Warped DLMs improve forecasting for count time series.
problem Limited options for modeling count time series data.
method Introduces a semiparametric methodology using warping of Gaussian DLMs.
result Demonstrates improved forecasting capabilities for count time series.
The paper improves sparse Gaussian processes by optimizing predictive loss.
problem Optimizing predictive loss in sparse Gaussian processes.
method Direct loss minimization (DLM) for log-loss and square loss, with product sampling (uPS) and biased Monte Carlo (bMC) for non-conjugate cases.
result DLM shows significant performance improvement in both log-loss and square loss cases.
DLM-One speeds up language generation by 500x with continuous models.
problem Efficiently generating text sequences in natural language processing.
method Score-distillation of continuous diffusion language models.
result Achieves up to 500x speedup in inference time with competitive performance.
Unified continuous diffusion model outperforms discrete alternatives in scalability and quality.
problem Continuous diffusion models were perceived as less scalable than discrete models.
method Reconstructed Plaid model and compared it with modern discrete DLMs, optimizing noise schedule and embeddings via likelihood.
result Unified continuous diffusion model (RePlaid) outperforms discrete models in compute efficiency and quality.
DLM for BNNs fails to improve over ELBO optimization.
problem Performance of DLM for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs).
method Direct Loss Minimization (DLM) compared to ELBO optimization.
result DLM does not significantly improve over ELBO optimization for BNNs.
Dynamic linear models improve travel time prediction for congested freeways.
problem Accurate travel time prediction for congested freeways.
method Dynamic linear models (DLMs) with time-varying parameters.
result Significant improvements in travel time prediction accuracy, especially for short-term predictions.
Learning new representations of input observations in machine learning is often tackled using a factorization of the data. For many such problems, including sparse coding and matrix completion, learning these factorizations can be difficult, in terms of efficiency and to guarantee that the solution is a global minimum.…
New RL algorithm GDPO improves DLM reasoning efficiency.
problem Adapting RL to DLMs for efficient, unbiased likelihood estimation.
method Group Diffusion Policy Optimization (GDPO) using semi-deterministic Monte Carlo.
result GDPO outperforms existing methods on math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.
Entropy-based decoding improves DLM sampling efficiency.
problem Decoding strategy challenges in flexible DLMs.
method Entropy sum-based confidence-based decoding.
result Entropy sum-based decoding achieves ε \varepsilon ε -accuracy with O ~ ( H ( X 0 ) / ε ) \widetilde O(H(X_0)/\varepsilon) O ( H ( X 0 ) / ε ) iterations. New method adapts DLMs to intrinsic data dependence without prior knowledge.
problem Understanding how unmasking schedules affect DLM generation quality.
method Adapts unmasking schedule to target data distribution's dependence structure.
result Sampling convergence guarantees improve for low-complexity distributions.
Fenrir efficiently estimates Bayesian MLN-DLMs for scalable inference.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian MLN-DLMs for longitudinal count compositional data.
method Novel algorithm for MAP estimation and accurate posterior marginal approximation.
result Fenrir can be three orders of magnitude more efficient than Stan.
Bayesian model improves asset price forecasting using realized volatility.
problem Improving asset price forecasting accuracy.
method Integrates dynamic gamma process with DLMs for price and realized volatility.
result Significant improvements in asset price forecasting compared to standard models.
Study forecasts stock returns on JSE using SGDLMs capturing cross-series dependencies.
problem Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series data.
method Simultaneous Graphical Dynamic Linear Models (SGDLMs) with customised DLMs and importance sampling/mean-field variational Bayes.
result SGDLMs accurately forecast stock data on JSE and respond to market changes.
Clustering in high-dimensional spaces is nowadays a recurrent problem in many scientific domains but remains a difficult task from both the clustering accuracy and the result understanding points of view. This paper presents a discriminative latent mixture (DLM) model which fits the data in a latent orthonormal discrim…
Improved text-to-image and multimodal understanding through adaptive generation order optimization.
problem Determining optimal generation sequences in text-to-image synthesis and multimodal understanding.
method Introduced a learnable control module trained via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to determine the generation order.
result Learning the control block substantially improves text-to-image alignment and multimodal understanding in DLMs.
Bayesian method tests Granger causality in functional time series.
problem Testing Granger causality between functional time series.
method Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLM) and Bayes Factor.
result Captures Granger causality between yield curves and weather conditions.
We develop VAE-DLM for dynamics with geometric flows in latent space.
problem Learning latent geometric properties for dynamics in high-dimensional data.
method Riemannian approaches to VAEs with a geometric flow in latent space, reformulating ELBO loss.
result Improved performance and robust learning for external dynamics, reducing OOD error.
Bayesian framework improves financial risk management and compliance.
problem Uncertainty in financial risk forecasting and compliance.
method Integrated Bayesian analytics framework for precise uncertainty quantification.
result Proposed DLM model produces more accurate VaR estimates compared to baseline models.
Gaussian processes model geospatial trajectories with uncertainty.
problem Interpolating and predicting complex spatiotemporal data.
method Gaussian process models trajectories as multidimensional Gaussian distributions.
result Gaussian processes provide a flexible and probabilistic way to interpolate geospatial data.
Independent component analysis (ICA) decomposes multivariate data into mutually independent components (ICs). The ICA model is subject to a constraint that at most one of these components is Gaussian, which is required for model identifiability. Linear non-Gaussian component analysis (LNGCA) generalizes the ICA model t…
New Gaussian min-max theorem extends classical results to non-i.i.d. Gaussian matrices.
problem Extending classical Gaussian min-max theorems to non-i.i.d. Gaussian matrices.
method Identifying a new pair of Gaussian processes that satisfy comparison inequalities.
result New Gaussian min-max and convex Gaussian min-max theorems with applications in multi-source Gaussian regression and binary classification.
GGMPs improve non-Gaussian conditional density estimation.
problem Multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity in conditional density estimation.
method GGMP combines local Gaussian mixture fitting, cross-input component alignment, and per-component heteroscedastic GP training.
result GGMPs improve distributional approximation on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Solves L p L_p L p -Gaussian chord Minkowski problem using Gauss curvature flow.
problem Solving the L p L_p L p -Gaussian chord Minkowski problem. method Using Gauss curvature flow to obtain smooth even solutions.
result Obtains smooth even solutions to the L p L_p L p -Gaussian chord Minkowski problem. New findings show Gaussian universality breaks down in high-dimensional linear factor mixtures.
problem The limitations of Gaussian universality in high-dimensional classification.
method Characterization of empirical risk minimization for classification under linear factor mixture models.
result Gaussian universality breaks down under high-dimensional linear factor mixtures.
Proposes efficient Gaussian approximations for non-Gaussian likelihoods.
problem Computational challenges in learning and inference with non-Gaussian likelihoods.
method Variational inference and moment matching in transformed bases.
result Good approximation quality for binary and multiclass classification.
Gaussian-SVGD dynamics converge to Gaussian distributions under certain conditions.
problem Understanding the theoretical properties of SVGD, especially for Gaussian targets.
method Detailed theoretical study of Gaussian-SVGD dynamics, considering both mean-field PDE and discrete particle systems.
result Gaussian-SVGD dynamics converge linearly to the Gaussian distribution closest to the target in KL divergence.
Sharp Gaussian isoperimetry proven along Ricci flow.
problem Proving sharp Gaussian isoperimetric inequality for Ricci flow.
method Using monotonicity formula to prove inequality.
result Exact Gaussian enlargement theorem and concentration estimates.
Gaussianization flows transform any random vector into a Gaussian, enabling efficient computation and sample generation.
problem Transforming any random vector into a Gaussian for efficient computation and sample generation.
method Iterative Gaussianization and normalizing flow model.
result Gaussianization flows are universal approximators and achieve better performance on tabular datasets.
Ens-CGP synthesizes ensemble-based inference with Gaussian processes.
problem Ensemble-based inference and Gaussian process modeling.
method Formulates Ens-CGP as a conditional Gaussian process for ensemble moments.
result Ens-CGP provides a unified probabilistic foundation for Kalman-type methods.
Geometric Gaussian approximations capture any distribution.
problem Approximating complex probability distributions.
method Geometric Gaussian approximations through diffeomorphisms or exponential maps.
result Geometric Gaussian approximations are universal, capturing any distribution.
Gaussian processes struggle with compositional functions, but deep Gaussian processes can outperform.
problem Gaussian process regression struggles with compositional functions.
method We study information-theoretic lower bounds for posterior contraction rates in Gaussian process regression for a continuous regression model.
result Posterior based on any mean-zero Gaussian process can only recover the truth at a rate strictly slower than the minimax rate for generalized additive functions.
New sparse Gaussian process method tackles unconstrained regression problems.
problem Dealing with physical systems that satisfy inequality constraints.
method Extends constrained Gaussian process by redefining hat basis functions.
result Reduces computational complexity from O ( n 3 ) O(n^{3}) O ( n 3 ) to O ( n m 2 ) O(nm^{2}) O ( n m 2 ) . Wide deep neural networks with Gaussian weights approximate Gaussian processes closely.
problem Understanding the approximation of deep neural networks with Gaussian weights to Gaussian processes.
method Established novel rates for the Gaussian approximation of random deep neural networks with Gaussian parameters and Lipschitz activation functions in the wide limit.
result The distance between the network output and the Gaussian approximation scales inversely with the width of the network.
This paper proposes a method to approximate non-Gaussian likelihoods in Gaussian Processes.
problem Approximating non-Gaussian likelihoods in Gaussian Processes.
method Proposes a piece-wise constant approximation for the inverse-link function.
result Yields a closed form solution for the SVGP lower bound.
The Kalman filter is extensively used for state estimation for linear systems under Gaussian noise. When non-Gaussian Lévy noise is present, the conventional Kalman filter may fail to be effective due to the fact that the non-Gaussian Lévy noise may have infinite variance. A modified Kalman filter for linear systems wi…
Develops a Gaussian model to compute the Alexander polynomial of knots.
problem Computing the Alexander polynomial of knots.
method Uses perturbed Gaussian functions, Heisenberg algebra, and tensor-contraction formalism.
result Associates a Gaussian function to a knot whose partition function recovers the Alexander polynomial.
New Stein identity for q-Gaussians reduces gradient variance in machine learning.
problem Improving gradient estimators for non-Gaussian distributions.
method Deriving a new Stein identity for bounded-support q-Gaussians and simplifying previous results.
result Gradient estimators for q-Gaussians have nearly identical forms to Gaussian ones, reducing variance.
Gaussian processes are used in machine learning to learn input-output mappings from observed data. Gaussian process regression is based on imposing a Gaussian process prior on the unknown regressor function and statistically conditioning it on the observed data. In system identification, Gaussian processes are used to …
Bayesian inverse problems solved with Gaussian models for PDEs.
problem Solving inverse problems with limited data for PDEs.
method Constructing PDE-informed Gaussian priors for Bayesian inversion.
result PDE-informed Gaussian priors outperform traditional priors.
Bounds neural network output distribution to Gaussian for random initialization.
problem Quantifying the distribution of randomly initialized deep neural networks.
method Quantitative Gaussian approximation using quadratic Wasserstein distance.
result Explicit inequalities show how network sizes affect Gaussian behavior.
This note explains when neural networks can be seen as Gaussian processes.
problem Understanding the relationship between neural networks and Gaussian processes.
method Formulating a Gaussian process regression based on neural network outputs and analyzing the resulting posterior mean functions.
result The posterior mean functions of neural networks follow a Gaussian process in certain cases, providing an interpretation of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
A new method combines Gaussian graphical models for better distributed Gaussian process predictions.
problem Poor results from traditional DGP due to violated conditional independence assumption.
method Proposes using Gaussian graphical models to aggregate local predictions from subsets of data.
result Our method outperforms other state-of-the-art DGP approaches on both synthetic and real datasets.
Theoretical analysis of entropy approximation for Gaussian mixtures.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for entropy approximation of Gaussian mixtures.
method Theoretical analysis of the error between true and approximate entropy.
result The error converges to zero as the ratios of means to variances tend to infinity, providing a guarantee for high-dimensional problems.
Improved VB algorithm for NIG mixtures outperforms Gaussian mixtures for non-Gaussian data.
problem Clustering non-Gaussian data, especially heavy-tailed and asymmetric.
method Proposed an improved VB algorithm for NIG mixture models and extended Dirichlet process mixture models.
result Outperforms Gaussian mixtures and existing NIG mixture models, especially for highly non-normative data.
Graph Gaussian processes use Matérn models for better function learning.
problem Lack of Gaussian process models for graph input spaces.
method Stochastic partial differential equation characterization of Matérn Gaussian processes.
result Graph Matérn Gaussian processes inherit properties of Euclidean and Riemannian models and can be trained efficiently.
This note proves a Gaussian version of a Pólya-Szegö conjecture using rearrangement techniques.
problem Finding the domain with the minimum Gaussian principal frequency when the Gaussian torsional rigidity is fixed.
method Adapted Kohler-Jobin rearrangement technique to the Gauss space, considering a modified torsional rigidity and rearranging layers to half-spaces.
result The Gaussian principal frequency is minimized for the half-space when the Gaussian torsional rigidity is fixed.
Study of Gaussian distributions using entropic Gromov-Wasserstein and inner product Gromov-Wasserstein.
problem Optimal transportation between Gaussian distributions with different dimensions.
method Entropic Gromov-Wasserstein and inner product Gromov-Wasserstein, with closed-form expressions and von Neumann's trace inequality.
result Closed-form expressions for the entropic IGW and its unbalanced variant between Gaussian distributions.
GAGA accelerates 3D molecular generation by replacing long trajectories with Gaussian approximations.
problem High computational cost of long generative trajectories in 3D molecular generation.
method GAGA identifies a characteristic step where molecular data becomes sufficiently Gaussian, replacing the trajectory with a Gaussian approximation.
result Significant improvement in both generation quality and computational efficiency.