The Financial Chaos Index models stock market volatility across three regimes based on mutual price fluctuations.
problem Capturing regime-dependent volatility in stock markets.
method Developed a regime-switching framework using the Financial Chaos Index (FCIX) and elastic net regression.
result Identified three market regimes: low-chaos, intermediate-chaos, and high-chaos, each with distinct volatility characteristics.
Study finds market inefficiencies vary by time scale, with news uncertainty key.
problem Evaluating scale-dependent informational efficiency of stock markets.
method Tensor-eigenvalue-based Financial Chaos Index, Granger causality, network analysis.
result Semi-strong form of EMH rejected at daily frequency, but not at monthly.
New stock market index captures market chaos and volatility.
problem Capturing the chaotic nature of stock market volatility.
method Tensor-based embedding of stock market information, time-dependent dynamical system model.
result Bidirectional causal relation between realized and implied volatility.
The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Usi…
Modeling financial chaos with market makers' risk appetite.
problem Unpredictable price changes in financial markets.
method Using Hamiltonian approach with anharmonic oscillators and nonlinear coupling.
result Market makers' risk appetite determines chaotic dynamics in financial markets.
Novel CMG framework improves financial sentiment forecasting.
problem Challenges in short-term sentiment forecasting of financial OHLC data.
method Integrates chaos theory, Markov chains, and Gaussian processes with transformer models.
result Consistently outperforms traditional models in accuracy and efficiency.
In this paper we study the price dynamics in a simple model of financial markets with heterogeneous agents. We concentrate on how increases in the total number of active traders influences fluctuations of asset prices. We find that a curious route to chaos is observed when the total number of [active traders] increases…
Financial frequency combs emerge from macroeconomic long-range memory.
problem Financial economy's long-run cyclic structure
method Incommensurate fractional-order financial model
result Frequency comb structure in steady-state spectrum
TreeDOX predicts chaotic systems without hyperparameter tuning.
problem Forecasting chaotic systems requires hyperparameter tuning, limiting adoption.
method TreeDOX uses time delay overembedding and Extra-Trees Regressors.
result TreeDOX achieves state-of-the-art performance on chaotic systems.
A machine learning approach to compute Black-Scholes prices with uncertain volatility.
problem Approximating financial markets with continuous-time models like Black-Scholes when data is discrete.
method Generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) method combined with a machine learning technique called Bi-Fidelity.
result Efficient numerical method to quantify uncertainty in derivative pricing.
Novel RKHS approach solves complex financial model equations.
problem Calibrating singular local stochastic volatility models.
method Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) regularization.
result Regularized model is well-posed and replicates option prices.
We compare correlations and coherent structures in nuclei and financial markets. In the nuclear physics part we review giant resonances which can be interpreted as a coherent structure embedded in chaos. With similar methods we investigate the financial empirical correlation matrix of the DAX and Dow Jones. We will sho…
In agreement with the recent research findings in the econophysics, we propose that the nonlinear dynamic chaos can be generated by the turbulent capital flows in both the quantitative easing transmission channels and the transaction networks channels, when there are the laminar turbulent capital flows transitions in t…
In the current environment of financial distress, many governments are likely to soon become major holders of financial assets, but the policy debate focuses only on the likelihood and extent of short-term market stabilization. This paper shows that government intervention and propping up are likely to lead to long-ter…
The study reveals chaos in geometric objects embedded in higher dimensions.
problem Understanding chaos in higher-dimensional geometries.
method Analyzing the embedding of chaos in geometric objects of varying dimensions.
result Chaos in higher dimensions is a one-dimensional geometrical object embedded in a higher-dimensional object.
The resilience of low-degree Rademacher chaos is studied, providing probabilistic lower bounds.
problem Understanding how much a Rademacher chaos can withstand adversarial sign-flips without significant probability changes.
method Probabilistic lower-bound guarantees for the resilience of Rademacher chaos of arbitrary degree.
result Probabilistic lower-bound guarantees for the resilience of Rademacher chaos of arbitrary degree, especially meaningful for constant degree.
We analyze the financial crash in 2008 for different financial markets from the point of view of log-periodic function model. In particular, we consider Dow Jones index, DAX index and Hang Seng index. We shortly discuss the possible relation of the theory of critical phenomena in physics to financial markets.
The paper discusses the main ideas of the chaos theory and presents mainly the importance of the nonlinearities in the mathematical models. Chaos and order are apparently two opposite terms. The fact that in chaos can be found a certain precise symmetry (Feigenbaum numbers) is even more surprising. As an illustration o…
Algorithm of multicurrency trading at the market of Forex is realized on the basis of nonlinear stochastic wavelets. The distinctive feature of the algorithm is the possibility of weakly- and strongly connected horizontal self-assemblies, as well as use of nested structures. On-line trading with eight currency couples …
The aim of this paper is to propose a heterogeneous agent model of stock markets that develop complicated endogenous price fluctuations. We find occurrences of non-stationary chaos, or speculative bubble, are caused by the heterogeneity of traders' strategies. Furthermore, we show that the distributions of returns gene…
Study examines cross-training neural networks for financial index prediction.
problem Predicting financial indexes from different markets using machine learning.
method Investigated various neural network architectures and trained them on one market index to predict another.
result Cross-training models on one market index improved prediction accuracy for another market index.
We have carried out simulations of a financial model of the firm to analyse the validity of the concept of Trade on Equity in dynamics. The results exhibit the ability of the borrowing policy connected to a cautious dividend distribution to inject chaos into the profit motion. The 3D system built with the van der Pol's…
The paper approximates financial derivatives using neural networks and iterated integrals.
problem Approximating p-integrable financial derivatives. method Using iterated Stratonovich integrals and neural networks.
result Approximate solutions to the Lp-hedging problem. Global balance index measures systemic risk in financial networks.
problem Measuring systemic risk in financial networks.
method Defined global balance index based on a diffusive process and linear system.
result Global balance index correlates with systemic risk measures.
Study on spin random fields using chaos decomposition for cosmic microwave background modeling.
problem Modeling polarization of Cosmic Microwave Background using spin random fields.
method Explicit Wiener-Itô chaos decomposition of area measures of level sets.
result Reveals a clear difference between high frequency regime and zero spin case.
The purpose of this research article is to discover how the econophysics analysis can complement the econometrics models in application to the risk management in the central banks and financial institutions, operating within the nonlinear dynamical financial system. We consider the modern risk management models and sho…
Paper introduces a new index to measure financial and workplace resilience of firms.
problem Corporate resilience and its types in turbulent markets.
method Quantitative analysis of earnings expectations and implied discount rates.
result Evidence of workplace resilience amplification by financial status in the COVID-19 era.
In this paper we calibrate chaotic models for interest rates to market data using a polynomial-exponential parametrization for the chaos coefficients. We identify a subclass of one-variable models that allow us to introduce complexity from higher order chaos in a controlled way while retaining considerable analytic tra…
The investment economy is a main characteristic of prosperous society. The investment portfolio management is a main financial problem, which has to be solved by the investment, commercial and central banks with the application of modern portfolio theory in the investment economy. We use the learning analytics together…
New insights into neural network training efficiency.
problem Understanding the optimal initialization for deep neural networks.
method Exploring the edge of chaos and saturation of tanh activation function.
result The line of uniformity in phase space intersects the edge of chaos, indicating saturation begins to hinder training efficiency.
New turbulence index using TDA detects financial market transitions.
problem Detecting critical transitions in financial markets.
method Persistent homology for identifying topological features.
result Persistent homology-based index captures financial data transitions.
SOC theory explains financial volatility and economic shocks.
problem Excess volatility and small shocks causing large disruptions.
method Explains system behavior at critical point with fat-tailed fluctuations.
result SOC theory offers a plausible solution to financial market volatility.
Enhances polynomial chaos models with uncertainty intervals.
problem Uncertainty quantification in surrogate models.
method Jackknife-based conformal prediction integrated into polynomial chaos expansions.
result Produces accurate predictive intervals for low-accuracy models.
Study shows uniform-time chaos propagation in mean field Langevin dynamics.
problem Understanding the convergence of marginal distributions in mean field dynamics.
method Assumed functional convexity of energy, used Lp-convergence and Wasserstein metrics. result Uniform-in-time propagation of chaos proved in both L2-Wasserstein and relative entropy. Quantum SVM improves financial data classification.
problem Classifying financial data using quantum machine learning.
method Application of quantum kernels to financial data, specifically DSEx Broad Index.
result Empirical quantum advantage demonstrated for financial data classification.
Modeling bank leverage dynamics to understand systemic risk in financial markets.
problem Understanding systemic risk in financial markets triggered by bank leverage dynamics.
method Developed a dynamical model of bank leverage, analyzing coupled dynamics in isolated and interconnected bank models.
result Identified a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage, leading to chaotic dynamics.
The paper introduces invariants to describe period-doubling routes to chaos in dynamical systems.
problem Understanding the dynamics of period-doubling routes to chaos in complex systems.
method Introducing three topological invariants to describe the topology of period-doubling routes to chaos.
result Ascribed symbolic dynamics to perturbations of the Shilnikov homoclinic scenario and dynamics of the Henon map.
This paper reviews and analyzes various modeling approaches for financial index tracking.
problem Efficient replication of market index performance in financial markets.
method Categorization into three frameworks: optimization, statistical, and machine learning; empirical study on S&P 500 dataset.
result Optimization-based models deliver the most precise index tracking, statistical-based models achieve the strongest return-risk balance, and data-driven models provide competitive performance.
Uniform-in-time analysis for Stein Variational Gradient Descent across various metrics.
problem Understanding long-term behavior of finite-particle systems in relation to their mean-field limits.
method Developed uniform-in-time propagation-of-chaos results for continuous-time SVGD using cutoff strategies and finite-dimensional theories.
result Uniform-in-time propagation-of-chaos bounds in various metrics, including Langevin kernel Stein discrepancy, Wasserstein-1, and Wasserstein-2 distances.
Researchers use quantum chaos and RMT to analyze turbulence, revealing unique scaling laws.
problem Understanding the statistical structure and scaling laws of turbulence.
method Applied tools from quantum chaos and Random Matrix Theory to analyze turbulence datasets.
result Turbulence Gram matrices exhibit power-law scalings distinct from classical chaos and random data.
We propose an approach to explain fluctuations in time intervals of financial markets data from the view point of the Gini index. We show the explicit form of the Gini index for a Weibull distribution which is a good candidate to describe the first passage time of foreign exchange rate. The analytical expression of the…
Improved FDR control for sparse financial index tracking.
problem Maintaining FDR control in high-dimensional financial data with strong variable dependencies.
method Expanding T-Rex framework to handle overlapping groups of correlated variables with nearest neighbors penalization.
result Accurately tracks the S&P 500 index using only a small number of stocks.
Hybrid SA algorithm optimizes index tracking for large indices.
problem Optimizing index tracking for large indices with financial constraints.
method Hybrid simulated annealing algorithm.
result Algorithm finds optimal solutions for past and future returns.
New model predicts financial market abnormalities using stock index uncertainties.
problem Forecasting abnormal financial fluctuations in the market.
method Quantitative analysis of mean and volatility uncertainties, constructing early warning indicators.
result Established a new abnormal fluctuations warning model.
Bank transactions help predict macroeconomic indexes faster and more accurately.
problem Lag in macroeconomic index availability and autoregressive models' limitations in complex scenarios.
method Use financial transactions data to estimate macroeconomic indexes using neural networks and smart sampling.
result Neural network approach outperforms baseline methods on hand-crafted features based on transactions.
Neural networks solve SPDEs using Wiener chaos expansion.
problem Solving stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) numerically.
method Using neural networks in the truncated Wiener chaos expansion.
result Approximation rates for learning SPDE solutions with noise.
In the area of traditional physics the atomic nucleus belongs to the most complex systems. It involves essentially all elements that characterize complexity including the most distinctive one whose essence is a permanent coexistence of coherent patterns and of randomness. From a more interdisciplinary perspective, thes…
The paper models asset prices using Wiener chaos expansions for efficient calibration to implied volatility surfaces.
problem Calibrating to implied volatility surfaces using flexible martingale models.
method Constructing an over-parameterized martingale model based on Wiener chaos expansions and conditional expectations.
result The method enables fast calibration to implied volatility surfaces and demonstrates flexibility through numerical experiments.