A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper develops a state-space approach to deep Gaussian processes for efficient state estimation.
In this paper we investigate a link between state- space models and Gaussian Processes (GP) for time series modeling and forecasting. In particular, several widely used state- space models are transformed into continuous time form and corresponding Gaussian Process kernels are derived. Experimen- tal results demonstrat…
A novel multi-resolution Gaussian process model for efficient time traversal.
Active learning selects inputs for GPSSM to learn latent states.
We provide a comprehensive overview and tooling for GP modeling with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods. The state space formulation allows for solving one-dimensional GP models in time and memory complexity. While existing literature has focused on the connection between GP regression …
Robust state-space radio interferometric imaging using Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization
Develops state-space deep Gaussian processes for irregular signals.
An incremental/online state dynamic learning method is proposed for identification of the nonlinear Gaussian state space models. The method embeds the stochastic variational sparse Gaussian process as the probabilistic state dynamic model inside a particle filter framework. Model updating is done at measurement sample …
A new method for Gaussian filtering using gradient flows and Wasserstein metrics.
In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable as it involves integrals of general nonlinear functions and the filtered and sm…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gauss…
Gaussian processes allow for flexible specification of prior assumptions of unknown dynamics in state space models. We present a procedure for efficient Bayesian learning in Gaussian process state space models, where the representation is formed by projecting the problem onto a set of approximate eigenfunctions derived…
The use of Gaussian process models is typically limited to datasets with a few tens of thousands of observations due to their complexity and memory footprint. The two most commonly used methods to overcome this limitation are 1) the variational sparse approximation which relies on inducing points and 2) the state-space…
Gaussian processes are used in machine learning to learn input-output mappings from observed data. Gaussian process regression is based on imposing a Gaussian process prior on the unknown regressor function and statistically conditioning it on the observed data. In system identification, Gaussian processes are used to …
A new model detects anomalies in time series data efficiently.
ETGPSSM efficiently models high-dimensional, non-stationary systems with reduced complexity.
A new active learning method for Gaussian process models.
New method speeds up Gaussian process inference for large datasets.
Generalizes bits back coding for time-series models with latent Markov structures.
We prove a conjecture about approximating Gaussian Processes on one dimension.
The problem of combined state and input estimation of linear structural systems based on measured responses and a priori knowledge of structural model is considered. A novel methodology using Gaussian process latent force models is proposed to tackle the problem in a stochastic setting. Gaussian process latent force mo…
New GP model tackles physics constraints efficiently.
State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse Gaussian processes. The result of learning is a tractable posterior over nonlinear dy…
Paper proposes a recursive GPSSM for efficient online learning.
Improved Gaussian Process model for predicting trajectories without independence assumption errors.
Combines deep state space models with diffusion models for better forecasting and capturing latent dynamics
The paper introduces a new pairs trading model using nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
A new method learns complex dynamical systems from data efficiently.
New method for efficient Bayesian inference in GPSSMs.
A new statistical model uses Orlicz-Sobolev spaces with Gaussian weight.
New method for state inference in state-space models with unknown dynamics.
We consider a nonlinear state-space model with the state transition and observation functions expressed as basis function expansions. The coefficients in the basis function expansions are learned from data. Using a connection to Gaussian processes we also develop priors on the coefficients, for tuning the model flexibi…
We propose a novel method for maximum likelihood-based parameter inference in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian state space models. The method is an iterative procedure with three steps. At each iteration a particle filter is used to estimate the value of the log-likelihood function at the current parameter iterate. Using …
Paper uses variational inference to estimate nonlinear models.
Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for forecasting, removing noise, and interpreting long temporal datasets. State space modelling (Kalman filtering) enables these non-parametric models to be deployed on long datasets by reducing the complexity to linear in the number of data points. The complexity is stil…
The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e., computing a posterior of the latent state given the model. However, the key challenge in…
GWI combines deep neural networks with Gaussian processes for better predictive performance and uncertainty quantification.
Proposes DLGPD model to learn dynamics from images for planning.
Combines pseudo-point and state space approximations for scalable GPs.
The state space (SS) representation of Gaussian processes (GP) has recently gained a lot of interest. The main reason is that it allows to compute GPs based inferences in O(n), where is the number of observations. This implementation makes GPs suitable for Big Data. For this reason, it is important to provide a SS …
Bayesian filtering approach identifies nonlinear restoring forces in dynamic systems.
New variational inference approach using Hilbert space for robotic state estimation.
A Bayesian filtering algorithm is developed for a class of state-space systems that can be modelled via Gaussian mixtures. In general, the exact solution to this filtering problem involves an exponential growth in the number of mixture terms and this is handled here by utilising a Gaussian mixture reduction step after …
We propose a new variational inference algorithm for learning in Gaussian Process State-Space Models (GPSSMs). Our algorithm enables learning of unstable and partially observable systems, where previous algorithms fail. Our main algorithmic contribution is a novel approximate posterior that can be calculated efficientl…
The study characterizes canal hypersurfaces in Euclidean spaces and their curvature properties.
A method for robust reinforcement learning in large state spaces.
We introduce a framework for model learning and planning in stochastic domains with continuous state and action spaces and non-Gaussian transition models. It is efficient because (1) local models are estimated only when the planner requires them; (2) the planner focuses on the most relevant states to the current planni…
We show that the visible sector probability density function of the Riemann-Theta Boltzmann machine corresponds to a gaussian mixture model consisting of an infinite number of component multi-variate gaussians. The weights of the mixture are given by a discrete multi-variate gaussian over the hidden state space. This a…