arXiv research

Random variables of the generalized Pareto distribution, can be transformed to that of the Pareto distribution. Explicit expressions exist for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the Pareto distribution. The performance of the estimation of the shape parameter of generalized Pareto distributed using …

Unexpectedly, weighted Pareto variables are stochastically dominant.

Diversification improves profits for heavy-tailed investments.

In order to study the phenomenon in detail that income distribution follows Pareto law, we analyze the database of high income companies in Japan. We find a quantitative relation between the average capital of the companies and the Pareto index. The larger the average capital becomes, the smaller the Pareto index becom…

New algorithms identify Pareto optimal sets in multi-objective bandit problems.

Agents prefer non-diversification in markets with extreme losses.

Pareto's 80/20 rule follows a Gaussian distribution with twice the mean standard deviation.

A new method for multi-objective Bayesian optimization using entropy search and variational lower bound maximization.

Importance weighting is a general way to adjust Monte Carlo integration to account for draws from the wrong distribution, but the resulting estimate can be highly variable when the importance ratios have a heavy right tail. This routinely occurs when there are aspects of the target distribution that are not well captur…

New method uses extreme value theory to estimate neural network errors.

This work presents an empirical study of the evolution of the consumer expenditure distribution in India during 1982-2007. We have used the National Sample Survey Organization data and analysed the expenditure distribution for the urban and rural sectors. It is found that this distribution is a mixture of two distribut…

Optimal income crossover found using particle swarm optimization.

Multi-task learning is a powerful method for solving multiple correlated tasks simultaneously. However, it is often impossible to find one single solution to optimize all the tasks, since different tasks might conflict with each other. Recently, a novel method is proposed to find one single Pareto optimal solution with…

We develop a general framework, based on Boltzmann transport theory, to analyze the distribution of wealth in societies. Within this framework we derive the distribution function of wealth by using a two-party trading model for the poor people while for the rich people a new model is proposed where interaction with wea…

We improve generative models for heavy-tailed multivariate data using an invariant statistical loss.

Financial markets display scale-free behavior in many different aspects. The power-law behavior of part of the distribution of individual wealth has been recognized by Pareto as early as the nineteenth century. Heavy-tailed and scale-free behavior of the distribution of returns of different financial assets have been c…

Using public data (Forbes Global 2000) we show that the asset sizes for the largest global firms follow a Pareto distribution in an intermediate range, that is ``interrupted'' by a sharp cut-off in its upper tail, where it is totally dominated by financial firms. This flattening of the distribution contrasts with a lar…

A large consensus now seems to take for granted that the distributions of empirical returns of financial time series are regularly varying, with a tail exponent close to 3. We revisit this results and use standard tests as well as develop a battery of new non-parametric and parametric tests (in particular with stretche…

We analyze the distribution of income and income tax of individuals in Japan for the fiscal year 1998. From the rank-size plots we find that the accumulated probability distribution of both data obey a power law with a Pareto exponent very close to -2. We also present an analysis of the distribution of the debts owed b…

Statistical models of economic distributions lead to Boltzmann distributions rather than a Pareto power law. This result is supported by two facts: 1. the distributions of income, car sales, marriages or jobs are a matter of chances and luck and not of reason! 2. Data for property, automobile sales, marriages and job m…

In this paper a quantitative analysis of the ruin probability in finite time of discrete risk process with proportional reinsurance and investment of finance surplus is focused on. It is assumed that the total loss on a unit interval has a light-tailed distribution -- exponential distribution and a heavy-tailed distrib…

Paper introduces a new robust method for estimating Pareto tail index from grouped data.

PAIR optimizes machine learning models to generalize better to out-of-distribution data.

The higher-end tail of the wealth distribution in India is studied using recently published lists of the wealth of richest Indians between the years 2002-4. The resulting rank distribution seems to imply a power-law tail for the wealth distribution, with a Pareto exponent between 0.81 and 0.92 (depending on the year un…

This work analyzes the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD) of personal income, formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the economically less favorable part of the population of a country, and the Pareto power law, which describes its tiny richest part. Equations for the…

We have numerically simulated the ideal-gas models of trading markets, where each agent is identified with a gas molecule and each trading as an elastic or money-conserving two-body collision. Unlike in the ideal gas, we introduce (quenched) saving propensity of the agents, distributed widely between the agents ($0 \le…

By employing exhaustive lists of large firms in European countries, we show that the upper-tail of the distribution of firm size can be fitted with a power-law (Pareto-Zipf law), and that in this region the growth rate of each firm is independent of the firm's size (Gibrat's law of proportionate effect). We also find t…

A new multivariate distribution possessing arbitrarily parametrized and positively dependent univariate Pareto margins is introduced. Unlike the probability law of Asimit et al. (2010) [Asimit, V., Furman, E. and Vernic, R. (2010) On a multivariate Pareto distribution. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 46(2), 308-31…

A computational model for the distribution of wealth among the members of an ideal society is presented. It is determined that a realistic distribution of wealth depends upon two mechanisms: an asymmetric flux of wealth in trading transactions that advantages the poorer of the two traders and a non-stationary creation …

The so-called "Yard-Sale Model" of wealth distribution posits that wealth is transferred between economic agents as a result of transactions whose size is proportional to the wealth of the less wealthy agent. In recent work [B.M. Boghosian, "Kinetics of Wealth and the Pareto Law," {\it Phys. Rev. E} {\bf 89} (2014) 042…

Pareto distributions, and power laws in general, have demonstrated to be very useful models to describe very different phenomena, from physics to finance. In recent years, the econophysical literature has proposed a large amount of papers and models justifying the presence of power laws in economic data. Most of the ti…

This paper deals with optimally-robust parameter estimation in generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs). These arise naturally in many situations where one is interested in the behavior of extreme events as motivated by the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan extreme value theorem (PBHT). The application we have in mind is calcula…

We propose a strategy for approximating Pareto optimal sets based on the global analysis framework proposed by Smale (Dynamical systems, New York, 1973, pp. 531-544). The method highlights and exploits the underlying manifold structure of the Pareto sets, approximating Pareto optima by means of simplicial complexes. Th…

Proposes a new way to represent and analyze Pareto front surfaces.

SURF steers scalarization weights to uniformly traverse the Pareto front.

Generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) models extending the (70 year old) logistic equation to stochastic systems consisting of a multitude of competing auto-catalytic components lead to power distribution laws of the (100 year old) Pareto-Zipf type. In particular, when applied to economic systems, GLV leads to power laws in…

This study considers a model of the income distribution of agents whose pairwise interaction is asymmetric and price-invariant. Asymmetric transactions are typical for chain-trading groups who arrange their business such that commodities move from senior to junior partners and money moves in the opposite direction. The…

We model a closed economic system with interactions that generates the features of empirical wealth distribution across all wealth brackets, namely a Gibbsian trend in the lower and middle wealth range and a Pareto trend in the higher range, by simply limiting the an agents' interaction to only agents with nearly the s…

The personal income distribution (PID) above the Pareto threshold is studied and modeled. A microeconomic model is proposed to simulate the PID and its evolution below and above the Pareto income threshold. The model balances processes of income production and dissipation for any person above 15 years of age. The model…

Improved symbolic regression finds optimal formulas robust to noise.

A-GPS learns to generate Pareto sets efficiently with user preferences.

The purpose of this work is to develop and study a distributed strategy for Pareto optimization of an aggregate cost consisting of regularized risks. Each risk is modeled as the expectation of some loss function with unknown probability distribution while the regularizers are assumed deterministic, but are not required…

The Kinetic Gas Theory like two-agent money exchange models, recently introduced in the Econophysics of Wealth distributions, are revisited. The emergence of Boltzmann-Gibbs like distribution of individual money to Pareto's law in the tail of the distribution is examined in terms of 2x2 Transition matrix with a general…

In this article we show the relationship between the Pareto distribution and the gamma distribution. This shows that the second one, appropriately extended, explains some anomalies that arise in the practical use of extreme value theory. The results are useful to certain phenomena that are fitted by the Pareto distribu…

The so-called Pareto-Levy or power-law distribution has been successfully used as a model to describe probabilities associated to extreme variations of worldwide stock markets indexes data and it has the form $Pr(X>x) ~ x**(-alpha) for gamma< x <infinity. The selection of the threshold parameter gamma$ from empirical d…

The rich-get-richer mechanism (agents increase their ``wealth'' randomly at a rate proportional to their holdings) is often invoked to explain the Pareto power-law distribution observed in many physical situations, such as the degree distribution of growing scale free nets. We use two different analytical approaches, a…

Employing profits data of Japanese firms in 2003--2005, we kinematically exhibit the static log-normal distribution in the middle scale region. In the derivation, a Non-Gibrat's law under the detailed balance is adopted together with following two approximations. Firstly, the probability density function of profits gro…

Algorithm identifies Pareto set in bandits with contaminated feedback.