New method improves knockoff filter for correlated predictors.
problem Improving power of knockoff filters for correlated designs.
method Conditional Independence knockoff procedure for Gaussian tree graphical models.
result Conditional Independence knockoff outperforms sophisticated methods.
Recursive filtering predicts wireless interference levels accurately.
problem Predicting interference in wireless networks.
method Designing a recursive predictor using Kalman filtering and ARMA model.
result Good accuracy of predicted interference values compared to true values.
Kernel Three-Pass Regression Filter improves forecasting efficiency for nonlinear dependencies.
problem Forecasting with high-dimensional predictors and latent factors.
method Developed a new estimator, Kernel Three-Pass Regression Filter (K3PRF), to address nonlinear dependencies.
result Empirically shows significant improvement in long-term forecasting performance.
This paper presents a novel adaptive-filter approach for predicting assets on the stock markets. Concepts are introduced here, which allow understanding this method and computing of the corresponding forecast. This approach is applied, as an example, through the prediction over the actual valuation of the PETR3 shares …
A new knockoff statistic using conditional prediction function improves variable selection in complex models.
problem Controlling false discovery rate in complex models with nonlinear relationships.
method Introducing a knockoff statistic based on the conditional prediction function for use with machine learning models.
result The CPF statistics provide superior power in detecting prognostic variables over existing knockoff statistics.
Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-t residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach are particularly recommended. This study introduces yet another VaR predictor, …
Proposes a copula-based filter for diabetes risk prediction.
problem Feature selection for robust and interpretable predictive modeling in medicine, especially for extreme patient strata.
method Copula-based supervised filter using Gumbel-copula implied upper-tail concordance score (lambda U).
result The proposed filter outperforms standard filters and provides clinically coherent predictors.
The paper learns an autoregressive filter for unknown dynamical systems with robust guarantees.
problem Learning optimal predictions in an unknown dynamical system.
method Directly learns an autoregressive filter using an L∞-based objective, regressing on both inputs and outputs. result The algorithm has optimal sample complexity in terms of the rollout length.
Unified framework for self-supervised learning via latent distribution matching.
problem Lack of a unifying theoretical framework for diverse SSL methods.
method Casting SSL as latent distribution matching (LDM): maximizing alignment and uniformity.
result Derives a Bayesian filtering model and proves identifiable latent representations.
Efficient algorithm predicts unknown linear systems with long-term memory.
problem Predicting unknown and partially observed linear dynamical systems with long-term memory.
method Bounding the generalized Kolmogorov width of the Kalman filter model using spectral methods and conducting tight convex relaxation.
result Competes with Kalman filter in hindsight with only logarithmic regret.
MoE-F combines LLMs online for better time-series prediction.
problem Combining multiple LLMs for online time-series prediction.
method Time-adaptive stochastic filtering techniques to combine experts.
result MoE-F achieves 17% absolute and 48.5% relative F1 measure improvement.
We study trend filtering, a recently proposed tool of Kim et al. [SIAM Rev. 51 (2009) 339-360] for nonparametric regression. The trend filtering estimate is defined as the minimizer of a penalized least squares criterion, in which the penalty term sums the absolute kth order discrete derivatives over the input points…
Paper achieves logarithmic regret for online Kalman filter learning.
problem Predicting observations from an unknown, partially observed linear system with stochastic noise.
method Online least-squares algorithm exploiting the approximate linearity of Kalman filter predictions.
result Achieves regret of order poly(log(N)) with high probability.
This paper tackles hidden state inference for HMMs using particle filtering.
problem Inference for hidden states under HMMs is challenging due to unavailable true labels.
method Adaptive conformal inference framework using particle filtering.
result The framework produces prediction sets with specific aggregated coverage levels.
Paper presents content-based models for game recommendation in cold start scenarios.
problem Cold start problem in game recommendation where new games and players have no historical data.
method Uses survey data to develop content-based interaction models that generalize to new games, players, and both.
result Content models outperform collaborative filtering in predicting new interactions.
RI-based variable ranking and selection outperforms lasso in high-dimensional datasets.
problem Challenges in variable selection and model creation with correlated predictors.
method RI measures for feature ranking and selection, including CRI.Z.
result RI-based methods outperform lasso in high-dimensional datasets, especially with correlated predictors.
AutoSF automatically designs scoring functions for knowledge graphs, outperforming human-designed ones.
problem Designing effective scoring functions for knowledge graphs is challenging due to complex relation patterns.
method AutoML techniques to automatically design scoring functions, using a unified representation and efficient search algorithms.
result AutoSF-designed scoring functions outperform human-designed ones on benchmark data sets.
Paper proposes a self-training method to generate molecular targets.
problem Challenges in training generative models for complex molecular design.
method Iterative target augmentation using a property predictor and EM iterations.
result Significant gains in molecular design, outperforming previous methods.
In this paper the extended model of Minority game (MG), incorporating variable number of agents and therefore called Grand Canonical, is used for prediction. We proved that the best MG-based predictor is constituted by a tremendously degenerated system, when only one agent is involved. The prediction is the most effici…
FILTER model uses fusion penalized logistic threshold regression for high-dimensional data with unknown cut points.
problem Modeling high-dimensional data with unknown cut points and binary responses.
method Fusion penalized logistic threshold regression (FILTER) model with fused lasso penalty for variable selection.
result Established non-asymptotic error bounds for coefficient estimation and model selection consistency.
Develops minibatch stochastic proximal gradient for large-scale learning models.
problem Finding optimal predictors with complex regularizers in large-scale learning models.
method Minibatch variants of stochastic proximal gradient algorithm for composite objective functions.
result Minibatch size N after O(Nε1) iterations achieves ε−suboptimality in expected quadratic distance. We consider efficient implementations of the generalized lasso dual path algorithm of Tibshirani and Taylor (2011). We first describe a generic approach that covers any penalty matrix D and any (full column rank) matrix X of predictor variables. We then describe fast implementations for the special cases of trend filte…
We study the problem of estimating the parameters of a regression model from a set of observations, each consisting of a response and a predictor. The response is assumed to be related to the predictor via a regression model of unknown parameters. Often, in such models the parameters to be estimated are assumed to be c…
We discovered that past changes in the market correlation structure are significantly related with future changes in the market volatility. By using correlation-based information filtering networks we device a new tool for forecasting the market volatility changes. In particular, we introduce a new measure, the "correl…
New method linearizes nonlinear coupled oscillators on graphs.
problem Predicting global synchronization in nonlinear coupled oscillators on graphs.
method Latent dynamic filters learned through supervised matrix factorization.
result Latent dynamics filters enable effective prediction of global synchronization.
Study causal financial signals for non-stationary markets, improving short-term forecasts.
problem Short-term forecasting in non-stationary financial markets under causal constraints.
method Construct causal signals from heterogeneous micro-features using causal centering, linear aggregation, Kalman filter, and forward-like operator.
result Causally constructed observables can exhibit substantial economic relevance in specific regimes but degrade under regime shifts.
Sparsity-promoting priors have become increasingly popular over recent years due to an increased number of regression and classification applications involving a large number of predictors. In time series applications where observations are collected over time, it is often unrealistic to assume that the underlying spar…
The problem of forecasting conditional probabilities of the next event given the past is considered in a general probabilistic setting. Given an arbitrary (large, uncountable) set C of predictors, we would like to construct a single predictor that performs asymptotically as well as the best predictor in C, on any data.…
New bounds explain deterministic non-smooth deep nets without large Lipschitz constants.
problem Challenges in explaining generalization of deterministic non-smooth deep nets.
method De-randomized PAC-Bayes margin bounds for deterministic non-convex and non-smooth predictors.
result New bounds avoid large Lipschitz constants, providing generalization guarantees.
This paper proposes a method to reduce complexity in GLMs with categorical predictors.
problem Wasteful, hard-to-interpret, and prone to overfitting of traditional one-hot encoding for high-cardinality categorical predictors.
method Clustering categories of categorical predictors through a numerical method that preserves or improves accuracy while reducing the number of coefficients.
result Clustering categories of categorical predictors reduces complexity substantially without harming accuracy.
We consider a collection of prediction experiments, which are clustered in the sense that groups of experiments ex- hibit similar relationship between the predictor and response variables. The experiment clusters as well as the regres- sion relationships are unknown. The regression relation- ships define the experiment…
Support vector machines (SVMs) rely on the inherent geometry of a data set to classify training data. Because of this, we believe SVMs are an excellent candidate to guide the development of an analytic feature selection algorithm, as opposed to the more commonly used heuristic methods. We propose a filter-based feature…
The article compares predictor importance in classification problems with categorical outcomes.
problem Comparing predictor importance in classification problems with categorical response variables.
method The approach is based on the categorical Gini correlation (CGC) and tests differences in CGCs across predictor groups.
result The proposed methodology accommodates predictors of arbitrary and unequal dimensions and allows for dependence between predictor groups.
Paper proposes a sparse synthetic control method to select important predictors.
problem Choosing and weighting predictors affects synthetic control estimator performance.
method Sparse synthetic control procedure that penalizes predictors, derived in a linear factor model.
result Sparse synthetic control achieves lower bias and better post-treatment performance.
This paper presents Sparse Partitioning, a Bayesian method for identifying predictors that either individually or in combination with others affect a response variable. The method is designed for regression problems involving binary or tertiary predictors and allows the number of predictors to exceed the size of the sa…
WeakNAS uses a set of weaker predictors to find top architectures with fewer samples.
problem Finding the best neural architecture with heavy computation costs.
method Proposes a paradigm shift from fitting the whole architecture space to progressively fitting a search path through a set of weaker predictors.
result WeakNAS produces coarse-to-fine iteration to gradually refine the ranking of sampling space, requiring fewer samples to find top-performance architectures.
Proposes a method to create fair, robust predictors that remain consistent across different scenarios.
problem Creating fair and robust machine learning models that behave consistently across different scenarios.
method Graphical criteria and a model-agnostic framework called CIP based on HSCIC.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of CIP in enforcing counterfactual invariance across various datasets.
This paper continues study, both theoretical and empirical, of the method of Venn prediction, concentrating on binary prediction problems. Venn predictors produce probability-type predictions for the labels of test objects which are guaranteed to be well calibrated under the standard assumption that the observations ar…
Derives bounds for deterministic predictors using smooth loss functions.
problem Generalizing probabilistic predictors to deterministic ones.
method Exploits smoothness properties of loss and predictor classes, controlling the Jensen gap class through Rademacher complexity.
result Derives bounds for deterministic predictors involving flatness quantities from Jacobians and Hessians.
Study shows competition feedback can make ML predictors biased towards specific user groups.
problem How competition affects machine learning predictors and user prediction quality.
method Flexible model of competing ML predictors, empirical and mathematical analysis.
result Competition causes predictors to specialize for specific sub-populations at the cost of general performance.
Study on merging predictors in causal and anticausal directions using CMAXENT.
problem Comparing merging predictors in causal and anticausal directions.
method Using CMAXENT as inductive bias, study differences in merging predictors.
result CMAXENT solution reduces to logistic regression in causal direction and LDA in anticausal direction.
Hybrid quantum-classical model boosts S&P 500 prediction accuracy to 60.14%.
problem Challenges in financial market prediction, especially high noise and non-stationarity.
method Combines quantum sentiment analysis, Decision Transformer, and model selection strategies.
result Achieved 60.14% directional accuracy on S&P 500, a 3.10% improvement.
Meta-learning improves adaptability across diverse tasks.
problem Building efficient strategies that adapt to new tasks.
method Memory-based meta-learning, Bayesian framework, state-machine of sufficient statistics.
result Meta-learned strategies are near-optimal and efficient.
Deep networks retain initial bias after training, affecting generalization.
problem Understanding how much initial bias in neural networks survives training.
method Introduced initialization memory to measure initial bias's survival.
result SGD can preserve initial bias, while Adam-family methods erase it.
Paper proves spectral filters can be transferred between graphs.
problem Proving spectral filters can be transferred between graphs.
method Introducing the Cayley smoothness space and proving filters in this space are linearly stable.
result Graph spectral filters are transferable if they are in the Cayley smoothness space.
VEST automates feature engineering for time series forecasting.
problem Challenges in time series forecasting with improved performance.
method VEST combines auto-regression with statistical summarization of recent past dynamics.
result VEST significantly improves forecasting performance.
Paper introduces SUEL model for integrating predictors without labeled data.
problem Combining predictors with unknown accuracy and high correlation.
method Structured unsupervised ensemble learning (SUEL) with correlation-based decomposition algorithms.
result Efficient integration of dependent predictors without labeled data.
Improves active learning by dynamically selecting the best acquisition function.
problem Lack of a universally successful acquisition heuristic in active learning.
method Trains an acquisition function as a predictor using reinforcement feedback.
result Always invents a superior acquisition function or adapts to the best heuristic.