arXiv research

Study examines Fed's pandemic communication strategies.

The model of this paper gives a convenient strategy that a bank in the federal funds market can use in order to maximize its profit in a contemporaneous reserve requirement (CRR) regime. The reserve requirements are determined by the demand deposit process, modelled as a Brownian motion with drift. We propose a new mod…

In the aftermath of the burst of the ``new economy'' bubble in 2000, the Federal Reserve aggressively reduced short-term rates yields in less than two years from 6.5% to 1.25% in an attempt to coax forth a stronger recovery of the US economy. But, there is growing apprehension that this is creating a new bubble in real…

A new validation scheme improves Federated Learning performance.

Commercial banks and other depository institutions in some countries are required to hold in reserve against deposits made by their customers at their Central Bank or Federal Reserve. Although some countries have been eliminated it, this requirement is useful as one of many Central Bank's regulation made to control rat…

Study improves U.S. monetary policy forecasting by integrating text and data.

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in…

GPT model shows promise in financial market predictions.

There is an extensive historical dataset on real GDP per capita prepared by Angus Maddison. This dataset covers the period since 1870 with continuous annual estimates in developed countries. All time series for individual economies have a clear structural break between 1940 and 1950. The behavior before 1940 and after …

This research introduces a control system for managing DeFi money supply.

I studied the convergence of regional house prices to national prices in USA by analyzing time-series of house price indices of 9 Census Divisions. I found the evidence of the convergence in some parts of the country using asymmetric unit root tests. The fact that the evidence of the convergence is not present in large…

Stablecoins are reshaping global monetary systems, offering hybrid structures with public and private monies.

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analogue of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify th…

Model estimates foreign exchange reserve compositions of undisclosed central banks.

GAN improves financial risk prediction by generating synthetic minority events.

Overprocuring reserves can improve network efficiency by using excess reserves for congestion management.

New method for individual claims reserving using machine learning.

Large corporate credit models may be adapted for small business risk assessment.

Study examines value relevance of oil and gas reserve disclosures in London Stock Exchange.

RL-CVaR model improves insurance reserving under economic stress.

Paper proposes a new reserving model using machine learning techniques.

New method simplifies individual claims reserving.

Chain-ladder reserving is sensitive to outliers, leading to unreliable estimates.

Model predicts individual insurance claim reserves using activation patterns.

New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.

Many online companies sell advertisement space in second-price auctions with reserve. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic method to learn a profitable strategy to set the reserve price. We use historical auction data with features to fit a predictor of the best reserve price. This problem is delicate - the struct…

We introduce a new approach to incorporate uncertainty into the decision to invest in a commodity reserve. The investment is an irreversible one-off capital expenditure, after which the investor receives a stream of cashflow from extracting the commodity and selling it on the spot market. The investor is exposed to pri…

This paper presents empirical evidence using recently developed techniques in econophysics suggesting that the degree of long-range dependence in interest rates depends on the conduct of monetary policy. We study the term structure of interest rates for the US and find evidence that global Hurst exponents change dramat…

New model for disability insurance reserving handles delays in claim information.

Case study shows impact of co-optimizing energy and reserve for wind energy.

A new framework combines multiple loss reserving models for better predictive performance.

In this paper the dependence of wealth distribution and the velocity of money on the required reserve ratio is examined based on a random transfer model of money and computer simulations. A fractional reserve banking system is introduced to the model where money creation can be achieved by bank loans and the monetary a…

Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected during a claim's development over time. We present the hierarchical reserving mod…

In this article we consider the parameter risk in the context of internal modelling of the reserve risk under Solvency II. We discuss two opposed perspectives on parameter uncertainty and point out that standard methods of classical reserving focusing on the estimation error of claims reserves are in general not approp…

The paper analyzes risk measures and optimal reserve allocation strategies.

Framework insures AI actions with reserve capital, preventing loss.

Paper proposes a method to estimate project cost contingency reserves considering various types of uncertainty.

A method for analysing the risk of taking a too low reserve level by use of Chain Ladder method is developed. We give an answer to the question of how much safety loading in terms of the Chain Ladder standard error has to be added to the Chain Ladder reserve in order to reach a specified security level in loss reservin…

This paper investigates dividend optimization of an insurance corporation under a more realistic model which takes into consideration refinancing or capital injections. The model follows the compound Poisson framework with credit interest for positive reserve, and debit interest for negative reserve. Ruin occurs when t…

Optimizes reserve prices for first-price auctions to maximize revenue.

This paper examines SVB's failure and its impact on bank stocks.

In this paper we examine the claims reserving problem using Tweedie's compound Poisson model. We develop the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approaches to fit the model and then compare the estimated models under different scenarios. The key point we demonstrate relates to the compar…

Improved pricing method for illiquid assets using Lambert function.

Life insurance cash flows become reserve dependent when contract conditions are modified during the contract term on condition that actuarial equivalence is maintained. As a result, insurance cash flows and prospective reserves depend on each other in a circular way, and it is a non-trivial problem to solve that circul…

We examine the problem of dynamic reserving for risk in multiple currencies under a general coherent risk measure. The reserver requires to hedge risk in a time-consistent manner by trading in baskets of currencies. We show that reserving portfolios in multiple currencies $\mathbf{V}$ are time-consistent when (and only…

Develops a new GLM framework for claims reserving with adaptive estimation.

Quantum computers can optimize foreign exchange reserves management.

Reinforcement learning improves insurance claims reserving by learning from all claim trajectories.