arXiv research

Let $S_g$ be a closed orientable surface of genus $g \geq 2$ and $C$ a simple closed nonseparating curve in $F$. Let $t_C$ denote a left handed Dehn twist about $C$. A \textit{fractional power} of $t_C$ of \textit{exponent} $\fraction{\ell}{n}$ is an $h \in \Mod(S_g)$ such that $h^n = t_C^{\ell}$. Unlike a root of a $t…

Python package for estimating Hurst exponent in fBm.

mfBm models and forecasts volatility with different Hurst exponents and correlations.

A new option pricing model uses a time-varying Hurst exponent for more accurate financial predictions.

We study a fractional conformal curvature flow on the standard unit sphere and prove a perturbation result of the fractional Nirenberg problem with fractional exponent $σ\in (1/2,1)$. This extends the result of Chen-Xu (Invent. Math. 187, no. 2, 395-506, 2012) for the scalar curvature flow on the standard unit sphere.

Study proves boundedness of operators in variable exponent Morrey spaces.

Study finds roughness in volatility despite diffusive instantaneous volatility.

We extend neural networks with fractional and mixed activation functions for better function approximation.

Estimates roughness of volatility from discrete variance data.

The so-called level crossing analysis has been used to investigate the empirical data set. But there is a lack of interpretation for what is reflected by the level crossing results. The fractional Gaussian noise as a well-defined stochastic series could be a suitable benchmark to make the level crossing findings more s…

Study tests rough fractional volatility model across different time scales, revealing new volatility patterns.

New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.

Study the link between entropy and market efficiency using fractal properties.

This paper investigates the relationship between price multiscaling and volatility roughness in financial markets.

The long-term dependence of Bitcoin (BTC), manifesting itself through a Hurst exponent $H>0.5$, is exploited in order to predict future BTC/USD price. A Monte Carlo simulation with $10^4$ geometric fractional Brownian motion realisations is performed as extensions of historical data. The accuracy of statistical inferen…

In this paper we apply Markovian approximation of the fractional Brownian motion (BM), known as the Dobric-Ojeda (DO) process, to the fractional stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous variance is modelled by a lognormal process with drift and fractional diffusion. Since the DO process is a semi-martingale,…

It is shown phenomenologically that the fractional derivative $ξ=D^αu$ of order $α$ of a multifractal function has a power-law tail $\propto |ξ| ^{-p_\star}$ in its cumulative probability, for a suitable range of $α$'s. The exponent is determined by the condition $ζ_{p_\star} = αp_\star$, where $ζ_p$ is the exponent of…

Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) arises in modeling of financial time series. FIGARCH is essentially governed by a system of nonlinear stochastic difference equations ${u_t}$ = ${z_t}$ $(1-\sum\limits_{j=1}^q β_j L^j)σ_{t}^2 = ω+(1-\sum\limits_{j=1}^q β_j L^j -…

A method for estimating the cross-correlation $C_{xy}(τ)$ of long-range correlated series $x(t)$ and $y(t)$, at varying lags $τ$ and scales $n$, is proposed. For fractional Brownian motions with Hurst exponents $H_1$ and $H_2$, the asymptotic expression of $C_{xy}(τ)$ depends only on the lag $τ$ (wide-sense stationarit…

We show by explicit closed form calculations that a Hurst exponent H that is not 1/2 does not necessarily imply long time correlations like those found in fractional Brownian motion. We construct a large set of scaling solutions of Fokker-Planck partial differential equations where H is not 1/2. Thus Markov processes, …

The superfamily phenomenon of time series with different dynamics can be characterized by the motif rank patterns observed in the nearest-neighbor networks of the time series in phase space. However, the determinants of superfamily classification are unclear. We attack this problem by studying the influence of linear t…

A new concept, called balanced estimator of diffusion entropy, is proposed to detect scalings in short time series. The effectiveness of the method is verified by means of a large number of artificial fractional Brownian motions. It is used also to detect scaling properties and structural breaks in stock price series o…

Let $(X^{n+1}, g^+)$ be an $(n+1)$-dimensional asymptotically hyperbolic manifold with a conformal infinity $(M^n, [\hat{h}])$. The fractional Yamabe problem addresses to solve \[P^γ[g^+,\hat{h}] (u) = cu^{n+2γ\over n-2γ}, \quad u > 0 \quad \text{on } M\] where $c \in \mathbb{R}$ and $P^γ[g^+,\hat{h}]$ is the fractiona…

The study assesses how financial markets' efficiency changed during the COVID-19 crisis.

Proposes a new metric for financial risk based on volatility's local deviations.

Study on Bitcoin transaction flows and holding times, revealing multifractal and power-law distributions.

The FSRM uses a multifractional process to capture price multifractality, revealing serial information for forecasting.

We discuss stochastic modeling of volatility persistence and anti-correlations in electricity spot prices, and for this purpose we present two mean-reverting versions of the multifractal random walk (MRW). In the first model the anti-correlations are modeled in the same way as in an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, i.e. via…

Study confirms rough volatility in financial data, independent of microstructure noise.

A new model captures multifractal volatility in stock returns.

Financial frequency combs emerge from macroeconomic long-range memory.

A new model captures multifractal volatility in stock returns.

Lazy, perfectly informed investors trade infrequently due to costs.

A measure called relative cluster entropy distinguishes between correlated and uncorrelated sequences.

We propose coalescent mechanism of economic grow because of redistribution of external resources. It leads to Zipf distribution of firms over their sizes, turning to stretched exponent because of size-dependent effects, and predicts exponential distribution of income between individuals. We also present new approach to…

Estimates roughness of stochastic processes without assuming specific models.

There are a number of situations in which several signals are simultaneously recorded in complex systems, which exhibit long-term power-law cross-correlations. The multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) approaches can be used to quantify such cross-correlations, such as the MF-DCCA based on detrend…

Estimates Hurst exponent of log-volatility using KS statistic, addressing serial correlation in financial data.

Deep neural networks estimate long memory parameters efficiently.

Modeling joint log-volatility dynamics with multivariate fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

The problem of existence of solution for the Heath-Jarrow-Morton equation with linear volatility and purely jump random factor is studied. Sufficient conditions for existence and non-existence of the solution in the class of bounded fields are formulated. It is shown that if the first derivative of the Levy-Khinchin ex…

We suggest that the broad distribution of time scales in financial markets could be a crucial ingredient to reproduce realistic price dynamics in stylised Agent-Based Models. We propose a fractional reaction-diffusion model for the dynamics of latent liquidity in financial markets, where agents are very heterogeneous i…

We study the problem of estimating the covariance matrix of a high-dimensional distribution when a small constant fraction of the samples can be arbitrarily corrupted. Recent work gave the first polynomial time algorithms for this problem with near-optimal error guarantees for several natural structured distributions. …

In this paper, we use the generalized Hurst exponent approach to study the multi- scaling behavior of different financial time series. We show that this approach is robust and powerful in detecting different types of multiscaling. We observe a puzzling phenomenon where an apparent increase in multifractality is measure…

Classical (Itô diffusions) stochastic volatility models are not able to capture the steepness of small-maturity implied volatility smiles. Jumps, in particular exponential Lévy and affine models, which exhibit small-maturity exploding smiles, have historically been proposed to remedy this (see \cite{Tank} for an overvi…

Given for instance a finite volume negatively curved Riemannian manifold $M$, we give a precise relation between the logarithmic growth rates of the excursions into cusps neighborhoods of the strong unstable leaves of negatively recurrent unit vectors of $M$ and their linear divergence rates under the geodesic flow. As…

Estimating volatility from recent high frequency data, we revisit the question of the smoothness of the volatility process. Our main result is that log-volatility behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent H of order 0.1, at any reasonable time scale. This leads us to adopt the fractional s…

It will be discussed the statistics of the extreme values in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it will be considered the results of numerical analyses concerning the return intervals of extreme values of the fluctuations of resistance and defect-fraction displa…