FLARKO uses LLMs, KGs, and KTO to generate profitable, behaviorally aligned financial recommendations.
problem Financial recommendation systems often fail to account for behavioral and regulatory factors.
method FLARKO integrates LLMs, KGs, and KTO to generate profitable and behaviorally aligned recommendations.
result FLARKO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art recommendation baselines on behavioral alignment and joint profitability.
Adaptive time decay functions improve financial product recommendation accuracy.
problem Inaccurate recommendations due to static historical data in finance.
method Time-dependent collaborative filtering with personalized decay functions.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art benchmarks in financial product recommendation.
Proposes a comprehensive framework for financial product lead recommendations using graph representation learning and link prediction.
problem Challenges in surface lead recommendations for financial products due to changing market scenarios and difficulty in capturing holder's mindset.
method Bi-partite graph representation of financial holders and funds, GraphSage model for learning representations, link prediction model for ranking recommendations.
result The proposed graph ML solution outperforms baseline by 42%, 22%, and 14% in hit rate for top-k recommendations (50, 100, 200) and 18%, 19%, and 18% on unseen holders.
AI system analyzes financial analyst recommendations and track records for portfolio construction.
problem Human PMs rely on analyst recommendations and track records for portfolio decisions.
method Develops AI-based Recommender Systems to replicate analyst conviction and track records.
result AI can improve portfolio construction by integrating analyst conviction and track records.
A new algorithm adapts to changing user behaviors in finance.
problem Adapting to changing user behaviors in financial recommendations.
method History-Augmented Collaborative Filtering using a custom neural network.
result The algorithm provides dynamic financial recommendations.
Automates investor/company matching with AI, explaining decisions.
problem Matching companies and investors is hard due to limited data and need for explanations.
method Representation learning for small datasets + parameterized explanation generation.
result System performs well on matching task and explains decisions.
Enhances LightGCN for credit bond recommendations with dynamic node embeddings.
problem Challenges in static embeddings for rapidly evolving user interests in finance.
method Causal graph convolution for dynamic node embeddings over chronological user-item interactions.
result Significantly enhances LightGCN performance in financial product recommendations.
The process of liquidity provision in financial markets can result in prolonged exposure to illiquid instruments for market makers. In this case, where a proprietary position is not desired, pro-actively targeting the right client who is likely to be interested can be an effective means to offset this position, rather …
Collaborative filtering, especially latent factor model, has been popularly used in personalized recommendation. Latent factor model aims to learn user and item latent factors from user-item historic behaviors. To apply it into real big data scenarios, efficiency becomes the first concern, including offline model train…
Paper introduces a trading agent using LLMs for risk assessment and trading recommendations.
problem Developing a trading agent that can handle financial risks effectively.
method Extending CPPO algorithm with LLM-generated risk assessment and trading signals from financial news.
result Backtesting shows improved performance of the trading agent compared to benchmarks.
WSB community outperforms investment banks in stock picks.
problem Can WSB's community provide better investment advice than banks?
method Data-driven comparison of WSB and bank recommendations on S&P 500 stocks.
result WSB recommendations outperform banks in some cases and detect top stocks better.
LLMs struggle with financial reasoning but can outperform the market with human oversight.
problem Financial reasoning failures in LLM-generated stock market predictions.
method Evaluated four LLMs using three prompting strategies and compared to human oversight.
result LLMs require human oversight to fully realize their potential in financial markets.
Interpretable AI model boosts investment confidence and profitability.
problem Challenges in financial forecasting and interpretability in decision-making models.
method SHAP-based explainability technique for interpretable AI models.
result Notable enhancement in investor's portfolio value.
A new algorithm for better decision-making in recommendation systems.
problem Stochastic multi-armed bandit problem and cold start problem in recommender systems.
method Proposes Hellinger-UCB, a variant of UCB algorithm using squared Hellinger distance.
result Hellinger-UCB reaches the theoretical lower bound and outperforms other algorithms in practical applications.
This study tackles mutual fund portfolio prediction, focusing on novel items.
problem Predicting novel items in mutual fund portfolios is challenging and less explored.
method Created a comprehensive benchmark dataset and evaluated various recommender system models.
result Autoencoder-based approaches outperform state-of-the-art models in predicting novel items.
Paper details how to smoothly transition from EONIA to ESTR without significant financial impact.
problem Transition from EONIA to ESTR impacts financial instruments, especially OTC derivatives.
method Detailed analysis of how clean discounting approach based on ESTR affects pricing of OIS, IRS, and XVAs.
result The transition to EONIA-free pricing framework is safe and consistent, ensuring complete elimination of EONIA.
New method detects heuristics in complex game strategies.
problem Understanding decision-making in games with infinite strategy spaces.
method Introducing decoupled strategies to detect convergence towards Nash equilibria.
result Predictive measure ΔD reveals participants' actions with high success rate.
This study assesses how share capital affects financial growth of non-financial firms listed at NSE.
problem Non-financial firms listed at NSE struggle with financial growth due to declining performance and lack of investor interest.
method Descriptive and panel data analysis of 45 non-financial firms over 10 years.
result Share capital positively and significantly influences financial growth, explaining 32.73% and 11.62% of variations in earnings per share and market capitalization growth, respectively.
The financial services industry has unique explainability and fairness challenges arising from compliance and ethical considerations in credit decisioning. These challenges complicate the use of model machine learning and artificial intelligence methods in business decision processes.
New model recommends stocks considering individual preferences and diversification.
problem Inaccurate stock price predictions and ignoring investment theories.
method Portfolio Temporal Graph Network Recommender (PfoTGNRec) incorporating diversification-enhancing sampling.
result PfoTGNRec outperforms state-of-the-art models in real-world data.
Study on financial impacts of zombie outbreak on economy.
problem Financial and economic consequences of a zombie epidemic.
method Epidemiological modeling and financial computation.
result GDP losses of 23.44% and financial market drop of 29.30% in a major industrialized nation.
With the rapid development of Internet finance, a large number of studies have shown that Internet financial platforms have different financial systemic risk characteristics when they are subject to macroeconomic shocks or fragile internal crisis. From the perspective of regional development of Internet finance, this p…
Study uses LLMs to optimize VC exit timing after IPO.
problem Optimal exit timing after IPO is crucial but not well studied.
method Uses LLMs to analyze financial data and market signals.
result LLMs can improve VC exit timing and generate better returns.
Study uses supercomputers to improve financial predictions.
problem Improving financial predictions through better exploration of data.
method Refactored and ran algorithm on Fugaku supercomputer, exploring more rules.
result Increasing the number of explored rules improves predictive performance.
Model predicts Mozambique bank failures, aiding risk management.
problem Lack of bankruptcy prediction model in Mozambique banking sector.
method Linear Discriminant Analysis method, using financial indicators.
result Model accurately predicted 84% of bank failures 1 year before Central Bank intervention.
Proposes a new framework for resource-limited recommendation.
problem Resource constraints affect user choices in recommendation tasks.
method Interest-behavior multiplicative network with MRRNNs and resource-limited branch.
result Framework effectively predicts user interactions considering resource limitations.
This study compares two neural models for financial forecasting, showing their superiority.
problem Improving financial market trend predictions using neural networks.
method Systematic comparison of N-HiTS and N-BEATS with conventional models.
result N-HiTS and N-BEATS enhance forecast accuracy and robustness in financial time series data.
We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset are conditioned by information on the way in which the variable evolves from simil…
Study clusters Kenyan medical insurance companies based on financial performance and reporting consistency.
problem Identifying financial health and reporting consistency in Kenyan medical insurance companies.
method Advanced clustering techniques (KMeans, DTW) on financial ratios and time series data.
result Four distinct clusters identified, each representing different financial performance and reporting consistency combinations.
Fund2Persona creates personalized financial advisor personas from fund data, improving investment advice.
problem Lack of consistent advisor expertise and difficulty in encoding it in LLM systems.
method Grounds financial advisor personas in fund disclosures, market context, and manager commentary through an agentic actor--scorer--patcher loop.
result Personas better recover portfolio decisions and manager interpretation than generic baselines.
Fund2Persona creates personalized financial advisor personas from fund data, improving investment advice and manager interpretation.
problem Lack of consistent and specific financial advisor expertise in personalized investment advice.
method Grounds financial advisor personas in fund disclosures, holdings transitions, market context, and manager commentary through an agentic actor--scorer--patcher loop.
result Personas better recover portfolio decisions and grounded manager interpretation than generic baselines.
Financial markets are notoriously complex environments, presenting vast amounts of noisy, yet potentially informative data. We consider the problem of forecasting financial time series from a wide range of information sources using online Gaussian Processes with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) kernels. We measu…
Study earnings calls to predict stock price movements, finding them more predictive than traditional data.
problem Improving investment decisions by analyzing earnings calls for stock price predictions.
method Graph Neural Network based approach to process and analyze earnings call transcripts.
result Earnings call transcripts are more predictive of stock price movements than traditional hard data.
Value-at-Risk is a flawed substitute for non-ruin capital, leading to misleading financial standards.
problem Misuse of Value-at-Risk as a risk measure, replacing non-ruin capital, leads to flawed financial standards.
method Mathematical analysis of risk measures and their implications on financial standards.
result Non-ruin capital is a more accurate risk measure than Value-at-Risk, necessitating its adoption over the former.
Study shows long-term debt impacts financial growth of non-financial firms listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange.
problem Declining financial performance and reluctance to lend to non-financial firms listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange.
method Descriptive and panel data analysis of 45 non-financial firms over 10 years.
result Long-term debt positively and significantly influences financial growth measured by earnings per share and market capitalization.
Study assesses short-term debt's impact on non-financial firms' financial growth.
problem Declining financial performance and reluctance to lend to non-financial firms listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange.
method Explanatory research design, descriptive statistics, and panel data analysis.
result Short-term debt positively and significantly influences financial growth.
Study finds dividend payout policy positively impacts firm profitability.
problem Determining the optimal dividend payout ratio and its effect on financial performance.
method Panel data analysis of 60 Indian listed firms over 10 years, using ROA as a proxy for profitability.
result Positive and significant relationship between dividend payout policy and firm performance.
The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage for billions of people. H…
Optimizes task allocation for financial analysts to balance work efficiency and well-being.
problem Balancing business goals with financial analysts' well-being in error resolution tasks.
method Used a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to optimize task allocation considering both business goals and analyst well-being.
result GA model outperforms existing methods and is applicable to various real-world scenarios.
MountainLion uses LLMs to interpret financial data and generate investment strategies.
problem Challenges in integrating heterogeneous data for financial trading.
method Multi-modal LLM-based agents that process textual and visual data.
result Improves returns and investor confidence through interpretable investment framework.
NAS for financial time series forecasts using chain-structured architectures.
problem Optimizing neural architectures for financial time series forecasting.
method Comparison of three NAS strategies (Bayesian optimization, hyperband, reinforcement learning) on chain-structured search spaces for simple and complex architectures.
result Bayesian optimization and hyperband outperform other strategies, and RNN and 1D CNN perform best among architectures.
Accounting frameworks follow stipulations of existing Accounting Theories. This exploratory research sets out to trace the evolution of accounting theories of Charge and Discharge Syndrome and the Corollary of Double Entry. Furthermore, it dives into the theories of Income Determination, garnishing it with areas of div…
Myanmar is languishing at the bottom of key international indexes. United Nations considers the country as a structurally weak and vulnerable economy. Yet, from 2011 when Myanmar ended decades of military rule and isolationism and transited towards democracy, its breakneck development has led to many considering the co…
The study examines how posterior drift affects forecasting accuracy in overparametrized models, particularly in financial markets.
problem Impact of posterior drift on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy in overparametrized models.
method Investigation of posterior drift and its effect on model performance in financial markets.
result Overparametrized models can be sensitive to sub-periods and bandwidth parameters, leading to inconsistent returns.
Digital Financial Services continue to expand and replace the delivery of traditional banking services to the customers through innovative technologies to meet the growing complex needs and globalization challenges. These diversified digital products help the organizations (service providers) to improve their firm perf…
Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-t residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach are particularly recommended. This study introduces yet another VaR predictor, …
Deviation-based learning improves recommender systems by abstaining from recommending choices users might follow.
problem Recommender systems learn from user choices but can stall if users blindly follow recommendations.
method The recommender learns user knowledge by observing choices, abstaining from recommending a choice when multiple alternatives produce similar payoffs.
result Learning rate and social welfare improve when the recommender abstains from recommending certain choices.
We consider in this paper some structured financial products, known as reverse convertible notes, that resulted in substantial losses to certain buyers of these notes in recent years. We shall focus on specific reverse convertible notes known as "Autocallable Optimization Securities with Contingent Protection Linked to…