This paper develops a semi-closed form formula for pricing variance swaps with stochastic volatility and interest rate correlation.
problem Pricing variance swaps with stochastic volatility and interest rate correlation under full correlation structure.
method Developed an efficient semi-closed form pricing formula for variance swaps using characteristic functions.
result The correlation between the underlying and interest rate significantly impacts the pricing of variance swaps.
New metrics defined for full-rank correlation matrices, ensuring unique operations.
problem No suitable problem statement as the abstract does not describe a problem to be solved.
method New Riemannian metrics defined on full-rank correlation matrices, providing unique operations.
result Unique Riemannian logarithm and Fréchet mean defined for full-rank correlation matrices.
Study finds u-plane integral equals full correlator at strong coupling and matches Donaldson invariants.
problem Understanding u-plane integral contributions in N=2 gauge theories.
method Used mock modular forms and Appell-Lerch sums to efficiently determine u-plane correlators.
result u-plane correlators match Donaldson invariants and are entire functions of fugacities.
Spectral denoising recovers meaningful network structure from noisy financial correlations.
problem Noise in empirical correlation matrices from financial returns obscures genuine interactions.
method Spectral decomposition to separate structured and random components.
result Structured networks derived from 10-16 eigenmodes exhibit stronger core-periphery organization and scale-free degree distributions.
Simplifies large action space bandits by selecting representative actions.
problem Efficiently managing large action spaces with correlated outcomes.
method Random sampling and solving of bandit instances to identify representative actions.
result The algorithm selects a smaller set of representative actions that perform nearly as well as the full action space.
New bounds for KANs trained with DP-SGD, addressing correlated noise.
problem Risk bounds for Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks trained by DP-SGD with correlated noise.
method Established new optimization and population risk analysis for KANs trained with DP-SGD, addressing correlated noise.
result First optimization and population risk analysis of correlated-noise mechanisms for DP training in non-convex settings, including neural networks.
New method uses tensor networks to price multi-asset options efficiently.
problem Pricing multi-asset options via classical full-grid solvers is computationally infeasible due to the curse of dimensionality.
method Quantized tensor trains (QTT) transform the d-asset Black-Scholes PDE into a tractable high-dimensional problem.
result Full-grid prices and Greeks for correlated basket and max-min options in three to five dimensions can be computed with high accuracy.
New method interprets quantum many-body snapshots for phase detection.
problem Classifying phases of matter from quantum simulations.
method Confusion learning with correlation convolutional neural networks.
result Network detects changes in thermodynamic properties of quantum systems.
ExCIR provides efficient, consistent, and scalable explainability for complex models.
problem Complex models lack transparency and require efficient, stable, and scalable explainability methods.
method ExCIR uses correlation-aware feature attribution with robust centering and groupwise aggregation.
result ExCIR delivers trustworthy agreement with global baselines and full model rankings, reduces runtime, and scales to large datasets.
Motivated by social balance theory, we develop a theory of link classification in signed networks using the correlation clustering index as measure of label regularity. We derive learning bounds in terms of correlation clustering within three fundamental transductive learning settings: online, batch and active. Our mai…
Researchers develop geodesics for a new metric on correlation matrices.
problem Lack of intrinsic tools for statistical analyses of correlation matrices.
method Developed geodesics for the quotient-affine metric on full-rank correlation matrices.
result Provided fundamental Riemannian operations for the quotient-affine metric.
New method estimates sparse covariance matrices in logit mixtures.
problem Estimating correlations among random coefficients in logit models.
method Mixed-integer optimization (MIO) with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for posterior draws.
result Correctly recovers true covariance structure from synthetic data.
New algorithm learns from noisy and correlated game outcomes.
problem Learning to play a repeated multi-agent game with unknown reward function.
method GP-MW algorithm using Gaussian processes and multiplicative weight method.
result Novel kernel-dependent regret bounds comparable to full information settings.
PortBench benchmarks LLMs for PM, revealing their weaknesses in diversification and robustness.
problem Lack of benchmarks for LLM-driven portfolio management, especially in diversification and robustness.
method Developed a comprehensive benchmark with a static QA dataset and a dynamic allocation pipeline, introducing metrics to evaluate correlation and robustness.
result 90% of LLMs fail to outperform a basic equal-weight allocation, highlighting their limitations in diversification and robustness.
We introduce a mean-reverting SDE whose solution is naturally defined on the space of correlation matrices. This SDE can be seen as an extension of the well-known Wright-Fisher diffusion. We provide conditions that ensure weak and strong uniqueness of the SDE, and describe its ergodic limit. We also shed light on a use…
Study analyzes stock market correlations using multivariate distributions.
problem Capturing the correlation structure of complex, non-stationary systems.
method Applied Random Matrix Model to empirical data of 479 US stocks.
result Described and quantified changes in empirical distributions due to non-stationarity.
Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.
problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.
ARIMA-LSTM hybrid model predicts stock price correlation coefficients.
problem Predicting future stock price correlation coefficients for portfolio optimization.
method ARIMA-LSTM hybrid model combining ARIMA for linear tendencies and LSTM for non-linear temporal dependencies.
result ARIMA-LSTM model outperforms other models in predicting stock price correlation coefficients.
A framework for navigating environments with spatially correlated obstacles and uncertain blockage status.
problem Navigation in environments with spatially correlated obstacles of uncertain blockage status.
method Modeling spatial correlation with Gaussian Random Field, developing Bayesian belief updates, proposing a two-stage learning framework with offline and online phases.
result Consistent performance gains over baselines in environments with adversarial interruptions or clustered natural hazards.
Exact and scalable algorithm for Gaussian process regression with Matérn correlations.
problem Efficient Gaussian process regression with Matérn correlations.
method Novel kernel packet theory and sparse representation of covariance matrix.
result Significantly superior to existing alternatives in computational time and predictive accuracy.
We introduce canonical correlation forests (CCFs), a new decision tree ensemble method for classification and regression. Individual canonical correlation trees are binary decision trees with hyperplane splits based on local canonical correlation coefficients calculated during training. Unlike axis-aligned alternatives…
Paper proves minibatch SGD for GP inference converges and improves generalization.
problem Theoretical understanding and practical use of SGD for correlated samples in Gaussian process inference.
method Proves minibatch SGD converges to a critical point with rate O(1/K) for K iterations, under certain kernel conditions.
result Minibatch SGD for GP inference improves generalization and reduces computational burden.
Study liquidity impact on spread option pricing.
problem Imperfect liquidity in stock markets affects option pricing.
method Developed partial-impact and full-impact models to analyze European spread options.
result Full impact model leads to higher option prices due to increased stock buying.
This paper uses rank correlation methods to construct MSTs from financial returns, finding them more stable and robust.
problem Stability and robustness of MSTs constructed from financial correlation matrices.
method Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall's τ rank correlation methods applied to daily financial returns. result Rank MSTs are more stable and robust than MSTs constructed using Pearson correlation.
This article deals with the problem of optimal allocation of capital to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios when there is the possibility of correlated defaults. Using a multivariate normal Copula function for the joint default probabilities we show that retaining the first few moments of the portfolio default l…
We study the Heston-Cox-Ingersoll-Ross++ stochastic-local volatility model in the context of foreign exchange markets and propose a Monte Carlo simulation scheme which combines the full truncation Euler scheme for the stochastic volatility component and the stochastic domestic and foreign short interest rates with the …
Machine learning methods for solving the equations of dynamical mean-field theory are developed. The method is demonstrated on the three dimensional Hubbard model. The key technical issues are defining a mapping of an input function to an output function, and distinguishing metallic from insulating solutions. Both meta…
The study improves sentiment analysis of 10-K filings, revealing aggregation effects on accuracy and correlation with market outcomes.
problem Lack of sentiment analysis for 10-K filings, particularly for risk disclosures.
method Supervised lexicon-learning approach applied to 10-K filings and Item 1A risk-factor sections, trained against return and volatility labels at different levels of aggregation.
result Sentiment analysis of Item 1A sections performs better at the individual-firm level, while full-filing text is more accurate at sector and portfolio levels.
The study uses Hidden Markov Models to analyze student enrollment patterns and academic performance.
problem Limited understanding of how enrollment patterns affect academic performance.
method Applied Hidden Markov Models to categorize enrollment strategies and compare academic outcomes.
result Mixed enrollment strategies lead to better academic performance, especially during part-time semesters.
A self-supervised debiasing method using rank regularization mitigates spurious correlations in neural networks.
problem Spurious correlations cause biases in deep neural networks, affecting generalization.
method Spectral analysis of latent representations, rank regularization, self-supervised pretraining, debiasing of downstream tasks.
result The proposed framework significantly improves generalization performance and outperforms supervised debiasing approaches.
The study identifies spurious correlations in high-dimensional regression and quantifies their impact.
problem Spurious correlations in high-dimensional regression models.
method Statistical characterization of spurious correlations, quantifying their amount via ridge regularization.
result The value of regularization strength that minimizes test loss is in an interval where spurious correlations increase.
Develops log-Euclidean Lie groups for SPD and correlation matrices.
problem Unifies various log-Euclidean constructions for SPD and correlation matrices.
method Theory and explicit isometries linking different log-Euclidean metrics.
result Explicit log-Euclidean metrics on SPD and correlation matrices.
A new method for sparse Gaussian process regression using correlated experts.
problem Sparse Gaussian process regression for large datasets with cubic computational complexity.
method Aggregating predictions from correlated experts to improve scalability and accuracy.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods for synthetic and real-world datasets.
Full-batch GD outperforms one-pass SGD in learning a single-index model with quadratic activation.
problem Learning a single-index model with quadratic activation using gradient descent.
method Full-batch gradient descent compared to one-pass stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on a correlation loss.
result Full-batch GD requires only n≃d samples for strong recovery, while one-pass SGD requires n≳dlogd samples. Selective classification can worsen accuracy disparities between groups.
problem Selective classification can magnify existing accuracy disparities between various groups.
method Study of margin distribution and distributionally-robust models.
result Selective classification can uniformly improve each group on distributionally-robust models.
New framework selects high-quality pretraining data without training LLMs.
problem Slow progress in understanding pretraining data due to costly experiments.
method Statistical framework based on perplexity-benchmark correlations.
result Approach outperforms existing methods on multiple benchmarks.
BCGD algorithm improves training of quantized neural networks.
problem Training quantized deep neural networks at low bit-widths.
method Introduces coarse gradient descent and blended correction for training.
result BCGD achieves high accuracy in quantized neural networks.
It is commonly accepted that Commodities futures and forward prices, in principle, agree under some simplifying assumptions. One of the most relevant assumptions is the absence of counterparty risk. Indeed, due to margining, futures have practically no counterparty risk. Forwards, instead, may bear the full risk of def…
New method estimates intrinsic dimensionality in undersampled data.
problem Challenges in estimating intrinsic dimensionality in high-dimensional, undersampled data.
method Uses tangent space properties and full correlation integral for accurate estimation.
result Capable of estimating ID in extremely undersampled regimes and curved manifolds.
This article deals with the problem of optimal allocation of capital to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios when there is the possibility of correlated defaults. Under fairly general assumptions for the distribution of the total net assets of a set of firms we show that retaining the first few moments of the por…
New method uses MMD estimators to enforce model invariance with missing data.
problem Models trained on missing data can fail on related test distributions.
method Derives MMD estimators for enforcing model invariance under missing nuisances.
result Optimizing through MMD estimates achieves similar test performance to using full data.
Exact simulation of correlated binary outcomes using PMF constraints and linear programming.
problem Simulating dependent Bernoulli outcomes with specific means and correlations.
method Formulate the problem over the joint Bernoulli PMF, impose constraints, and solve as a linear program. Use convex-hull characterization and truncated-moment completion scheme for feasibility and simulation.
result Exact simulation framework for correlated binary outcomes, providing a convex-hull characterization and truncated-moment completion scheme.
New pruning method captures global correlations for efficient neural network inference.
problem Efficiently pruning neural networks for faster inference and reduced memory usage.
method Second-order structured pruning (SOSP-H) with innovative saliency-based approaches.
result SOSP-H scales to large-scale vision tasks and improves accuracy without compromising efficiency.
Study on MC dropout in wide neural networks and its convergence to Gaussian processes.
problem Understanding the behavior of Monte Carlo dropout in wide neural networks.
method Rigorously studied the limiting distribution of wide untrained NNs under dropout, proving convergence to Gaussian processes. Investigated correlations and non-Gaussian behavior in finite width NNs.
result Wide untrained neural networks under dropout converge to Gaussian processes for fixed sets of weights and biases.
A scalable topic model for large document collections using MapReduce.
problem Scalability issues in topic modeling for large document collections.
method Correlated Topic Model with variational Expectation-Maximization in MapReduce framework.
result Comparable topic coherences with LDA in MapReduce framework.
Quantum models generate financial time series with desired properties.
problem Generating synthetic financial data with temporal correlations.
method Quantum generative adversarial networks (QGANs) with quantum and classical components.
result QGANs can generate financial time series with matching distribution and temporal correlations.
We set up a structural model to study credit risk for a portfolio containing several or many credit contracts. The model is based on a jump--diffusion process for the risk factors, i.e. for the company assets. We also include correlations between the companies. We discuss that models of this type have much in common wi…
This paper proposes a general adaptive procedure for budget-limited predictor design in high dimensions called two-stage Sampling, Prediction and Adaptive Regression via Correlation Screening (SPARCS). SPARCS can be applied to high dimensional prediction problems in experimental science, medicine, finance, and engineer…