New method uses Gaussian ODE filtering to approximate likelihoods for fast ODE inverse problems.
problem Intractable forward models in likelihood-free inference, especially for ODEs.
method Gaussian ODE filtering to construct local Gaussian likelihood approximations.
result New solvers outperform standard likelihood-free approaches on benchmark systems.
A new Fourier model improves ODE prediction.
problem Improving the accuracy of ODE solutions, especially for periodic functions.
method Constructing a Fourier state space model and a hybrid model combining Taylor and Fourier methods.
result The hybrid model can predict ODE solutions more accurately, especially for periodic functions.
We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with non-linear measurement functions. This is achieved by defining the measurement sequence to consist of the observations of the difference between the derivative …
There is resurging interest, in statistics and machine learning, in solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that return probability measures instead of point estimates. Recently, Conrad et al. introduced a sampling-based class of methods that are 'well-calibrated' in a specific sense. But the computational c…
A recently-introduced class of probabilistic (uncertainty-aware) solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) applies Gaussian (Kalman) filtering to initial value problems. These methods model the true solution x and its first q derivatives \emph{a priori} as a Gauss--Markov process X, which is…
New method combines ODE filters and numerical quadrature to propagate model uncertainty.
problem Propagation of model uncertainty in ODE solutions with uncertain parameters.
method Combining ODE filters with numerical quadrature.
result Effective propagation of both numerical and parametric uncertainty.
Bayesian approach improves ODE solution accuracy.
problem Improving numerical solutions of ordinary differential equations.
method Bayesian inference with Gaussian filtering and smoothing.
result Maximum a posteriori estimate converges to true solution at polynomial rate.
Neural Jump ODEs improve online filtering and classification with robust performance.
problem Online filtering and classification in settings with irregular and partial observations.
method Modeling conditional expectation using Neural Jump ODEs, with theoretical convergence guarantees.
result Demonstrated superior performance over classical methods, especially in complex scenarios.
Neural Jump ODE improves continuous-time prediction and filtering of irregularly sampled time series.
problem Theoretical guarantees for continuous-time prediction and filtering of irregularly observed time series.
method Introducing Neural Jump ODE (NJ-ODE) that models conditional expectation between observations with neural ODEs and jumps.
result Theoretical guarantees for the L2-optimal prediction are provided, showing convergence of model output to optimal prediction. New method combines ODE solvers with Bayesian inference for efficient model training.
problem Combining ODE solvers with Bayesian inference for efficient model training.
method Probabilistic state space model using extended Kalman filter for joint inference from differential equations and data.
result Efficient approximate Bayesian inference on latent force and ODE solution.
Parallel-in-time solver reduces ODE simulation time from linear to logarithmic.
problem Efficiently solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with reduced computational cost.
method Formulated a parallel-in-time probabilistic numerical ODE solver using time-parallel formulation of iterated extended Kalman smoothers.
result Reduces span cost from linear to logarithmic in the number of time steps.
We propose and analyze a block coordinate descent proximal algorithm (BCD-prox) for simultaneous filtering and parameter estimation of ODE models. As we show on ODE systems with up to d=40 dimensions, as compared to state-of-the-art methods, BCD-prox exhibits increased robustness (to noise, parameter initialization, an…
Bayesian ODEs with Gaussian processes infer unknown dynamics from data.
problem Estimating unknown continuous-time system dynamics from data.
method Bayesian nonparametric model using Gaussian processes, sparse variational inference, probabilistic shooting.
result Posterior predictive uncertainty scores outperform alternative methods on multiple ODE learning tasks.
Probabilistic method combines space and time uncertainties in PDEs.
problem Separate treatment of space and time in PDE solvers obscures interactions and error quantification.
method Gaussian process interpretation of finite difference methods interacting with probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Joint quantification of space- and time-uncertainty possible without sacrificing ODE solver performance.
This paper develops an asymptotic expansion technique in momentum space for stochastic filtering. It is shown that Fourier transformation combined with a polynomial-function approximation of the nonlinear terms gives a closed recursive system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for the relevant conditional distri…
Paper improves neural ODEs for forecasting non-Markovian processes.
problem Forecasting irregularly observed time series with incomplete data.
method Path-dependent Neural Jump ODEs with signature transform.
result Path-dependent NJ-ODE outperforms original framework in non-Markovian data.
Bayesian Gaussian Process ODEs enhanced with normalizing flows for improved flexibility and accuracy.
problem Limitations of standard Gaussian Process ODEs in modeling complex scenarios.
method Introducing normalizing flows to reparameterize the ODE vector field, developing a data-driven variational learning algorithm.
result Improved accuracy and uncertainty estimates for Bayesian Gaussian Process ODEs.
Gradient matching with Gaussian processes is a promising tool for learning parameters of ordinary differential equations (ODE's). The essence of gradient matching is to model the prior over state variables as a Gaussian process which implies that the joint distribution given the ODE's and GP kernels is also Gaussian di…
This paper presents, evaluates, and discusses a new software tool to automatically build Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) from ordinary differential equations (ODEs) entered by the user. The DBNs generated from ODE models can handle both data uncertainty and model uncertainty in a principled manner. The application, na…
In conventional ODE modelling coefficients of an equation driving the system state forward in time are estimated. However, for many complex systems it is practically impossible to determine the equations or interactions governing the underlying dynamics. In these settings, parametric ODE model cannot be formulated. Her…
Paper introduces LODE-GPs for modeling data following linear ODEs.
problem Modeling data from systems of linear ODEs.
method Symbolic construction of LODE-GPs using Smith normal form algorithms.
result Improves GP modeling of data from systems of linear ODEs.
Developing stable and scalable probabilistic ODE solvers for stiff and high-dimensional problems.
problem Stiff and high-dimensional ODEs
method Matrix-free update step and iterative re-linearization
result Improved stability and scalability
Mathematical modeling with Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) has proven to be extremely successful in a variety of fields, including biology. However, these models are completely deterministic given a certain set of initial conditions. We convert mathematical ODE models of three benchmark biological systems to Dyn…
A new method for estimating uncertainties in neural ODEs without numerical integration.
problem Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainties in neural ODEs.
method Distributional Gradient Matching (DGM) algorithm that jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model.
result Significantly more accurate predictions compared to traditional methods.
The Kalman filter is extensively used for state estimation for linear systems under Gaussian noise. When non-Gaussian Lévy noise is present, the conventional Kalman filter may fail to be effective due to the fact that the non-Gaussian Lévy noise may have infinite variance. A modified Kalman filter for linear systems wi…
Like many numerical methods, solvers for initial value problems (IVPs) on ordinary differential equations estimate an analytically intractable quantity, using the results of tractable computations as inputs. This structure is closely connected to the notion of inference on latent variables in statistics. We describe a …
EFiGP uses Fourier and eigen-decomposition for efficient ODE parameter estimation.
problem Parameter estimation and trajectory reconstruction for noisy, sparse, nonlinear ODE systems.
method EFiGP integrates Fourier transformation and eigen-decomposition into a physics-informed Gaussian Process framework.
result EFiGP efficiently estimates ODE parameters and recovers trajectories from noisy data.
Bi-Lipschitz flows approximate a wide range of distributions.
problem Characterizing the expressivity of bi-Lipschitz normalizing flows.
method Linking score regularity to transport map bi-Lipschitzness via probability flow ODE.
result Gaussian pullbacks induced by bi-Lipschitz variance-preserving transport maps are L1-dense among all probability densities. Extends nonlinear filtering to predictable jump times.
problem Filtering with jumps in both signal and observation, especially when jump times are known.
method Derive Kushner-Stratonovich and Zakai equations for predictable discontinuities.
result Extends classical nonlinear filtering results to a setting with predictable discontinuities.
New sampling-based approach for filtering problems using multiplicative Gaussian functions.
problem Approximate inference in filtering problems.
method Approximates distribution with a weighted sum of continuous functions using sampling for multiplications.
result Preliminary experiments show potential of the new method compared to particle filters.
DALTON improves ODE parameter estimation by learning from noisy data.
problem High sensitivity to parameters in ODEs produces unreliable parameter estimates.
method Data-adaptive probabilistic likelihood approximation for ODEs.
result DALTON produces more accurate parameter estimates than existing methods.
Improved Kalman filter for non-linear, non-Gaussian data.
problem Estimating hidden variables with non-linear, non-Gaussian observations.
method Reproduces and extends Burkhart et al.'s discriminative Kalman filter.
result Enhanced filter performance for complex observation models.
This work preserves linear invariants in ensemble filters for non-Gaussian data assimilation.
problem Maintaining critical invariants like mass, stoichiometric balance, and charge in non-Gaussian data assimilation.
method Introducing a novel class of nonlinear ensemble filters using measure transport theory.
result Recovery of a constrained Kalman filter for Gaussian settings and combination with regularization techniques.
We present a general probabilistic perspective on Gaussian filtering and smoothing. This allows us to show that common approaches to Gaussian filtering/smoothing can be distinguished solely by their methods of computing/approximating the means and covariances of joint probabilities. This implies that novel filters and …
A new method for Gaussian filtering using gradient flows and Wasserstein metrics.
problem Approximating Gaussian and mixture-of-Gaussians filtering for complex systems.
method Variational approximation via gradient-flow representation on Wasserstein metric space.
result Competitive performance in posterior representation and parameter estimation for systems with multiplicative noise and multi-modal distributions.
In this manuscript we introduce numerical Gaussian process Kalman filtering (GPKF). Numerical Gaussian processes have recently been developed to simulate spatiotemporal models. The contribution of this paper is to embed numerical Gaussian processes into the recursive Kalman filter equations. This embedding enables us t…
Stochastic gradient descent converges to universal limits in high dimensions.
problem Statistical tasks in high dimensions with specific data projections.
method Stochastic gradient descent applied to mixture distributions, proving universality of limits.
result The ODE limits are universal for mixtures of arbitrary product distributions.
Recursive KalmanNet combines neural networks with Kalman filters for precise state estimation.
problem State estimation in systems with noisy measurements and non-Gaussian noise.
method Recursive KalmanNet uses a recurrent neural network to estimate states with consistent error covariance, optimizing for Gaussian negative log-likelihood.
result Recursive KalmanNet outperforms conventional Kalman filters and deep learning-based estimators in non-Gaussian noise conditions.
Filtering is a general name for inferring the states of a dynamical system given observations. The most common filtering approach is Gaussian Filtering (GF) where the distribution of the inferred states is a Gaussian whose mean is an affine function of the observations. There are two restrictions in this model: Gaussia…
Filtered conformal ellipsoids for graph-native time series
problem Joint prediction sets for multivariate time series
method Filtered conformal ellipsoids
result Sharper at-target ellipsoids than static-covariance and non-filter baselines
This work studies the problem of stochastic dynamic filtering and state propagation with complex beliefs. The main contribution is GP-SUM, a filtering algorithm tailored to dynamic systems and observation models expressed as Gaussian Processes (GP), and to states represented as a weighted sum of Gaussians. The key attr…
A new flow-based Bayesian filter tackles high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems.
problem Bayesian filtering for high-dimensional nonlinear systems is challenging due to non-Gaussian distributions and computational limitations.
method Integrates normalizing flows to construct a latent linear state-space model with efficient density estimation and sampling.
result Demonstrates superior accuracy and efficiency in numerical experiments.
Ens-CGP synthesizes ensemble-based inference with Gaussian processes.
problem Ensemble-based inference and Gaussian process modeling.
method Formulates Ens-CGP as a conditional Gaussian process for ensemble moments.
result Ens-CGP provides a unified probabilistic foundation for Kalman-type methods.
Transformers can solve complex filtering problems for non-Gaussian signals.
problem Non-linear and non-Markovian filtering problems for conditionally Gaussian signals.
method Continuous-time transformer models called filterformers.
result Filterformers can approximate the conditional law of non-Markovian and conditionally Gaussian signal processes.
New filters for non-linear systems achieve closed-form solutions.
problem Intractability of Bayesian filtering for non-linear systems.
method Gaussian PSD Models for efficient closed-form filtering.
result Closed-form filtering with strong theoretical guarantees and adaptive error.
Functional central limit theorem for kernel gradient flow and infinitesimal gradient boosting
problem Fluctuations of boosting processes around their deterministic limit
method Stochastic perturbation analysis of ODEs in Banach spaces
result Rescaled deviations converge to a Gaussian process
The paper is concerned with non-linear Gaussian filtering and smoothing in continuous-discrete state-space models, where the dynamic model is formulated as an Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE), and the measurements are obtained at discrete time instants. We propose novel Taylor moment expansion (TME) Gaussian …
Many sensors, such as range, sonar, radar, GPS and visual devices, produce measurements which are contaminated by outliers. This problem can be addressed by using fat-tailed sensor models, which account for the possibility of outliers. Unfortunately, all estimation algorithms belonging to the family of Gaussian filters…