A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The study examines cross-border lending behavior from G7 countries, showing changes in driving factors after the 2008 financial crisis.
The paper analyzes trade dynamics among G7 countries, revealing unequal exchange and degenerate equilibrium states.
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1…
This paper analyzes the process of long-run co-movements and stock market globalization on the basis of cointegration tests and vector error correction (VEC) models. The cointegration tests used here allow for structural breaks to be explicitly modeled and breakpoints to be computed on a relative-time basis. The data u…
LLM generates coherent macroeconomic stress scenarios for portfolio risk assessment.
We collect and analyze the data for working time, life expectancy, and the pair output and infrastructure of industrializing nations. During S-functional recovery from disaster the pair's time shifts yield 25 years for the infrastructure's physical lifetime. At G7 level the per capita outputs converge and the time shif…
We show that time-dependent fluctuations in foreign exchange rates are accurately described by a random walk in a complex plane that is demarcated into the gain (+) and loss (-) sectors. is the outcome of random steps from the origin and is the square of the Euclidean distance of the final …
The easy access to large data sets has allowed for leveraging methodology in network physics and complexity science to disentangle patterns and processes directly from the data, leading to key insights in the behavior of systems. Here we use to country specific food production data to study binary and weighted topologi…
Countries tend to diversify their exports by entering products that are related to their current exports. Yet this average behavior is not representative of every diversification path. In this paper, we introduce a method to identify periods when countries enter unrelated products. We analyze the economic diversificati…
Using data from a sample of 28 representatives countries, we propose a classification of currency crises consequences based on the ultrametric analysis of the real exchange rate movements time series, without any further assumption. By using the matrix of synchronous linear correlation coefficients and the appropriate …
Inside the EU, the commercial integration of the CEE countries has gained remarkable momentum before the crisis appearance, but it has slightly slowed down afterwards. Consequently, the interest in identifying the factors supporting the commercial integration process is high. Recent findings in the new trade theory sug…
Various works have already showed that common shocks and cross-country financial linkages caused the banking systems of several countries to be highly interconnected with the result that during bad times, banking crises may arise simultaneously in different countries. Our aim is to provide further evidence on the topic…
We consider the sectoral composition of a country's GDP, i.e. the partitioning into agrarian, industrial, and service sectors. Exploring a simple system of differential equations we characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the sectors in the course of economic development. The model fits for the majority of coun…
Prediction is one of the major challenges in complex systems. The prediction methods have shown to be effective predictors of the evolution of networks. These methods can help policy makers to solve practical problems successfully and make better strategy for the future. In this work, we focus on exporting countries' d…
We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade imbalances of the European countries. These measures are the network (or indire…
Investigates how FDI and R&D affect host countries' growth.
Using open source data, we observe the fascinating dynamics of nighttime light. Following a global economic regime shift, the planetary center of light can be seen moving eastwards at a pace of about 60 km per year. Introducing spatial light Gini coefficients, we find a universal pattern of human settlements across dif…
New interpretation reconciles country and product complexity.
Using the new data from the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities we construct the Google matrix of this directed network and perform its detailed analysis. The network contains 58 countries and 37 activity sectors for years 1995 and 2008. The construction of , based on Markov chain transitions, treats a…
Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. By combining tools from network science and econometrics, a robust and stable relationship between a country's productive structure and its economic growth has been established. Here we report that not only …
The transition of several East and Central European countries and the countries of the Former Soviet Union from the socialist economic system to the capitalist one is studied. A recently developed microeconomic model for the personal income distribution and its evolution and a simple functional relationship between the…
We introduce Bayesian Poisson Tucker decomposition (BPTD) for modeling country--country interaction event data. These data consist of interaction events of the form "country took action toward country at time ." BPTD discovers overlapping country--community memberships, including the number of latent com…
Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent 'economic complexity' research suggests. A country's product diversity reflects its diversity of knowhow or 'capabilities'. Researchers propo…
This research deals with the mathematical modeling of the physical capital diffusion through the borders of the countries. The physical capital is considered an important variable for the economic growth of a country. Here we use an extension of the economic Solow model to describe how the smuggling affects the economi…
Global catastrophe risk pools increase financial resilience by diversifying risk and including more countries.
Using the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database [http://comtrade.un.org/db/] we construct the Google matrix of the world trade network and analyze its properties for various trade commodities for all countries and all available years from 1962 to 2009. The trade flows on this network are classified with th…
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.
Climate volatility reduces economic growth, especially in poorer countries.
We apply the recently developed reduced Google matrix algorithm for the analysis of the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities. This approach allows to determine interdependences and interactions of economy sectors of several countries, including China, Russia and USA, properly taking into account the influence …
Geoeconomic analysis of venture capital portfolios reveals key emerging tech domains and countries.
DEPLOYERS models multi-country economic systems using ABM.
The highly detailed international trade data among all countries in the world during 1971-2000 shows that the kinds of export goods and the logarithmic GDP (gross domestic production) of a country has an S-shaped relationship. This indicates all countries can be divided into three stages accordingly. First, the poor co…
Study analyzes GDP growth of CEE countries using time-varying coefficients.
Model predicts majority of countries will prefer BRI over USD by 2020.
The weighted and directed network of countries based on the number of overseas banks is analyzed in terms of its fragility to the banking crisis of one country. We use two different models to describe transmission of shocks, one local and the other global. Depending on the original source of the crisis, the overall siz…
In order to investigate whether government regulations against corruption can affect the economic growth of a country, we analyze the dependence between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rates and changes in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). For the period 1999-2004 on average for all countries in th…
Collectivistic countries influence Bitcoin returns more than individualistic ones during the pandemic.
Study finds no consistent return predictability using payout ratios across 16 countries.
Much of the analysis of economic growth has focused on the study of aggregate output. Here, we deviate from this tradition and look instead at the structure of output embodied in the network connecting countries to the products that they export.We characterize this network using four structural features: the negative r…
This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries and countries all follow Laplace distributions. In this work, we test whether als…
Few attempts have been proposed in order to describe the statistical features and historical evolution of the export bipartite matrix countries/products. An important standpoint is the introduction of a products network, namely a hierarchical forest of products that models the formation and the evolution of commodities…
Using the new data from the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities we construct the Google matrix of this directed network and perform its detailed analysis. The network contains 58 countries and 37 activity sectors for years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2009. The construction of , based on Markov chain transi…
Model shows worldwide trade crises can be localized or global, depending on trade balance.
We introduce an algorithm able to reconstruct the relevant network structure on which the time evolution of country-product bipartite networks takes place. The significant links are obtained by selecting the largest values of the projected matrix. We first perform a number of tests of this filtering procedure on synthe…
Innovation is among the key factors driving a country's economic and social growth. But what are the factors that make a country innovative? How do they differ across different parts of the world and different stages of development? In this work done in collaboration with the World Economic Forum (WEF), we analyze the …
Analyzing available FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years, we observe an increase of complexity in the international trade of maize, rice, soy, and wheat. A larger number of countries play a role as producers or intermediaries, either for trade or food processing. In consequence, we find that the trade networks bec…
This paper investigates and compares currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies difference between currency substitution and money demand sensitivity to exchange rate variatio…
Study models risks for low-carbon economy in Balkan countries, focusing on shadow economy and populism.