Proposes a method to handle sparse multiway count data with false zeros using zero-truncated Poisson regression.
problem Handling sparse multiway count data corrupted by false zeros.
method Zero-truncated Poisson regression with tensor completion.
result Accurate estimation of multiway count data from approximately IR2log22(I) non-zero counts. We study the Thompson sampling algorithm in an adversarial setting, specifically, for adversarial bit prediction. We characterize the bit sequences with the smallest and largest expected regret. Among sequences of length T with k<2T zeros, the sequences of largest regret consist of alternating zeros and …
A new metric, Weighted Regret, unifies FDR and power evaluation in online multiple testing.
problem The asymmetric costs of false positives and false negatives in automated pipelines.
method Introducing Weighted Regret and Decoupled-OMT (DOMT) to unify FDR and power evaluation.
result DOMT achieves an order-optimal sublinear mitigation of threshold depletion in bursty environments.
Information systems have widely been the target of malware attacks. Traditional signature-based malicious program detection algorithms can only detect known malware and are prone to evasion techniques such as binary obfuscation, while behavior-based approaches highly rely on the malware training samples and incur prohi…
In high dimensional settings where a small number of regressors are expected to be important, the Lasso estimator can be used to obtain a sparse solution vector with the expectation that most of the non-zero coefficients are associated with true signals. While several approaches have been developed to control the inclu…
A new method detects and removes false trailing balances in credit data.
problem False trailing balances in credit data corrupt risk event timing.
method TruEnd-procedure defines and removes false trailing balances.
result Improved accuracy in predicting risk events and reducing credit losses.
Proposes a new feature selection method integrating feature relationships.
problem Feature selection in machine learning models.
method Integrates feature-feature and feature-target relationships via penalized mRMR.
result Correctly identifies inactive features, reducing false discoveries.
Semi-supervised wrapper methods are concerned with building effective supervised classifiers from partially labeled data. Though previous works have succeeded in some fields, it is still difficult to apply semi-supervised wrapper methods to practice because the assumptions those methods rely on tend to be unrealistic i…
Neoclassical economics has two theories of competition between profit-maximizing firms (Marshallian and Cournot-Nash) that start from different premises about the degree of strategic interaction between firms, yet reach the same result, that market price falls as the number of firms in an industry increases. The Marsha…
The high-dimensional linear model y=Xβ0+ε is considered and the focus is put on the problem of recovering the support S0 of the sparse vector β0. We introduce Lasso-Zero, a new ℓ1-based estimator whose novelty resides in an "overfit, then threshold" paradigm and the use of noise dictionaries concate…
Solves selecting the best optimizing system problems.
problem Selecting the best system among contenders with unknown performance.
method Adaptive algorithms integrating stochastic gradient descent and sequential elimination.
result Exponential rates of convergence to zero for false selection probability.
Online monitor detects classifier drift and adapts predictions.
problem Silent degradation of classifier accuracy under distributional shift.
method Sliding-window KS statistic with calibrated alarm thresholds.
result 86.6% valid detection across various shift conditions.
The PC algorithm allows investigators to estimate a complete partially directed acyclic graph (CPDAG) from a finite dataset, but few groups have investigated strategies for estimating and controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) of the edges in the CPDAG. In this paper, we introduce PC with p-values (PC-p), a fast al…
New method for sparse data using L1-NMF with improved sparsity control.
problem Sparse data with false zeros and heavy-tailed noise.
method Component-wise L1-NMF with weighted penalization and coordinate descent.
result Effective in handling sparse data with false zeros.
New method controls false discoveries in financial asset pricing.
problem Controlling false discoveries in time series with unknown correlations.
method Double bootstrapping method to control false discovery rate.
result Superior statistical power and controlled false discovery rate.
Study examines flaws in probing LLMs' knowledge and introduces a new method.
problem Flaws in existing methods for probing the veracity of LLMs' internal knowledge.
method sAwMIL (Sparse-Aware Multiple-Instance Learning) combining multiple-instance learning with conformal prediction.
result LLMs encode a third type of signal distinct from true and false.
New methods control false discoveries near the boundary in conformal novelty detection.
problem Over-optimistic assessments near the rejection threshold in conformal novelty detection.
method Support line (SL) correction and alternative procedures to control boundary false discovery rate (bFDR).
result New procedures control the boundary false discovery rate (bFDR) in the conformal setting.
We present conditions under which positive alpha exists in the realm of active portfolio management- in contrast to the controversial result in Jarrow (2010, pg. 20) which implicates delegated portfolio management by surmising that positive alphas are illusionary. Specifically, we show that the critical assumption used…
There are two big unsolved mathematical questions in artificial intelligence (AI): (1) Why is deep learning so successful in classification problems and (2) why are neural nets based on deep learning at the same time universally unstable, where the instabilities make the networks vulnerable to adversarial attacks. We p…
New method controls false edge detections in Gaussian graphical models.
problem High false edge detections in well-established estimators.
method Nodewise variable selection approach to control false discovery rate.
result Significant gain in performance compared to competing methods.
New algorithm optimizes AUC in binary classification and changepoint detection.
problem Difficult to optimize AUC in binary classification and changepoint detection.
method Proposes efficient path-following algorithms for choosing optimal learning rate.
result Proposed line search algorithm computes complete AUM/AUC representation.
New indefinite false theta functions match homological blocks for a specific 3-manifold.
problem Constructing homological blocks for certain 3-manifolds.
method Developing indefinite false theta functions and proving their equivalence to homological blocks.
result Indefinite false theta functions match homological blocks for the Poincaré homology sphere.
Learning a classifier with control on the false-positive rate plays a critical role in many machine learning applications. Existing approaches either introduce prior knowledge dependent label cost or tune parameters based on traditional classifiers, which lack consistency in methodology because they do not strictly adh…
Optimizes latency and false alarm probability in change detection problems.
problem Balancing latency and false alarms in non-stationary environments.
method Develops order-optimal change detectors under specified latency and false alarm levels.
result Derives a universal lower bound on latency and develops order-optimal detectors.
New models extrapolate false alarms in ASV without new data.
problem Reliable extrapolation of false alarm rates in ASV without new speaker data.
method Generative models in ASV score space for arbitrary systems.
result Models accurately extrapolate false alarm rates for large speaker populations.
Private online FDR control for adaptive testing under differential privacy.
problem Controlling false discoveries in adaptive multiple hypothesis testing with privacy constraints.
method Private online algorithms based on non-private results, ensuring privacy and statistical performance.
result Strong guarantees for privacy and statistical performance in FDR and power.
New method calibrates false detection rates in sequential change detection.
problem Challenges in setting time-invariant thresholds for false positives.
method Simulation-based approach to time-varying thresholds.
result Accurately targets desired expected runtime while keeping false positive rate constant.
Nonparametric IPSS selects features with false discovery control.
problem Feature selection in high-dimensional data with theoretical false discovery control.
method Integrated Path Stability Selection (IPSS) applied to nonparametric feature importance scores.
result IPSS accurately controls false discovery rate and detects more true positives than existing methods.
Accurate on-device keyword spotting (KWS) with low false accept and false reject rate is crucial to customer experience for far-field voice control of conversational agents. It is particularly challenging to maintain low false reject rate in real world conditions where there is (a) ambient noise from external sources s…
Paper tackles MIAs vulnerability by controlling FDR, providing guarantees on false discoveries.
problem Vulnerability of deep learning models to membership inference attacks (MIAs).
method Designs a novel membership inference attack method that provides FDR guarantees.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the method in various settings.
Knockoffs method selects financial factors, controlling false discoveries.
problem Controlling false discoveries in financial factor selection.
method Apply knockoff procedure to build fake factors.
result Shows versatility in fund replication and network inference.
Paper proposes knockoff-based methods to simplify deep neural networks by controlling false discovery rates.
problem High-dimensional deep neural networks with many irrelevant parameters and inputs.
method Knockoff methods combined with regularized neural networks for variable screening.
result Proposed algorithms show satisfactory performance in controlling false discovery rates.
Nowadays, advanced intrusion detection systems (IDSs) rely on a combination of anomaly detection and signature-based methods. An IDS gathers observations, analyzes behavioral patterns, and reports suspicious events for further investigation. A notorious issue anomaly detection systems (ADSs) and IDSs face is the possib…
Study controls error rates of binary classifiers using hypothesis testing.
problem Traditional binary classifiers have uncontrolled error rates.
method Combines binary classification with statistical hypothesis testing.
result Trained classifiers can be made to meet target error rate thresholds.
New method controls false discoveries in online testing with deadlines.
problem Controlling false discoveries in online hypothesis testing with decision deadlines.
method Benjamini-Hochberg-type procedure over a moving window of hypotheses with adaptive threshold parameters.
result Controls false discovery rate at every stage and adaptively chosen stopping times.
Efron et al. (2001) proposed empirical Bayes formulation of the frequentist Benjamini and Hochbergs False Discovery Rate method (Benjamini and Hochberg,1995). This article attempts to unify the `two cultures' using concepts of comparison density and distribution function. We have also shown how almost all of the existi…
In this paper Hamiltonian system of time dependent periodic Newton equations is studied. It is shown that for dimensions 3 and higher the following rigidity results holds true: If all the orbits in a neighborhood of infinity are action minimizing then the potential must be constant. This gives a generalization of the…
False negatives hinder adversarial imitation learning, leading to worse performance.
problem False negatives impede the performance of adversarial imitation learning.
method Proposed a method to alleviate the impact of false negatives.
result The method consistently improves sample efficiency by at least an order of magnitude.
Develops robust knockoffs for controlling false discoveries in financial data.
problem Challenges in variable selection with highly correlated data in finance and economics.
method Robustified knockoff framework addressing high dependence and time correlation.
result Identifies new important groups of factors on top of known drivers.
New algorithm for adaptive experimental design in scientific settings.
problem Identifying true positives while controlling false discoveries in adaptive experimental design.
method Provably sample efficient adaptive algorithm for FDR control.
result First provably sample efficient adaptive algorithm for adaptive experimental design.
Paper is withdrawn due to errors (superseded by math.AG/0604303). Formula 6.5 is false. Section 6 is false, and the main statement is true only for bundles B with c1(B) SU(2)-invariant.
Paper withdrawn due to errors (superseded by math.AG/0604303). Proposition 11.4 is false, Section 12 is false, and the main statement is true only for bundles B with c1(B) SU(2)-invariant.
This paper addresses the problem of inferring sparse causal networks modeled by multivariate auto-regressive (MAR) processes. Conditions are derived under which the Group Lasso (gLasso) procedure consistently estimates sparse network structure. The key condition involves a "false connection score." In particular, we sh…
Study optimizes sampling to avoid extreme tail risks in unknown heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Identify optimal alternative with minimal extreme tail risk from unknown heavy-tailed distributions.
method Data-driven sequential sampling policies to maximize likelihood of selecting the optimal alternative.
result Proposed methods outperform existing approaches in identifying the optimal alternative.
Online anomaly detection in surveillance videos with false alarm rate bounds.
problem Lack of theoretical performance analysis and online decision making in anomaly detection.
method Proposes an online anomaly detection method with asymptotic bounds on false alarm rate.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on publicly available data sets, outperforming state-of-the-art algorithms.
Study compares statistical properties and power of divergence measures for credit risk monitoring.
problem Detecting distributional shifts in credit risk models.
method Derives statistical properties and chi-square benchmark values for Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Kullback-Leibler Divergence, demonstrating their applicability in credit risk monitoring.
result Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Kullback-Leibler Divergence follow chi-square distributions and reveal practical trade-offs in minimizing false positives vs. detecting changes.
SDAMI enhances interpretable high-dimensional regression with sparse deep learning and footprint principle.
problem Personalized models for small samples and high-dimensional features with interpretability.
method Sparse Deep Additive Model with Interactions (SDAMI) combining sparsity-driven feature selection and deep subnetworks.
result SDAMI successfully identifies pure interactions with near-zero false positive rates.
The paper develops a method to identify LLM-generated text without training.
problem Identifying LLM-generated text among human-generated content.
method Modeling LLM text as a sequential process and designing zero-shot statistical tests.
result The method can distinguish between text from known LLMs and non-sanctioned models with low false positive rates.