NPE trains neural networks to approximate posterior distributions in SIR models from final outcome data.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian inference for SIR models with final outcome data.
method Neural posterior estimation (NPE) using a logNormal posterior approximated by a neural network.
result NPE accurately recovers reference posteriors across various population sizes and transmission regimes.
Paper simplifies balancing weights by relaxing outcome assumptions.
problem Estimating missing outcomes in a target population.
method Relaxes outcome assumptions to simplify balancing weights.
result Balancing weights can be simplified with convex loss and minimum worst-case bias.
Twitter has been proven to be a notable source for predictive modelling on various domains such as the stock market, the dissemination of diseases or sports outcomes. However, such a study has not been conducted in football (soccer) so far. The purpose of this research was to study whether data mined from Twitter can b…
A method corrects bias in estimating a high-dimensional classification rule using auxiliary outcomes.
problem Bias in estimating a high-dimensional classification rule using only one outcome.
method Robust transfer learning approach combining MTL and calibration steps.
result Final estimator achieves lower error than using only the target outcome.
The paper tackles long-term treatment effects with persistent confounders using sequential short-term outcomes.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with persistent unmeasured confounders.
method Exploiting the sequential structure of short-term outcomes, the paper develops three novel identification strategies and corresponding estimators.
result The proposed methods outperform existing approaches in handling persistent confounders.
The paper introduces Precision Disease Networks (PDN) for predicting medical outcomes.
problem Predicting medical outcomes for patients with diseases.
method Building patient-specific disease networks, clustering, and data visualization.
result PDN improves prediction of patient outcomes compared to standard statistical analysis.
Causal ML predicts treatment outcomes, aiding personalized medicine.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects for personalized medicine.
method Flexible, data-driven methods using causal inference with clinical trial and real-world data.
result Causal ML allows for estimating individualized treatment effects.
Fuses ITRs for primary and secondary outcomes to minimize harm.
problem Learn an ITR maximizing primary outcome while minimizing harm to secondary outcomes.
method Introduces fusion penalty to encourage similar recommendations for different outcomes. Two algorithms estimate the ITR using surrogate loss functions.
result Agreement rate between primary and secondary optimal ITRs converges faster than ignoring secondary outcomes.
CCN estimates full potential outcome distributions without restrictive assumptions.
problem Estimating CATE is insufficient; full potential outcome distributions provide greater insights.
method Collaborating Causal Networks (CCN) learns full potential outcome distributions without restrictive assumptions.
result CCN learns distributions that asymptotically capture true potential outcome distributions.
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.
The paper bounds and identifies joint probabilities in causal inference with monotonicity assumptions.
problem Bounding and identifying joint probabilities of potential outcomes and observed variables under monotonicity assumptions.
method Proposes new families of monotonicity assumptions, formulates bounding problem as linear programming, introduces new monotonicity assumption for identification.
result Validated methods through numerical experiments and applied to real-world datasets.
The study aims to explore the strength of causal relationship between stock price search interest and real stock market outcomes on worldwide equity market indices. Such a phenomenon could also be mediated by investor behavior and extent of news coverage. The stock-specific internet search trends data and corresponding…
Deep learning model predicts severe COVID-19 outcomes.
problem Predicting severe COVID-19 outcomes in ED patients.
method Deep feature fusion model using EHR data and CXR images.
result CO-RISK score achieved AUC of 0.95 and 0.92 for 24 and 72 hours predictions, superior to human performance.
This study redefines probability for finite outcomes using axioms and examples.
problem Defining probability for finite outcomes and preserving information.
method Developed three axioms for relative probability functions and provided examples and a system for their composition.
result Proved the topological closure of the relative probability space, preserving information under limits.
This tutorial introduces causal modeling methods for researchers.
problem Understanding causal relationships in research studies.
method Integrates potential outcomes and graphical methods for causal modeling.
result Clear notation and practical examples for applied researchers.
The adoption of automated, data-driven decision making in an ever expanding range of applications has raised concerns about its potential unfairness towards certain social groups. In this context, a number of recent studies have focused on defining, detecting, and removing unfairness from data-driven decision systems. …
PDX studies help personalize cancer treatment.
problem Precision medicine in cancer treatment.
method Machine learning methods for estimating optimal ITRs from PDX data.
result Superlearner approach combining multiple ITRs improves personalized treatment recommendations.
PNNs improve treatment outcomes in TAVR and liver trauma.
problem Improving treatment outcomes in medical procedures.
method Multimodal Prescriptive Neural Networks (PNNs) combining optimization and machine learning.
result PNNs significantly improve estimated outcomes in medical procedures.
We discuss here the mean-field theory for a cellular automata model of meta-learning. The meta-learning is the process of combining outcomes of individual learning procedures in order to determine the final decision with higher accuracy than any single learning method. Our method is constructed from an ensemble of inte…
We study notions of fairness in decision-making systems when individuals have diverse preferences over the possible outcomes of the decisions. Our starting point is the seminal work of Dwork et al. which introduced a notion of individual fairness (IF): given a task-specific similarity metric, every pair of individuals …
TSC improves causal effect estimation in panel data.
problem Estimating causal effects in panel data with a single treated unit.
method Targeted synthetic control method that refines initial weights through a one-dimensional targeted update.
result TSC consistently improves estimation accuracy over state-of-the-art SCM baselines.
The paper explores trading off consistency and dimensionality in convex surrogates for multiclass classification.
problem Designing consistent surrogate losses for multiclass classification with high-dimensional outcomes.
method Investigates embedding outcomes into convex polytopes and examining consistency under low-noise assumptions.
result Consistency can be achieved with less than n−1 dimensions, but hallucination occurs for some distributions. DEBIAS learns causal effects from psychiatric longitudinal data by optimizing outcome weights.
problem Causal inference challenges in psychiatric longitudinal data due to symptom heterogeneity and latent confounding.
method DEBIAS algorithm that optimizes outcome weights to maximize durable treatment effects and minimize confounding.
result DEBIAS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in recovering causal effects for clinically interpretable composite outcomes.
This paper significantly improves on, and finishes to validate, an approach proposed in previous research in which safety outcomes were predicted from attributes with machine learning. Like in the original study, we use Natural Language Processing (NLP) to extract fundamental attributes from raw incident reports and ma…
New method uses unlabeled data to improve model robustness across different environments.
problem Learning robust models for new, unseen environments when labeled data are scarce.
method Regularizes model sensitivity to perturbations in covariate means and covariances without requiring labels.
result Empirically validated on physical and physiological datasets, demonstrating improved robustness.
Online Platt Scaling adapts to varying data distributions.
problem Adapting Platt scaling to non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift.
method Combines Platt scaling with online logistic regression and calibeating.
result OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcomes.
Study uses surrogate data to improve treatment effect estimation with scarce outcome data.
problem Limited outcome data hinders estimating treatment effects.
method Uses abundant surrogate data to estimate treatment effects without stringent assumptions.
result Improves precision of treatment effect estimation.
New framework for estimating treatment effects in observational studies.
problem Estimating average treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Distributionally robust optimization, sensitivity models.
result Sharp bounds on average treatment effects under distributional assumptions.
Adapts Bayesian optimization for uncertain outcomes using stochastic sampling.
problem Optimizing with uncertain or stochastic outcomes in scientific and engineering problems.
method Proposes SSBO, a new framework that handles uncertainty and myopic decision making.
result SSBO techniques effectively optimize standard and applied problems.
Improves CRRR for better mobility analysis with DCTM.
problem Unclear interpretation of RRRX parameters.
method Uses DCTM for conditional ranks, cross-fitting, and asymptotic theory.
result Clearer interpretation and improved accuracy in mobility analysis.
PGAE uses predictions to guide active experimentation.
problem Efficiently guiding experimental sampling based on predictions.
method PGAE framework that combines predictions and actual outcomes.
result PGAE achieves asymptotic optimality and efficiency.
Study uses remotely sensed data to infer economic outcomes in experiments and quasi-experiments.
problem Imperfect measurement of economic outcomes by remotely sensed variables.
method Combines experimental and observational data to identify causal parameters, using satellite imagery and mobile phone activity.
result Developed a robust method for n^{-1/2} inference that does not restrict remotely sensed variable processing algorithms.
Estimates RL data for dynamic treatment effects using GMM.
problem Estimating dynamic treatment effects from RL data with nonstationary behavior policies.
method Weighted GMM approach to stabilize variance in adaptive RL settings.
result Valid hypothesis testing and confidence regions for dynamic treatment effects.
New method combines multiple data sources for optimal decision-making with limited outcomes.
problem Optimal decision-making with limited outcome data from multiple heterogeneous sources.
method Calibrated optimal decision-making method leveraging common intermediate outcomes.
result Proposed estimator of conditional mean outcome is asymptotically normal and more efficient.
Deep neural networks for ordinal outcomes combining image and tabular data.
problem Lack of interpretable models for ordinal outcomes in mixed data types.
method Ordinal Neural Network Transformation Models (ONTRAMs) integrating DL and classical ordinal regression.
result ONTRAMs achieve performance equivalent to standard multi-class DL models but are faster and more interpretable.
The paper identifies the best treatment to maximize NDPO, a key outcome in causal mediation analysis.
problem Identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO) in causal mediation analysis.
method Developed a fixed-confidence best-arm identification (BAI) algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop (TaS) framework, using a cutting-set method to solve a semi-infinite optimization problem.
result The proposed algorithm achieves sample-efficient identification with a high-probability correctness guarantee and asymptotic optimality.
A new method removes biases in data integration by using surrogate control outcomes.
problem Data integration methods can be biased due to data-dependent processes.
method Post-integrated inference method using surrogate control outcomes to account for latent heterogeneity.
result The method provides consistent and efficient estimators under minimal assumptions and potential misspecifications.
This review explores ML in predicting team sport outcomes, identifying successful strategies and themes.
problem Predicting outcomes in team sports using machine learning.
method Survey of studies from 1996 to 2019, analyzing ML algorithms and their accuracies.
result Identifies common themes and strategies for future research in predicting team sport outcomes.
Sequential decision making for lifetime maximization is a critical problem in many real-world applications, such as medical treatment and portfolio selection. In these applications, a "reneging" phenomenon, where participants may disengage from future interactions after observing an unsatisfiable outcome, is rather pre…
Predictive process monitoring is a family of techniques to analyze events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict the future state or the final outcome of running process instances. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a process instance, the likelihood …
In treatment allocation problems the individuals to be treated often arrive sequentially. We study a problem in which the policy maker is not only interested in the expected cumulative welfare but is also concerned about the uncertainty/risk of the treatment outcomes. At the outset, the total number of treatment assign…
Achilles Tendon Rupture (ATR) is one of the typical soft tissue injuries. Rehabilitation after such a musculoskeletal injury remains a prolonged process with a very variable outcome. Accurately predicting rehabilitation outcome is crucial for treatment decision support. However, it is challenging to train an automatic …
New insights into how to inspect and learn from multi-stage processes and AI reasoning.
problem Understanding how to attribute outcomes to early stages in multi-stage operations and AI reasoning.
method Information-theoretic analysis and mathematical proofs of four key results.
result Uniform checkpoint spacing is minimax-optimal for inspection design under homogeneous signal attenuation.
Proposes a robust method for predicting missing outcomes in covariate shift adaptation.
problem Predicting missing outcomes in test data with covariate shift.
method Doubly robust estimator for covariate shift adaptation via importance weighting, incorporating an additional estimator for the regression function.
result Shows robustness against density-ratio estimation errors, maintaining consistency if either estimator is consistent.
Develops a Causal Transformer for estimating counterfactual outcomes from longitudinal data.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is challenging due to complex, long-range dependencies.
method Combines three transformer subnetworks with separate inputs for time-varying covariates, previous treatments, and previous outcomes into a joint network with in-between cross-attentions. Uses a custom, end-to-end training procedure with a counterfactual domain confusion loss to address confounding bias.
result Achieves superior performance over current baselines in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Boosting algorithms improve estimation of personalized treatment rules.
problem Estimating optimal personalized treatment rules in clinical settings.
method Additive regression trees with boosting technique based on XGBoost.
result Efficient and accurate estimation of complex treatment rules.
Outcome regressed on class labels identified by unsupervised clustering is custom in many applications. However, it is common to ignore the misclassification of class labels caused by the learning algorithm, which potentially leads to serious bias of the estimated effect parameters. Due to its generality we suggest to …
Develops a new multivariate regression model for complex outcomes.
problem Flexible, heterogeneous, and residual-dependent multivariate regression problems.
method MultiVCBART framework with Graphical Horseshoe priors.
result Empirically outperforms existing models on sparse, high-dimensional datasets.