A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study uses Kalman-Filter to assess market efficiency in major stock markets.
In this paper, we revisit the Kalman filter theory. After giving the intuition on a simplified financial markets example, we revisit the maths underlying it. We then show that Kalman filter can be presented in a very different fashion using graphical models. This enables us to establish the connection between Kalman fi…
Study improves queue length estimation from connected vehicles by filtering parameters.
Matched filters reveal optimal normalization methods for different market participants.
Improved volatility estimation using SV-PF-RNN.
This paper presents a novel adaptive-filter approach for predicting assets on the stock markets. Concepts are introduced here, which allow understanding this method and computing of the corresponding forecast. This approach is applied, as an example, through the prediction over the actual valuation of the PETR3 shares …
Simplicial persistence measures financial market dynamics, revealing long-term structure evolution.
Filters on order flow improve short-term market directionality.
Researchers adaptively analyze market regimes to reveal investor behavior shifts.
Paper proposes an EKF for estimating time-varying market efficiency.
We propose a new heavy-tailed distribution --- Gaussian-Chain (GC) distribution, which is inspirited by the hierarchical structures prevailing in social organizations. We determine the mean, variance and kurtosis of the Gaussian-Chain distribution to show its heavy-tailed property, and compute the tail distribution tab…
New method quantifies market shocks and their effects.
MoE-F combines LLMs online for better time-series prediction.
Hybrid method uses LLM to filter lead-lag relationships in prediction markets.
In most illiquid markets, there is no obvious proxy for the market price of an asset. The European corporate bond market is an archetypal example of such an illiquid market where mid-prices can only be estimated with a statistical model. In this OTC market, dealers / market makers only have access, indeed, to partial i…
A Kalman filter reduces valuation risk in business valuation models.
Study optimizes financial strategies in markets with uncertain drift.
We consider optimal investment problems for a diffusion market model with non-observable random drifts that evolve as an Ito's process. Admissible strategies do not use direct observations of the market parameters, but rather use historical stock prices. For a non-linear problem with a general performance criterion, th…
We study the price-setting problem of market makers under risk neutrality and perfect competition in continuous time. Thereby we follow the classic Glosten-Milgrom model that defines bid and ask prices as expectations of a true value of the asset given the market makers' partial information that includes the customers …
This paper presents an exclusive classification of the largest crashes in Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), SP500 and NASDAQ in the past century. Crashes are objectively defined as the top-rank filtered drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum disregarding noise fluctuations), where the …
Study optimal trading strategies with expert signals in a hidden Gaussian drift market.
Self-organized criticality has been claimed to play an important role in many natural and social systems. In the present work we empirically investigate the relevance of this theory to stock-market dynamics. Avalanches in stock-market indices are identified using a multi-scale wavelet-filtering analysis designed to rem…
This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving at the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Dr…
Following the approach of standard filtering theory, we analyse investor-valuation of firms, when these are modelled as geometric-Brownian state processes that are privately and partially observed, at random (Poisson) times, by agents. Tasked with disclosing forecast values, agents are able purposefully to withhold the…
This paper uses deep RL to optimize market quotes from LOB data.
The Moscow Stock Exchange was inefficient for most of 2012-2021.
Study finds non-monotonic Value of Information in dynamic multi-market monopoly.
Adaptive market maker curves minimize arbitrage losses in DeFi.
Many businesses are using recommender systems for marketing outreach. Recommendation algorithms can be either based on content or driven by collaborative filtering. We study different ways to incorporate content information directly into the matrix factorization approach of collaborative filtering. These content-booste…
Study uses neural networks to filter financial spillovers from noise.
We discovered that past changes in the market correlation structure are significantly related with future changes in the market volatility. By using correlation-based information filtering networks we device a new tool for forecasting the market volatility changes. In particular, we introduce a new measure, the "correl…
The MAXFLAT low-pass filter improves factor adjustment for better portfolio performance in China's stock market.
Adaptive Heston model calibration using PCRLB and switching filters.
We consider the problem of maximizing expected utility for a power investor who can allocate his wealth in a stock, a defaultable security, and a money market account. The dynamics of these security prices are governed by geometric Brownian motions modulated by a hidden continuous time finite state Markov chain. We red…
The paper models asset pricing in a partially observed market using mean field game theory and exponential quadratic Gaussian framework.
We propose a novel method to quantify the clustering behavior in a complex time series and apply it to a high-frequency data of the financial markets. We find that regardless of used data sets, all data exhibits the volatility clustering properties, whereas those which filtered the volatility clustering effect by using…
Large and stable indices of the world wide stock markets such as NYSE and SP 500 together with NASDAQ -- the index representing markets of new trends, and WIG -- the index of the local stock market of Eastern Europe, are considered. Due to the relation between artificial insymmetrised patterns (AIP) and time series, st…
Numerous kinds of uncertainties may affect an economy, e.g. economic, political, and environmental ones. We model the aggregate impact by the uncertainties on an economy and its associated financial market by randomised mixtures of Lévy processes. We assume that market participants observe the randomised mixtures only …
We discuss some methods to quantitatively investigate the properties of correlation matrices. Correlation matrices play an important role in portfolio optimization and in several other quantitative descriptions of asset price dynamics in financial markets. Specifically, we discuss how to define and obtain hierarchical …
Adaptive filters are applied in several electronic and communication devices like smartphones, advanced headphones, DSP chips, smart antenna, and teleconference systems. Also, they have application in many areas such as system identification, channel equalization, noise reduction, echo cancellation, interference cancel…
Unified approach solves Kyle model with dynamic information.
The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.
The paper combines supervised and unsupervised learning to predict financial market movements.
A guide to using low-pass graph filters for network data.
We formulate and analyze an inverse problem using derivatives prices to obtain an implied filtering density on volatility's hidden state. Stochastic volatility is the unobserved state in a hidden Markov model (HMM) and can be tracked using Bayesian filtering. However, derivative data can be considered as conditional ex…
Stock price movement reveals complex interdependencies that are simplified through linear correlation.
Study on cryptocurrency market correlations at various time scales.
Study causal financial signals for non-stationary markets, improving short-term forecasts.