Deterministic method for certifying neural network robustness.
problem Certifying neural network robustness against adversarial attacks.
method Equivalence between training and Gaussian averaging for robustness certification.
result Comparable certified accuracy and robustness to stochastic methods but with single model evaluation.
Bayesian model averaging improves causal effect estimation by averaging over multiple models.
problem Estimating causal effects under linear Structural Causal Models (SCMs).
method Bayesian model averaging using Gaussian scale mixture distributions for computational efficiency.
result Bayesian model averaging is optimal for causal effect estimation.
Improved generalization with iterate averaging and adaptive algorithms.
problem Enhancing model generalization performance in high-dimensional settings.
method Gaussian process perturbation model, combine IA with large learning rates and regularisation, less frequent averaging, adaptive gradient methods.
result Iterate averaging with adaptive algorithms significantly outperforms SGD on various datasets.
We use variational Gaussian approximations to analyze parametric models with unknown data-generating distributions.
problem Analyzing inference and learning in parametric models with unknown or intractable data-generating distributions.
method Replica method with variational Gaussian approximation in grand canonical formalism.
result Stationarity conditions adaptively determine parameters of the trial Hamiltonian for each dataset.
Gaussian and bootstrap methods improve ATE estimator accuracy.
problem Improving the accuracy of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimators.
method Gaussian approximation and bootstrap procedures.
result Precise bounds on ATE estimator accuracy quantifying key parameters.
The paper shows Gaussian fluctuations in eigenvalue statistics of random hyperbolic surfaces.
problem Understanding fluctuations in Laplace eigenvalues of random hyperbolic surfaces.
method Analyzing fluctuations of linear statistics of Laplace eigenvalues over moduli space of surfaces of large genus.
result The distribution of linear statistics tends to a Gaussian as the genus of surfaces increases.
Paper improves BN structure learning from incomplete data.
problem Learning BN structure from incomplete data.
method Node-Average Likelihood (NAL) approach.
result NAL proves consistent and identifiable for conditional Gaussian BNs.
RF models implicitly regularize kernel methods as feature count increases.
problem Understanding implicit regularization in RF models.
method Random matrix theory applied to Gaussian RF models and KRR.
result The average RF predictor is close to a KRR predictor with an effective ridge.
GACTGAN synthesizes tabular data better with less computational overhead.
problem Synthesizing mixed tabular data while balancing risk and utility.
method Integrates Bayesian posterior approximation with Stochastic Weight Averaging-Gaussian (SWAG) in CTGAN.
result GACTGAN produces better synthetic data with reduced privacy risk.
The paper explores how market trade values and volumes affect price and return statistics.
problem Understanding the statistical properties of market trade, price, and return.
method Introduces secondary averaging procedure to describe statistical moments of market trades, price, and return.
result Predictions of market-based probabilities of price and return are limited by Gaussian distributions.
In this paper we investigate the scaling behavior of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is found to exhibit a persistent scaling…
In mixture model-based clustering applications, it is common to fit several models from a family and report clustering results from only the `best' one. In such circumstances, selection of this best model is achieved using a model selection criterion, most often the Bayesian information criterion. Rather than throw awa…
Study on Gaussian ensemble of matrix products with mixed moments computed.
problem Understanding the statistical properties of matrix products of Gaussian matrices.
method Analysis of a multi-Wishart ensemble and enumeration of non-crossing pairings.
result Mixed moments of the product matrix are computed and found to be weighted by Fuss-Catalan numbers at large N. Study reveals supply chain correlations in firm growth rates.
problem Understanding correlations in firm growth rates and their supply chain relationships.
method Investigated correlation structure of firm growth rates and used Gaussian Markov Models to reconstruct supply chain networks.
result Supply chain-linked firms exhibit stronger correlation in growth rates than non-linked firms.
A new Bayesian modeling method is proposed by combining the maximization of the marginal likelihood with a momentum-space renormalization group transformation for Gaussian graphical models. Moreover, we present a scheme for computint the statistical averages of hyperparameters and mean square errors in our proposed met…
Model monthly VIX and stock returns using log-Heston model.
problem Modeling monthly VIX and stock index returns accurately.
method Log-Heston model applied to logarithm of VIX as an autoregression, normalizing stock returns by VIX.
result Model captures independent, identically distributed Gaussian stock returns after normalization.
Unified framework improves robust causal inference, overcoming Gaussian barriers and optimization issues.
problem Improving robust causal inference in non-Gaussian settings.
method Combines gamma-Divergence, GNC, and Gatekeeper mechanism.
result Enhanced robustness and global optimization in causal effect estimation.
FGPR uses averaging and SGD for federated GP regression, excelling in personalization and multi-fidelity modeling.
problem Privacy-preserving multi-fidelity data modeling and personalization.
method Federated Gaussian process framework with averaging and SGD for local computations.
result FGPR converges to a critical point of the full log-likelihood function, excels in personalization and multi-fidelity modeling.
Sornette et al. claimed that the optimal supply does not agree with the average demand, by analyzing a bakery model where a daily demand fluctuates with a uniform distribution. In this note, we extend the model to general probability distributions, and obtain the formula of the optimal supply for Gaussian distribution,…
The posterior variance of Gaussian processes is a valuable measure of the learning error which is exploited in various applications such as safe reinforcement learning and control design. However, suitable analysis of the posterior variance which captures its behavior for finite and infinite number of training data is …
Deep neural networks learn by averaging fast variables, revealing a Gaussian process.
problem Analyzing the complex behavior of deep neural networks (DNNs) with billions of parameters.
method Identifying slow variables that average the erratic behavior of fast microscopic variables in fully trained DNNs.
result DNN layers couple only through the second moment (kernels) of their activations and pre-activations, which fluctuate in a nearly Gaussian manner.
Efficient method for pricing Bermudan moving average options using GPR-GHQ.
problem High-dimensional pricing of Bermudan moving average options in energy markets.
method Gaussian Process Regression and Gauss-Hermite quadrature.
result GPR-GHQ method efficiently handles long windows and high dimensionality.
We propose SWA-Gaussian (SWAG), a simple, scalable, and general purpose approach for uncertainty representation and calibration in deep learning. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), which computes the first moment of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) iterates with a modified learning rate schedule, has recently been sho…
We show that if F is a convex class of functions that is L-subgaussian, the error rate of learning problems generated by independent noise is equivalent to a fixed point determined by `local' covering estimates of the class, rather than by the gaussian averages. To that end, we establish new sharp upper and lower e…
A new MFG framework for evolving clusters from Gaussian mixtures.
problem Evolutionary clustering of time-dependent Gaussian mixtures.
method Control-theoretic framework based on Mean Field Games (MFG) with coupled HJB and Fokker-Planck systems.
result MFG dynamics recover classical EM algorithm trajectories with mass conservation.
Bayesian optimization with neural networks improves analog circuit synthesis efficiency.
problem Analog circuit synthesis optimization with improved efficiency.
method Bayesian optimization using neural networks to learn and predict circuit parameters.
result Neural-network-based Gaussian process model provides more accurate predictions and accelerates optimization.
Deep Gaussian Processes with polynomial kernels can collapse rapidly without proper hyperparameter tuning.
problem The collapse of Deep Gaussian Processes with polynomial kernels without careful hyperparameter tuning.
method Analysis using the Berry-Esseen Theorem and observation of prior behavior.
result The prior of a Deep Gaussian Process collapses rapidly towards zero or places negligible mass on low norm functions without proper hyperparameter tuning.
Regularization improves robustness of smoothed classifiers.
problem Certifying robustness of smoothed classifiers.
method Regularizing prediction consistency over Gaussian noise.
result Significantly improved certified robustness with less training costs.
This paper develops several average-case reduction techniques to show new hardness results for three central high-dimensional statistics problems, implying a statistical-computational gap induced by robustness, a detection-recovery gap and a universality principle for these gaps. A main feature of our approach is to ma…
Machine learning models accurately predict molecular magnetic anisotropy tensors.
problem Accurately modeling molecular magnetic anisotropy tensors.
method Gaussian-moment neural-network approach for machine learning.
result Achieved accuracy of 0.3--0.4 cm−1 for magnetic anisotropy tensor predictions. Calculates local Granger causality for Gaussian and nonlinear systems.
problem Understanding causal influence in complex systems.
method Vector autoregression and information-theoretic approach.
result Local Granger causality offers a robust and fast method for time-directed information transfer.
A fast and scalable method for variable selection in high-dimensional Gaussian processes.
problem Inefficient variable selection in high-dimensional Gaussian processes.
method Developed a fast and scalable variational inference algorithm for spike and slab Gaussian processes.
result Consistently outperforms vanilla and sparse variational GPs while retaining similar runtimes.
Decentralized Gaussian processes for multi-agent systems.
problem Scalable and flexible learning solutions for multi-agent systems.
method Asymptotically exact decentralized solution to Gaussian processes, with online Bayesian model averaging for hyperparameter selection.
result Asymptotically exact decentralized Gaussian process approximation and online Bayesian model averaging.
This article is concerned with Gaussian process quadratures, which are numerical integration methods based on Gaussian process regression methods, and sigma-point methods, which are used in advanced non-linear Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms. We show that many sigma-point methods can be interpreted as Gaussia…
The random matrix theory method of planar Gaussian diagrammatic expansion is applied to find the mean spectral density of the Hermitian equal-time and non-Hermitian time-lagged cross-covariance estimators, firstly in the form of master equations for the most general multivariate Gaussian system, secondly for seven part…
This note justifies approximations of arithmetic forwards using weighted averages of overnight forwards.
problem Theoretical justification for approximations of arithmetic forwards.
method Presentation of a central equation and computationally cheaper methods to approximate Fa. result Theoretical bounds and closed-form expressions for arithmetic factors in Gaussian HJM models.
Conditional diffusion models can approximate target distributions well with Gaussian-mixture reverse kernels.
problem Approximating target distributions in conditional diffusion models.
method Using finite Gaussian mixtures with ReLU-network logits as reverse kernels, reducing the problem to static conditional density approximation.
result The resulting neural reverse-kernel class is dense in conditional KL divergence under exact terminal matching.
A fast method for Lasso and Logistic Lasso problems.
problem Solving Lasso and Logistic Lasso regression problems efficiently.
method Iterative active set approach using solver updates.
result 31.41 times faster on average for compressed sensing.
The method to derive uniform bounds with Gaussian and Rademacher complexities is extended to the case where the sample average is replaced by a nonlinear statistic. Tight bounds are obtained for U-statistics, smoothened L-statistics and error functionals of l2-regularized algorithms.
We derive an explicit formula for likelihood function for Gaussian VARMA model conditioned on initial observables where the moving-average (MA) coefficients are scalar. For fixed MA coefficients the likelihood function is optimized in the autoregressive variables Φ's by a closed form formula generalizing regression c…
Paper proposes efficient data-driven confidence bands for distributed nonparametric regression.
problem High computational complexity in nonparametric regression for large datasets.
method Divide and conquer approach, averaging local estimates, with data-driven uncertainty quantification.
result Frequentist L2-confidence bands and minimax-optimal high-probability bounds for averaged estimator. We examine two different techniques for parameter averaging in GAN training. Moving Average (MA) computes the time-average of parameters, whereas Exponential Moving Average (EMA) computes an exponentially discounted sum. Whilst MA is known to lead to convergence in bilinear settings, we provide the -- to our knowledge …
This study uses local Gaussian correlation to analyze stock return tails, revealing more sensitive network properties.
problem Misleading results from Pearson correlation in financial networks.
method Local Gaussian correlation coefficient for capturing nonlinear dependence and heavy-tailed distributions.
result Local Gaussian correlation network among negative tails is more sensitive to stock market risks.
The Lasso performs well in ultra-sparse linear models with finite support size.
problem Performance analysis of Lasso in ultra-sparse linear models.
method Novel application of replica method from statistical physics, rigorous analysis of average case performance.
result Average performance of Lasso assessed without scaling assumptions, offering sample complexity bounds.
The paper develops time-uniform inference methods for stochastic approximation parameters.
problem Statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
method Analysis of averaged iterates convergence rates and construction of asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Valid asymptotic confidence sequences for parameters in stochastic approximation problems.
VISA improves inference efficiency for complex models.
problem Efficient approximate inference in computationally intensive models.
method Sequential sample-average approximations within a trust region.
result VISA achieves comparable accuracy with computational savings.
Smoothed SGD improves quantile estimation without crossing curves.
problem Estimating quantiles without crossing estimated curves.
method Smoothed SGD algorithm with Bahadur representation and Gaussian approximation.
result Smoothed SGD provides non-asymptotic tail probability bounds and a Gaussian approximation for quantile estimates.
SFSVI uses Gaussian mixtures to approximate neural network outputs for continual learning.
problem Learning new tasks without forgetting old ones in neural networks.
method Sequential function-space variational inference with Gaussian mixture approximation.
result Gaussian mixture SFSVI outperforms other methods in continual learning.