New partial models correct for confounding effects in reinforcement learning.
problem Confounding effects in partial models lead to incorrect planning.
method Introduces causally correct partial models for reinforcement learning.
result Causally correct partial models avoid confounding effects and improve planning accuracy.
The paper explains why futures prices often differ from spot prices in grain markets.
problem Non-convergence of futures and spot prices in grains markets.
method Incorporates stochastic spot price and storage cost, solves an optimal double stopping problem.
result Explicit no-arbitrage prices for shipping certificates and futures contracts are derived.
New method for off-policy evaluation in POMDPs using future-dependent value functions.
problem Curse of horizon in off-policy evaluation for POMDPs.
method Develops future-dependent value functions and minimax learning method.
result PAC result and Bellman completeness for the proposed OPE estimator.
This work analyzes the value of future reward information in RL.
problem Analyzing the impact of knowing future rewards in reinforcement learning.
method Competitive analysis and worst-case reward distribution.
result Exact ratios between standard RL agents and those with future-reward lookahead.
Study on future-dependent value functions for off-policy evaluation in complex environments.
problem Exponential dependence on horizon in off-policy evaluation for complex observations.
method Developed novel coverage assumptions for POMDPs to achieve polynomial bounds.
result Achieved polynomial bounds on previously exponential quantities, improving off-policy evaluation.
PSDs improve RNN performance by predicting future observations.
problem Modeling dynamic processes with unknown latent states.
method Augmenting RNNs with Predictive-State Decoders (PSDs) that target predicting future observations.
result PSDs improve statistical performance of state-of-the-art RNNs with fewer iterations and less data.
This research develops approximation theory for OOMs of infinite-dimensional processes.
problem Developing an approximation theory for OOMs of infinite-dimensional processes.
method Establishing an inner product structure and proving continuity of observable operators.
result A fundamental obstacle in making an infinite-dimensional space of future distributions into a Hilbert space is described.
Study reveals stylized facts in German bond futures markets.
problem Understanding market dynamics in German bond futures.
method Analyzed tick-by-tick data of four German bond futures contracts.
result Uncovered commonalities and unique characteristics across different futures.
Investor optimizes stock investments with noisy future price signals.
problem Optimizing stock investments with uncertain future stock prices.
method Dynamic investment strategy with partial observation of Brownian motion.
result Closed-form solution for optimal investment problem.
Study examines lead-lag relationships between VIX and VIX futures markets over time.
problem Understanding dynamic interaction patterns between VIX and VIX futures markets.
method Utilized the symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method to analyze time-dependent lead-lag relationships.
result Observed alternate lead-lag relationship instead of dominance between VIX and VIX futures markets.
Dynamical-VAE learns causal dynamics from POMDPs using future information.
problem Learning accurate state representations from partial observations in POMDPs.
method Dynamical Variational Auto-Encoder (DVAE) with hindsight framework.
result DVAE uncovers causal graph more effectively than history-based methods.
The paper models natural gas futures prices and volatility, using Monte Carlo and reinforcement learning.
problem Hedging and selecting delivery strategies in natural gas markets.
method Dynamical model for futures prices, least-square Monte Carlo simulation, reinforcement learning.
result Calibrated futures price quotes and implied volatility smiles for different delivery periods.
We develop a new method to price SOFR futures contracts considering convexity, skew, and smile.
problem Analyzing and pricing SOFR futures contracts with convexity, skew, and smile adjustments.
method A perturbative formalism based on a time-ordered exponential series to solve the backward-Kolmogorov diffusion PDE.
result An analytic pricing formula for SOFR futures contracts that incorporates convexity, skew, and smile adjustments.
The paper examines mass aspects at future null infinity and limits of quasilocal mass.
problem Understanding mass aspects and limits of quasilocal mass at future null infinity.
method Review and extension of Bondi mass and mass loss formula in Bondi-Sachs coordinate system.
result New results about the limit of quasilocal mass of unit spheres at null infinity.
Proposes a graph neural network for futures price prediction.
problem Challenges in high-frequency trading of futures prices.
method Heterogeneous Continual Graph Neural Network (STGNN) integrating multi-factor pricing theories.
result Outperforms other models in prediction accuracy on 49 commodity futures.
Accurate volatility modelling is paramount for optimal risk management practices. One stylized feature of financial volatility that impacts the modelling process is long memory explored in this paper for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for high frequency intraday UK futures. Volatility …
NeuTSFlow models continuous functions behind time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting treats time series as discrete sequences, ignoring their continuous nature.
method NeuTSFlow uses Neural Operators to learn the transition between historical and future function families.
result NeuTSFlow outperforms traditional methods in forecasting accuracy and robustness.
The paper synthesizes the mathematics of modeling the future.
problem Modeling the future
method Unified mathematical synthesis
result Explicit connection of classical objects into a unified forecasting calculus
Paper compares ETF and futures carry rates in segmented Bitcoin markets.
problem Limitations in cross-margining between spot Bitcoin and CME futures.
method Estimates carry rates from IBIT options and CME futures, uses put-call parity and daily ETF holdings.
result Mean and median wedge in carry rates is 2.58 and 2.52 percent, respectively.
Investors' models of future returns are uncertain and interrelated.
problem Uncertainty in investors' models of future returns.
method Demonstrates reducing uncertainty by incorporating relations among competing models.
result Uncertainty in investors' models of future returns can be reduced.
A correct description of the past and the future event horizons for timelike geodesics in de Sitter space-time of the first kind is given.
Hierarchical graph learning for calendar spread strategies in commodity futures markets
problem Developing machine-learning methods for calendar spread strategies in commodity futures markets
method Proposing a hierarchical graph learning approach
result Outperforming benchmark models in both prediction and trading performance
EnKBS smoothes complex systems with future observations for causal inference.
problem Improving state estimation in complex systems with rapid dynamics.
method Continuous-time ensemble Kalman-Bucy smoother for nonlinear dynamical systems.
result EnKBS provides derivative-free framework with high skill in various scientific problems.
ASAC uses actor-critic models to optimize observation selection in medical settings.
problem Optimizing observation selection in costly sequential observation scenarios.
method ASAC framework with selector and predictor networks, using actor-critic models for training.
result ASAC significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in real-world medical datasets.
We consider the Brownian market model and the problem of expected utility maximization of terminal wealth. We, specifically, examine the problem of maximizing the utility of terminal wealth under the presence of transaction costs of a fund/agent investing in futures markets. We offer some preliminary remarks about stat…
New framework predicts diverse, contextually plausible 3D human motions.
problem Predicting multiple plausible future 3D poses given observed poses.
method Developed a new variational framework that conditions latent variable on past observation to encourage relevant information.
result Our approach generates motions of higher quality and preserves contextual information.
Parity calibration aims to predict increase-decrease events, not values.
problem Forecasting future increase-decrease events rather than exact values.
method Online binary calibration method to achieve parity calibration.
result Online binary calibration achieves parity calibration effectively.
This work introduces a polynomial kernel method for inferring ODE models.
problem Estimating future behavior of dynamical systems from observations.
method Parametric polynomial kernel regression using Backpropagation and Stochastic Gradient Descent.
result Successfully tracks future behavior of chaotic dynamical systems over long time periods.
AR model forecasts partially observed dynamical time series by estimating evolution function and imputing missing variables.
problem Forecasting dynamical time series with missing variables.
method Autoregressive with slack time series (ARS) model.
result ARS model forecasts future time series with time-invariant and linear assumptions.
EBLR improves time series forecasting with interpretable results.
problem Forecasting future events to reduce uncertainty.
method Iterative method starting with a base model, adding regression trees to explain errors at each iteration.
result EBLR substantially improves base model performance through extracted features and provides comparable performance to other methods.
Machine learning reveals inventory effects on VSTOXX futures pricing.
problem Understanding how inventory affects VSTOXX futures pricing.
method Combining stochastic processes and machine learning, we formulate and calibrate a Heston model for VSTOXX futures pricing.
result Machine learning models show that inventory significantly impacts VSTOXX futures prices.
Study fits BTC future returns from inverse options using logistic distribution.
problem Modeling future price distribution of Bitcoin.
method Fits empirical BTC future returns with logistic distribution using inverse options prices.
result BTC future returns can be described with a logistic distribution, but not stochastically.
The `observer space' of a Lorentzian spacetime is the space of future-timelike unit tangent vectors. Using Cartan geometry, we first study the structure a given spacetime induces on its observer space, then use this to define abstract observer space geometries for which no underlying spacetime is assumed. We propose ta…
A new method predicts future paths using a Monte-Carlo approach.
problem Predicting future financial paths given historical data.
method Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method using maximum entropy model.
result Yields state-of-the-art predictions for future volatility and option smiles.
Graph neural controlled differential equations learn graph dynamics from vertex observations.
problem Predicting future states of dynamical systems on graphs with limited vertex data.
method Incorporates graph topology information into NCDE to predict graph dynamics.
result Informed NCDE requires fewer parameters and lower MAE compared to previous methods.
We extend a recent synchronization analysis of exact finite-state sources to nonexact sources for which synchronization occurs only asymptotically. Although the proof methods are quite different, the primary results remain the same. We find that an observer's average uncertainty in the source state vanishes exponential…
Model simulates Perpetual Futures market with agent behavior.
problem Reproduce Perpetual Futures market dynamics.
method Agent-based model with heterogeneous agents trading via a central limit order book.
result Simulation accurately reproduces Perpetual Futures price pegging to Spot price.
Improved online classification with accurate predictions.
problem Online classification challenges with limited data.
method Designing an online learner that uses predictions to reduce regret.
result Expected regret is better than worst-case analysis, especially with accurate predictions.
CE improves climate uncertainty quantification using GCM ensembles and observational data.
problem Uncertainty in climate projections due to model inadequacies and variability.
method Conformal ensembles integrating GCM ensembles and observational data.
result CE generates statistically rigorous, easy-to-interpret uncertainty estimates.
Autoencoder learns group representations from actions, improving future prediction accuracy.
problem Learning internal models of interactions with the real world.
method Homomorphism autoencoder with group representation trained on equivariance-derived loss.
result Agents can predict future actions with improved accuracy.
Forecast future volatilities and correlations based on current trends.
problem Predict future volatilities and correlations in financial markets.
method Use cubic and quadratic polynomials of current trend strengths.
result Accurate quantification of trend effects on volatilities and correlations.
Through computer enumeration with the aid of topological results, we catalogue all 18 closed non-orientable P^2-irreducible 3-manifolds that can be formed from at most eight tetrahedra. In addition we give an overview as to how the 100 resulting minimal triangulations are constructed. Observations and conjectures are d…
Neural model predicts object states and physical parameters from visual observations.
problem Computational models struggle with physical reasoning and adapting to new environments.
method Visual prior predicts particle-based system from visual observations; inference module refines estimates subject to dynamics constraints.
result Model can infer physical properties within a few observations and adapt to unseen scenarios.
Proposes a new pedestrian prediction model using urban data.
problem Predicting future pedestrian behavior for safer autonomous vehicle navigation.
method Growing Hidden Markov Model (GHMM) extension using cost maps and Natural Vision principles.
result Predicts pedestrian positions more accurately over a longer horizon.
Proposes a model for time-varying regression coefficients.
problem Uncertainty in forecasting due to changing correlations over time.
method Adopting state space literature, models how regression coefficients change over time.
result Accurate estimates for continuous outcomes but fails for binary outcomes.
A new RNN architecture GVFN improves RNN trainability by constraining states to future predictions.
problem Improving RNN trainability in complex environments.
method Developed a novel RNN architecture called General Value Function Network (GVFN) that constrains states to future predictions.
result GVFNs are more robust to truncation levels, requiring only one-step gradient updates.
Neurons predict future scalar inputs by learning top modes of lag vectors.
problem Predicting future scalar inputs with physiological delays.
method Normal Mode Decomposition to extract independently evolving modes.
result Temporal filters of neurons correspond to left eigenvectors of a generalized eigenvalue problem.
New model shows VIX futures are more expensive than local volatility model suggests.
problem VIX futures pricing under local volatility model is incorrect.
method Developed a continuous stochastic volatility model to show VIX futures are more expensive than local volatility model.
result Inversion of convex ordering between local and stochastic variances observed in SPX market for short maturities.