groups with circle homology presentations.
method Generalizes results for two-relator presentations to circle homology presentations.
result Extends results on local indicability to LOT groups and non-cycle-free Adian presentations.
We apply RMT, Network and MF-DFA methods to investigate correlation, network and multifractal properties of 20 global financial indices. We compare results before and during the financial crisis of 2008 respectively. We find that the network method gives more useful information about the formation of clusters as compar…
Novel approach detects early warning indicators in complex systems.
problem Detecting abrupt transitions in complex systems.
method Directed anisotropic diffusion map and latent stochastic dynamical systems.
result Early warning indicators can detect tipping points in state transitions.
A non-parametric method for ranking stock indices according to their mutual causal influences is presented. Under the assumption that indices reflect the underlying economy of a country, such a ranking indicates which countries exert the most economic influence in an examined subset of the global economy. The proposed …
In unsupervised machine learning, agreement between partitions is commonly assessed with so-called external validity indices. Researchers tend to use and report indices that quantify agreement between two partitions for all clusters simultaneously. Commonly used examples are the Rand index and the adjusted Rand index. …
New algorithm forecasts health indicators for better equipment lifespan prediction.
problem Improving equipment lifespan prediction through health indicator forecasting.
method Generative + scenario matching approach using Gaussian Process.
result Superior performance compared to existing methods.
New indices for determining cluster compactness and separability.
problem Challenges in identifying true clusters in data sets.
method Developed absolute cluster indices to measure compactness and separability.
result Demonstrated improved performance compared to existing indices.
Study fragility in global financial indices using network analysis.
problem Monitor fragility in global financial indices.
method Network-based approach to analyze daily closing prices of global financial indices.
result Network-centric measures reveal fragility in global financial indices.
We define analytic indices which involve the eta form and the analytic torsion form. We show that these indices are independent of the geometric choices made in their definitions, and hence are topological in nature.
Study shows HFT improves market liquidity indicators.
problem Impact of high-frequency trading on market liquidity.
method Agent-based simulations comparing HFT and non-HFT markets.
result All liquidity indicators improved in markets with HFTs.
This research simplifies computation of feature attribution methods under certain conditions.
problem Computational complexity of feature attribution methods, especially power indices.
method Identifying conditions for polynomial computation and introducing new indices.
result Conditions for efficient computation of feature attribution methods are identified.
The paper introduces a new financial market for environmental indices to attract investors.
problem Inherent risks and sustainability concerns in environmental investments.
method Quantitative measures, econometric analysis, dynamic asset pricing tools, and financial options.
result Monetization and construction of country-specific environmental indices as dollar-denominated assets.
This research finds three meta-indicators for university rankings.
problem Complexity in university ranking systems.
method Interpretable machine learning approach.
result Identified three meta-indicators: time, space, and relationships.
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for studying coherent acceptability indices in a dynamic setup. We study dynamic coherent acceptability indices and dynamic coherent risk measures, and we establish a duality between them. We derive a representation theorem for dynamic coherent risk measures in terms of …
The study analyzes performance indices for class-imbalanced data and identifies conditions they must meet.
problem Distortions in performance indices under class imbalance.
method Identified two conditions for performance indices and analyzed four binary and five multi-class indices.
result Recommended appropriate indices for evaluating classifiers in class-imbalanced scenarios.
We propose a new indicator for technical analysis. The indicator emphasizes maximums and minimums in price series with inherent smoothing and has a potential to be useful in both mechanical trading rules and chart pattern analysis.
Extends coherence results to one-relator products of locally indicable groups.
problem Coherence in one-relator products of locally indicable groups.
method Developed new methods to extend results of Helfer, Wise, Louder, Wilton, and Brodsky.
result New proof of a theorem by Brodsky.
We give a formula to calculate the indices of special (non-totally geodesic) minimal orbits of Hermann actions. Also, we give examples of such minimal orbits of Hermann actions and calculate their indices by using the formula.
New parities defined on virtual knots linked to crossing indices.
problem Defining parities on virtual knots.
method Connecting parities to invariant cycles on arcs and quasi-indices on crossings.
result New series of parities on virtual knots defined.
Improved MACD trading strategies with other indicators for better performance.
problem Evaluating the effectiveness of MACD-based trading strategies in the US stock market.
method Backtested various MACD-based trading strategies on US stock indices using Python.
result Win-rate of MACD strategies improved with other momentum indicators, leading to a new VPVMA indicator.
Generalizes Collins' theorem to products of locally indicable groups.
problem Intersection of conjugates of Magnus subgroups in one-relator groups.
method Generalization to one-relator products of locally indicable groups.
result Result holds for a broader class of groups.
Study finds traditional technical indicators underperform in high-frequency trading, suggesting risk management over prediction.
problem Inadequately explored effectiveness of technical indicators in high-frequency trading, particularly at minute-level frequency.
method Evaluation of random forest models with traditional technical indicators on minute-level SPY data.
result In-sample performance is superior to out-of-sample, with risk-adjusted metrics not outperforming a simple buy-and-hold strategy.
This paper provides a unified framework, which allows, in particular, to study the structure of dynamic monetary risk measures and dynamic acceptability indices. The main mathematical tool, which we use here, and which allows us to significantly generalize existing results is the theory of L0-modules. In the first p…
Gittins indices provide an optimal solution to the classical multi-armed bandit problem. An obstacle to their use has been the common perception that their computation is very difficult. This paper demonstrates an accessible general methodology for the calculating Gittins indices for the multi-armed bandit with a detai…
Study shows diverse data sources improve cryptocurrency forecasting models.
problem Improving cryptocurrency market forecasting accuracy.
method Integrating various data types, including on-chain metrics, traditional indices, and macroeconomic indicators.
result Data source diversity significantly enhances forecasting model performance.
Invariant detects sliceness of virtual knots with specific chord indices.
problem Detecting sliceness in virtual knots with chord indices.
method Constructs an invariant using sliceness obstruction and sensitivity to Δ-move.
result Invariant detects sliceness and is sensitive to chord indices.
Study uses Hawkes processes to analyze stock market contagion in China.
problem Understanding contagion in Chinese stock market.
method Fitting Hawkes processes to daily returns and sector indices.
result Identifies long-term dependencies and trending patterns in sector indices.
The purpose of this research is to apply technical analysis of Sutte Indicator in stock trading which will assist in the investment decision making process i.e. buying or selling shares. This research takes data of "A" on the Indonesia Stock Exchange(IDX or BEI) 29 November 2006 until 20 September 2016 period. To see t…