A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We analyze the Gambler's problem, finding a complex, fractal value function.
This note explores the mathematical theory to solve modern gamblers ruin problems. We establish a ruin framework and solve for the probability of bankruptcy. We also show how this relates to the expected time to bankruptcy and review the risk neutral probabilities associated an adjustment to asymmetrical views.
Optimal exit strategies of CPT gamblers in unfair gambles
Chances of a gambler are always lower than chances of a casino in the case of an ideal, mathematically perfect roulette, if the capital of the gambler is limited and the minimum and maximum allowed bets are limited by the casino. However, a realistic roulette is not ideal: the probabilities of realisation of different …
I derive practical formulas for optimal arrangements between sophisticated stock market investors (namely, continuous-time Kelly gamblers or, more generally, CRRA investors) and the brokers who lend them cash for leveraged bets on a high Sharpe asset (i.e. the market portfolio). Rather than, say, the broker posting a m…
Develops a model for gambling decisions under time inconsistency.
In a multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem a gambler needs to choose at each round of play one of K arms, each characterized by an unknown reward distribution. Reward realizations are only observed when an arm is selected, and the gambler's objective is to maximize his cumulative expected earnings over some given horizon of…
Gamblers lose in long bets despite casino claims, study shows.
We introduce a general framework for continuous-time betting markets, in which a bookmaker can dynamically control the prices of bets on outcomes of random events. In turn, the prices set by the bookmaker affect the rate or intensity of bets placed by gamblers. The bookmaker seeks a price process that maximizes his exp…
The purpose of this article is to propose a new "theory," the Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets (SAFM) theory, that explains the operation of financial markets using the analytical perspective of an enlightened gambler. The gambler understands that all opportunities for superior performance arise from suboptimal …
I unravel the basic long run dynamics of the broker call money market, which is the pile of cash that funds margin loans to retail clients (read: continuous time Kelly gamblers). Call money is assumed to supply itself perfectly inelastically, and to continuously reinvest all principal and interest. I show that the rela…
New loss function helps models avoid noisy labels, improving robustness.
This work shows how evaluation metrics can be seen as fair gambles.
ETHGamDet detects crypto gambling contracts and addresses.
Study analyzes gambling behavior and risk attitudes using blockchain data.
Kelly's Criterion is well known among gamblers and investors as a method for maximizing the returns one would expect to observe over long periods of betting or investing. These ideas are conspicuously absent from portfolio optimization problems in the financial and automation literature. This paper will show how Kelly'…
A quantum memory model for Kelly betting with amplified or attenuated outcomes.
We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit arbitrary patterns of deviations of nature's moves from independent Bernoulli trial…
We deal with the \textit{selective classification} problem (supervised-learning problem with a rejection option), where we want to achieve the best performance at a certain level of coverage of the data. We transform the original -class classification problem to -class where the -th class represents th…
The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a classic example of the exploration-exploitation dilemma. It is concerned with maximising the total rewards for a gambler by sequentially pulling an arm from a multi-armed slot machine where each arm is associated with a reward distribution. In static MABs, the reward distributi…
Study on blackjack reinforcement learning performance with varying deck sizes.
This paper supplies two possible resolutions of Fortune's (2000) margin-loan pricing puzzle. Fortune (2000) noted that the margin loan interest rates charged by stock brokers are very high in relation to the actual (low) credit risk and the cost of funds. If we live in the Black-Scholes world, the brokers are presumabl…
Sequential tests for two-sample and independence testing using betting strategies.
In this paper, which is the third installment of the author's trilogy on margin loan pricing, we analyze monthly observations of the U.S. broker call money rate, which is the interest rate at which stock brokers can borrow to fund their margin loans to retail clients. We describe the basic features and mean-rev…
We survey the status of some decision problems for 3-manifolds and their fundamental groups. This includes the classical decision problems for finitely presented groups (Word Problem, Conjugacy Problem, Isomorphism Problem), and also the Homeomorphism Problem for 3-manifolds and the Membership Problem for 3-manifold gr…
Optimal transport reformulates multiple quantile hedging problem.
Solves four problems related to circle families in the plane.
Solves four problems related to sphere families in 3D space.
The paper solves optimal control problems for various convex sets using convex trigonometry.
This paper is a tutorial for eigenvalue and generalized eigenvalue problems. We first introduce eigenvalue problem, eigen-decomposition (spectral decomposition), and generalized eigenvalue problem. Then, we mention the optimization problems which yield to the eigenvalue and generalized eigenvalue problems. We also prov…
This paper solves the Christoffel problem in hyperbolic space and its equivalent on spheres.
In the present paper, the primal-dual problem consisting of the investment risk minimization problem and the expected return maximization problem in the mean-variance model is discussed using replica analysis. As a natural extension of the investment risk minimization problem under only a budget constraint that we anal…
Study proves only origin-centered spheres solve certain curvature problems.
MathChat uses LLM agents to solve challenging math problems through conversational problem-solving.
The paper solves a generalized Christoffel-Minkowski problem using a curvature flow.
Paper solves Gromov-Wasserstein for point clouds efficiently.
The paper explains how microlocal analysis solves geometric inverse problems.
Proves NP and co-NP status for knot core recognition in solid torus.
The min-max problem, also known as the saddle point problem, is a class of optimization problems which minimizes and maximizes two subsets of variables simultaneously. This class of problems can be used to formulate a wide range of signal processing and communication (SPCOM) problems. Despite its popularity, most exist…
A new method solves complex control problems with random coefficients.
This is a survey of some problems in geometric group theory which I find interesting. The problems are from different areas of group theory. Each section is devoted to problems in one area. It contains an introduction where I give some necessary definitions and motivations, problems and some discussions of them. For ea…
We present updates to the problems on Hirzebruch's 1954 problem list focussing on open problems, and on those where substantial progress has been made in recent years. We discuss some purely topological problems, as well as geometric problems about (almost) complex structures, both algebraic and non-algebraic, about co…
New method solves generalized Minkowski problem for torsional rigidity.
We present 27 problems encountered in automating the translation of movie/TV show subtitles. We categorize each problem in one of the three categories viz. problems directly related to textual translation, problems related to subtitle creation guidelines, and problems due to adaptability of machine translation (MT) eng…
Solves Brezis' first open problem on ball solutions.
Classical knot recognition problem solved in NP with exponential time algorithm.
Ranking problems, also known as preference learning problems, define a widely spread class of statistical learning problems with many applications, including fraud detection, document ranking, medicine, credit risk screening, image ranking or media memorability. In this article, we systematically review different types…
Paper solves four problems of pseudo-circle envelopes in Minkowski plane.