Paper improves confidence set construction for SGD using multiplier bootstrap.
problem Constructing accurate confidence sets for SGD.
method Multiplier bootstrap procedure for non-asymptotic validity.
result Derives approximation rates up to 1 / n 1/\sqrt{n} 1/ n for convex distance. Paper improves confidence intervals for LSA with multiplier bootstrap.
problem Improving confidence intervals for parameter estimation in LSA.
method Berry-Esseen bound for multivariate normal approximation and multiplier bootstrap.
result Valid confidence intervals for parameter estimation in LSA.
Paper develops Gaussian approximations and bootstrap for federated LSA with trade-off bounds.
problem Analyzing convergence rates and trade-offs in federated linear stochastic approximation.
method Established Berry-Esseen-type bounds for federated LSA, developed multiplier bootstrap for inference.
result First federated Gaussian approximations with explicit trade-off terms and non-asymptotic validity guarantees.
Gaussian and bootstrap methods improve ATE estimator accuracy.
problem Improving the accuracy of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimators.
method Gaussian approximation and bootstrap procedures.
result Precise bounds on ATE estimator accuracy quantifying key parameters.
The paper provides Gaussian approximations for decentralized Federated Learning.
problem Lack of asymptotic statistical guarantees for local SGD in Federated Learning.
method Two generalized Gaussian approximation results for local SGD trajectories.
result Valid multiplier bootstrap procedures and Gaussian bootstrap-based tests for detecting adversarial attacks.
SIREN protocol corrects optimistic winner's scores in LLM evaluation.
problem Optimistic winner's scores in LLM evaluation due to adaptive benchmarking.
method SIREN protocol that freezes post-search shortlist, separates selection and evaluation, and uses bootstrap for uncertainty quantification.
result SIREN provides valid confidence intervals for procedure-performance curves and deployment conclusions.
Paper improves CLT and bootstrap approximations for LSA with decreasing step size.
problem Improving normal approximation and bootstrap methods for LSA with decreasing step sizes.
method Refined Berry-Esseen bounds and multiplier bootstrap procedure for LSA.
result Approximation rates up to 1 / n 1/\sqrt{n} 1/ n for LSA rescaled error distribution. New bootstraps improve speed and accuracy for graph count functionals.
problem Efficiently counting subgraphs in large graphs.
method Developed two types of multiplier bootstraps: a fast, approximate linear one and a quadratic one for denser graphs.
result Both bootstraps provide valid inference and higher-order accuracy under different graph sparsity conditions.
Paper derives convergence rates and confidence intervals for LSA with Markovian noise.
problem Analyzing convergence rates and constructing confidence intervals for LSA with Markovian noise.
method Derives non-asymptotic Berry-Esseen bounds and multiplier block bootstrap procedure.
result Provides O ( n − 1 / 4 ) \mathcal{O}(n^{-1/4}) O ( n − 1/4 ) convergence rates and guarantees consistent inference. New framework assesses LLMs' expertise using nonparametric ranking and confidence diagrams.
problem Evaluating and ranking large language models (LLMs) for alignment and performance.
method Nonparametric contextual ranking, confidence diagram, Gaussian multiplier bootstrap.
result Validated confidence diagram for assessing LLMs' domain-specific expertise.
Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) method is arguably the most celebrated one used in online decision making with partial information feedback. Existing techniques for constructing confidence bounds are typically built upon various concentration inequalities, which thus lead to over-exploration. In this paper, we propose a n…
Paper develops methods for statistical inference with SGD in nonconvex optimization.
problem Statistical inference for nonconvex optimization problems.
method Proposes two online inferential procedures combining SGD and bootstrap techniques.
result Establishes error convergence rates and asymptotically valid bootstrap confidence intervals.
Efficiently bootstraps massive distributed data without over-resampling.
problem Statistical inference for massive distributed data.
method Distributed Bootstrap applied to gradients from worker machines.
result Proves optimal statistical efficiency with minimal communication.
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for an identified set's boundary (i.e., support function) where the selection among a very large number of covariates is based on modern regularized tools. I characterize the boundary using a semiparametric moment equation. Combining Neyman-orthogonality and sample s…
Estimates causal effects using machine learning for binary treatment and mediator.
problem Estimating direct and indirect quantile treatment effects under selection-on-observables.
method Double/debiased machine learning estimators based on efficient score functions.
result Uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of effect estimators.
Develops statistical confidence sets for multidimensional scaling.
problem Statistical uncertainty in multidimensional scaling of noisy data.
method Formal statistical framework, distributional convergence results, uniform confidence sets, bootstrap procedures.
result Construction of reliable confidence sets for latent configurations in multidimensional scaling.
Develops methods for estimating and providing confidence bands in sparse high-dimensional additive models.
problem Estimating and providing reliable confidence bands for nonparametric components in high-dimensional additive models.
method Integrates sieve estimation into a high-dimensional Z-estimation framework, employing a multiplier bootstrap procedure.
result Constructs uniformly valid confidence bands for the target component f 1 f_1 f 1 in sparse high-dimensional additive models. Proposes a private empirical bootstrap for Gaussian Differential Privacy.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in massive data under Differential Privacy.
method Gaussian Differential Private Bootstrap by Subsampling.
result Consistent and efficient private inference method.
We quantify uncertainty in Oja's algorithm's leading eigenvector estimation.
problem Estimating the error of Oja's algorithm's leading eigenvector from streaming data.
method Combining U-statistics, high-dimensional central limit theorems, and multiplier bootstrap.
result Established a weighted χ² approximation for the error between the eigenvector and algorithm output.
This paper proposes a unified framework to quantify local and global inferential uncertainty for high dimensional nonparanormal graphical models. In particular, we consider the problems of testing the presence of a single edge and constructing a uniform confidence subgraph. Due to the presence of unknown marginal trans…
Researchers use Gaussian processes to approximate Lagrange multipliers for Maximum-Entropy distributions.
problem Finding Lagrange multipliers for Maximum-Entropy distributions is computationally challenging.
method Employed Gaussian processes to approximate the Lagrange multipliers as a map of moments. Optimized hyperparameters by maximizing log-likelihood.
result Data-driven Maximum-Entropy closure performs well in approximating non-equilibrium distributions.
Bagging stabilizes linear interpolators, improving their generalization performance.
problem Unstable linear interpolators fail on noisy data.
method Introduced multiplier-bootstrap-based bagged least square estimator.
result Bagging effectively mitigates variance, leading to bounded prediction risk.
Kernel ridge regression inference for nonstandard data.
problem Inferential theory for kernel ridge regression with nonstandard data.
method Constructs valid and sharp confidence sets using anti-symmetric multipliers.
result Develops a test for match effects in school matching mechanisms.
We investigate the use of bootstrapping in the bandit setting. We first show that the commonly used non-parametric bootstrapping (NPB) procedure can be provably inefficient and establish a near-linear lower bound on the regret incurred by it under the bandit model with Bernoulli rewards. We show that NPB with an approp…
Data augmented bootstrap unifies various confidence interval construction methods.
problem Constructing confidence intervals from data transformations.
method Data augmented bootstrap (DAB) framework.
result Establishes theoretical coverage results for DAB methods.
Structural equation models and Bayesian networks have been widely used to study causal relationships between continuous variables. Recently, a non-Gaussian method called LiNGAM was proposed to discover such causal models and has been extended in various directions. An important problem with LiNGAM is that the results a…
New DP bootstrap method for statistical inference with improved privacy and accuracy.
problem Lack of general techniques for conducting statistical inference under differential privacy.
method DP bootstrap procedure to infer sampling distribution and construct confidence intervals.
result DP bootstrap estimates provide consistent point estimates and asymptotically valid standard CIs.
New method for estimating high-dimensional binary time series coefficients.
problem Statistical inference for high-dimensional binary time series.
method Post-selection estimator and second-order wild bootstrap algorithm.
result Good finite-sample performance of the proposed method.
Automates debiasing for large language model evaluations through Fisher random walk.
problem Rigorous and scalable evaluation of large language models.
method Semiparametric efficient estimator using Fisher random walk for weighted residual balancing.
result Efficient estimation of contextual preference scores for large language models.
Unified method for inference on partially identified causal effects using covariates.
problem Partial identification of causal effects due to unobserved joint potential outcomes.
method Model-agnostic approach using duality theory for optimal transport problems.
result Uniformly valid inference for a wide class of estimands, even with inaccurate nuisance parameter estimates.
New method for inference on covariates in NMF with random effects.
problem Formal inference for covariate effects in NMF with non-negativity constraints.
method NMF-RE model with random effects, ridge updates, df-based cap, asymptotic linearization, wild bootstrap.
result Valid inference on covariates with non-negativity constraint, avoiding degeneracy.
BYOV combines SSL and Bayesian methods for uncertainty estimation.
problem Model uncertainty in applications.
method Combines Bootstrap Your Own Latent (BYOL) and Bayes by Backprop (BBB).
result BYOV improves model calibration and reliability with various augmentations.
The paper provides CI for test unfairness of group-fairness-aware classifiers trained with online SGD.
problem Ensuring fairness in machine learning models trained with stochastic gradient descent.
method Developed an online multiplier bootstrap method to estimate CI for test unfairness of DI and DM-aware linear classifiers.
result Asymptotic Central Limit Theorem holds for CI estimation of DI and DM-aware models.
New algorithm for estimating MLR parameters with non-Gaussian noise.
problem Estimating MLR parameters with non-Gaussian noise.
method Combining ADMM with EM algorithm idea.
result Our method outperforms EM algorithm in non-Gaussian noise case.
Boosts kernel two-sample test power with multiple kernels.
problem Detecting differences between two distributions over metric spaces.
method Combining MMD estimates over multiple kernels using Mahalanobis distance.
result More powerful in detecting a wide range of alternatives in finite samples.
BNEM improves Boltzmann sampler efficiency.
problem Generating IID samples from Boltzmann distributions efficiently.
method Bootstrapped Noised Energy Matching (NEM) combined with diffusion-based learning and bootstrapping.
result BNEM achieves state-of-the-art performance with improved robustness.
A new method boosts exploration in bandit algorithms, reducing regret.
problem Improving exploration in bandit algorithms with bounded or unbounded rewards.
method Residual Bootstrap Exploration (ReBoot) method that injects data-driven randomness.
result Proves logarithmic regret in Gaussian multi-armed bandits with appropriate variance inflation.
The paper develops methods to infer membership probabilities and rank network nodes using the DCMM model.
problem Understanding the latent structure of network data, especially in mixed-membership models.
method Degree-Corrected Mixed Membership (DCMM) model, novel finite-sample expansion, asymptotic distributions, confidence intervals, multiplier bootstrap method.
result Valid inference on membership probabilities and node rankings, quantifying uncertainty.
The paper develops methods for causal inference from single-cell RNA sequencing data with multiple outcomes.
problem Causal inference from single-cell RNA sequencing data with multiple heterogeneous outcomes.
method Generic semiparametric inference framework for doubly robust estimation with multiple derived outcomes.
result Demonstrates the use of semiparametric inferential results for estimating causal effects in genomics.
Ridge regression is revisited with debiasing and thresholding, offering advantages over Lasso.
problem High-dimensional data challenges classical ridge regression's sparsity detection and bias issues.
method Debiasing and thresholding ridge regression, introducing a wild bootstrap for confidence regions and hypothesis testing, and a hybrid bootstrap for prediction intervals.
result Debiased and thresholded ridge regression can offer similar performance to thresholded Lasso and may be preferable in some settings.
SDRF estimates complex survey designs for conditional distributions.
problem Estimating conditional distributions under complex survey designs.
method Survey-calibrated distributional random forest (SDRF) with pseudo-population bootstrap and MMD split criterion.
result Established design consistency and model consistency for survey designs.
The paper ranks items based on top choices in multiway comparisons.
problem Ranking items based on top choices in multiway comparisons.
method Uniform sampling scheme, statistical rates of convergence, asymptotic normality, maximum likelihood estimator, Gaussian multiplier bootstrap.
result Proposed inference framework for ranking items through maximum pairwise difference statistic.
Optimizes a small set of centroid points to approximate bootstrap distribution.
problem Computational inefficiency of standard bootstrap methods in large-scale machine learning.
method Explicitly optimizes a small set of high quality centroid points to approximate the ideal bootstrap distribution.
result Accurately estimates uncertainty with a small number of bootstrap centroids, outperforming i.i.d. sampling.
Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior modes. Further, all models are misspecified, which brings into question the val…
Gaussian process is a very promising novel technology that has been applied to both the regression problem and the classification problem. While for the regression problem it yields simple exact solutions, this is not the case for the classification problem, because we encounter intractable integrals. In this paper we …
AR-Sieve Bootstrap improves Random Forest time series prediction accuracy.
problem Inaccurate time series prediction due to inadequate resampling methods.
method Combines Random Forest with AR-Sieve Bootstrap for better resampling.
result AR-Sieve Bootstrap leads to more accurate predictions compared to other methods.
We consider the performance of the bootstrap in high-dimensions for the setting of linear regression, where p < n p<n p < n but p / n p/n p / n is not close to zero. We consider ordinary least-squares as well as robust regression methods and adopt a minimalist performance requirement: can the bootstrap give us good confidence intervals fo…
Cryptocurrency markets treat infrastructure failures and regulatory shocks differently, but the effect is not statistically significant.
problem Understanding how cryptocurrency markets differentiate between infrastructure failures and regulatory shocks.
method A multi-moment event study using GJR-GARCH-X model with matched dependence-robust inference.
result The differential impact of infrastructure failures and regulatory shocks on cryptocurrency markets is not statistically significant.