The study finds flaws in methods used to estimate foreign exchange option prices.
problem Flaws in estimating foreign exchange option prices.
method Provided counterexamples of popular FX option interpolation methods.
result Popular FX option interpolation methods fail in certain scenarios.
Model accurately calibrates FX market skew for exotic options.
problem Inconsistent prices from different models for FX derivatives.
method Fully parameterized local volatility model with numerical methods.
result Model provides reliable prices for daily trading.
The paper explains FX option pricing in target zones with non-deterministic short rates.
problem FX option pricing in target zones with non-deterministic short rates.
method Analytical solution of the pricing PDE with series of elementary functions.
result European option prices can be expressed via fast converging series of elementary functions.
We introduce a tractable multi-currency model with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates that takes into account the smile in the FX market and the evolution of yield curves. The pricing of vanilla options on FX rates can be performed effciently through the FFT methodology thanks to the affinit…
Paper proposes methods for pricing FX-linked Bermudan options using quantization.
problem Pricing of foreign exchange (FX) linked long-term Bermudan options.
method Two numerical solution methods based on Product Optimal Quantization.
result Estimation of L2-error and illustration with market examples. Paper extends Lévy models with memory to better price FX double barrier options.
problem Efficiently pricing double barrier options in complex FX models.
method Introduces regime-switching Lévy models with memory and a modified numerical method.
result New models and method improve accuracy of option pricing.
A time series model for the FX dynamics is presented which takes into account structural peculiarities of the market, namely its heterogeneity and an information flow from long to short time horizons. The model emerges from an analogy between FX dynamics and hydrodynamic turbulence. The heterogeneity of the market is m…
A new approach for pricing FX options that uses a single model for all markets.
problem Consistent pricing of FX options across different markets.
method Intermediate currency approach, calibrating to domestic market volatility smile.
result Model automatically reproduces correct foreign market volatility smiles.
Paper examines two methods for FX market volatility modeling.
problem FX market volatility modeling problem.
method Classical econometric GCH and mathematical approaches (SSA, dynamical systems stability analysis).
result Both mathematical tools show promising results in FX market volatility modeling.
Unified pricing method for FX options with barriers.
problem Calculating the value and sensitivities of FX options with barriers.
method Unified Vanna-Volga pricing technique for single and double barrier FX options.
result Derivation of closed formulas for Delta, Vega, Vanna, and Volga.
We study the local volatility function in the Foreign Exchange market where both domestic and foreign interest rates are stochastic. This model is suitable to price long-dated FX derivatives. We derive the local volatility function and obtain several results that can be used for the calibration of this local volatility…
Paper proposes an efficient method for pricing FX options with stochastic volatility and interest rates.
problem Pricing foreign exchange options in a model with stochastic interest rates and volatility.
method Developed a RBF--FD method to solve the associated PDE numerically.
result Demonstrates efficiency in terms of accuracy and computational cost for pricing FX options.
The paper models FX option skew using SLV models with stochastic correlation and jumps.
problem Stochastic skew of FX options.
method Created SLV models with stochastic correlation and jumps, using Levy processes for drivers and a new finite-difference scheme for calibration.
result Demonstrated capacity of the model in modeling stochastic skew.
Modeling CDS and FX devaluation effects for emerging markets.
problem Risk of dramatic FX devaluation during default events in emerging markets.
method Reduced form framework for credit risk with explicit FX dynamics, including a default-driven jump.
result Perceived risks of devaluation can induce significant basis spreads between domestic and foreign CDS quotes.
Develops a new model for multi-currency volatility using CBI-time-changed Lévy processes.
problem Capturing the risk characteristics of FX markets and their self-exciting dynamics.
method CBI-time-changed Lévy processes, affine processes, Fourier methods, deep-learning techniques.
result An analytically tractable model with a semi-closed pricing formula for currency options.
This paper offers a mathematical framework to manage inventory risk in FX cash markets.
problem Inventory risk in FX cash markets due to flow uncertainty and volatility.
method Mathematical framework and approximation techniques for scalability.
result Maximizing expected profit while controlling inventory risk.
Investigates consistency of FX rate dynamics under inversion.
problem Consistency of jump-diffusion dynamics for FX rates under inversion.
method Calibrated Heston and SABR models, analyzed jumps in domestic and foreign measures.
result Determines conditions for consistency in FX rate dynamics under inversion.
There is intense interest in understanding the stochastic and dynamical properties of the global Foreign Exchange (FX) market, whose daily transactions exceed one trillion US dollars. This is a formidable task since the FX market is characterized by a web of fluctuating exchange rates, with subtle inter-dependencies wh…
We introduce a novel multi-factor Heston-based stochastic volatility model, which is able to reproduce consistently typical multi-dimensional FX vanilla markets, while retaining the (semi)-analytical tractability typical of affine models and relying on a reasonable number of parameters. A successful joint calibration t…
New FX option interpolations impact implied volatilities.
problem Different interpolations of FX option quotes lead to varying implied volatilities.
method Analysis of various exact interpolations of broker quotes.
result Different interpolations result in different implied volatilities.
Develops formulas for pricing European quanto options in a local volatility FX-LIBOR model.
problem Pricing European quanto options in a local volatility FX-LIBOR model with skew/smile effects.
method Derives dynamics of foreign LIBOR rates, considers local volatility models, uses expansions around log-normal dynamics.
result Derives approximation formulas of Black-Scholes type with accurate error estimation.
Method to decompose portfolio performance into FX, interest rate, carry, and residual market risks.
problem Understanding the sources of portfolio performance.
method Decomposition of portfolio PnL into four components.
result Demonstrated usefulness of the method through fund performance analysis.
WATTNet models FX trading tenor selection using spatio-temporal data.
problem NDF tenor selection in FX trading with long-term planning.
method WaveATTentionNet (WATTNet) for spatio-temporal modeling of multivariate time series.
result Significant positive ROI in all NDF markets, outperforming baselines.
AWARE-FX uses AI to audit foreign-exchange risk disclosures in corporate reports.
problem Weakly structured foreign-exchange risk disclosures in corporate reports.
method Combines lexicon, logic, encoders, and aggregation methods to convert text into traceable measures.
result FinBERT outperforms in most comparisons, improving F1 scores by up to 0.077.
New model explains CDS price discrepancies in foreign and domestic economies.
problem Explaining discrepancies in Quanto CDS prices.
method Proposes a model with four stochastic factors and jumps-at-default, derives 4D PDEs, solves numerically.
result Qualitative explanation of CDS price discrepancies.
FX spreads reduced with Last Look option, affecting market equilibrium.
problem Impact of Last Look option on FX market spreads and equilibrium.
method Assumed risk-neutral brokers, analyzed with and without Last Look option.
result Last Look option reduces spreads, can lead to market coexistence or survival of one venue.
Develops optimal currency hedging strategy for fund managers considering liquidity risk.
problem Choosing optimal foreign exchange (FX) hedge tenors to maximize carry returns within liquidity constraints.
method Time-dispersing total hedge value into future time buckets, maximizing FX carry benefit while adhering to liquidity risk metric (CFaR).
result Hedging strategy operates within liquidity budget, demonstrating practical insights for fund managers.
This paper offers a framework for FX dealers to decide between internalizing and externalizing their market making to balance risk control and costs.
problem FX dealers face risk from flow uncertainty and need to decide on internalization vs. externalization strategies.
method Develops an optimal control framework that balances pricing and hedging strategies.
result Provides insights into the trade-off between risk control and transaction costs in market making.
This paper improves VAE-based imputation of FX implied volatilities, reducing errors and handling uncertainty.
problem Imputing missing implied volatilities for FX options.
method Modified VAE architecture and handling uncertainty.
result Significant performance improvements, nearly halving error in low missingness regimes.
This paper compares hedging strategies for pegged FX markets using a RS model.
problem Hedging performance in pegged foreign exchange markets.
method Regime switching model, Fourier approach for calibration, exact and approximated delta hedging.
result Approximated RS delta hedge is a viable alternative to the exact RS delta hedge and significantly faster.
TDA improves FX clustering quality over traditional methods.
problem Capturing complex currency co-movements in FX markets.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) compared to traditional statistical methods on monthly FX returns.
result TDA-based clustering yields more compact and well-separated clusters.
New technique identifies lead-lag relationships in FX market during pandemic.
problem Identifying lead-lag relationships in financial markets, especially during crises.
method Dynamic Programming technique for finding optimal lead-lag path, using a loose metric.
result The proposed technique gives the best results in identifying statistically significant paths and closest forecasts.
Simple method solves Quanto Skew problem.
problem Quanto Skew problem in Equities and FX.
method Analytical method that accommodates Equity and FX volatility skew.
result Highly efficient and fast performance.
The paper presents a pricing framework for cross-currency collateralized products, addressing funding costs and market uncertainties.
problem Funding costs and market uncertainties in cross-currency collateralized products.
method General derivation of arbitrage-free pricing framework, including impact of foreign currency funding.
result Pricing framework for cross-currency swaps under different market situations.
Modeling exchange rates and options using entropic dynamics.
problem Modeling the dynamics of exchange rates and European options.
method Entropic Dynamics, entropic inference, scale invariance, logarithm of exchange rate.
result Derives the Geometric Brownian Motion and the Garman-Kohlhagen model for European options.
A market fix serves as a benchmark for foreign exchange (FX) execution, and is employed by many institutional investors to establish an exact reference at which execution takes place. The currently most popular FX fix is the World Market Reuters (WM/R) 4pm fix. Execution at the WM/R 4pm fix is a service offered by FX b…
The Heston model stands out from the class of stochastic volatility (SV) models mainly for two reasons. Firstly, the process for the volatility is non-negative and mean-reverting, which is what we observe in the markets. Secondly, there exists a fast and easily implemented semi-analytical solution for European options.…
Study shows long memory in FX spot market order flow data.
problem Long memory in FX spot market order flow data.
method Statistical analysis of high-frequency data from a large electronic trading platform, testing for long memory and structural breaks.
result Strong evidence of long memory with Hurst exponent of approximately 0.7 for each currency pair and trading day.
Paper detects intensity bursts in financial data using Hawkes processes.
problem Detecting and analyzing intensity bursts in high-frequency financial data.
method Proposes a novel Hawkes process-based method for detecting intensity bursts in financial data.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the method in detecting intensity bursts in FX markets.
A new model decomposes market variability into interpretable components.
problem Understanding the factors driving market variability and predicting future movements.
method H-SGDLM framework with HAR-RV model for GPU-scalable multivariate volatility estimation.
result Superior performance in predicting large moves and longer-term market variability.
We investigate a class of hierarchical mixtures-of-experts (HME) models where exponential family regression models with generalized linear mean functions of the form psi(ga+fx^Tfgb) are mixed. Here psi(...) is the inverse link function. Suppose the true response y follows an exponential family regression model with mea…
A method reduces variance in FX option valuation using mixed Monte Carlo and PDE.
problem Valuation of FX options under Heston-CIR model with variance reduction.
method Mixed Monte Carlo and PDE approach for simulating squared volatility and interest rates.
result Strong convergence and accurate approximations for quantities of interest.
One of the most popular copulas for modeling dependence structures is t-copula. Recently the grouped t-copula was generalized to allow each group to have one member only, so that a priori grouping is not required and the dependence modeling is more flexible. This paper describes a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method…
We use techniques from network science to study correlations in the foreign exchange (FX) market over the period 1991--2008. We consider an FX market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each weighted edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. To provide insights into the clus…
This paper gives an arbitrage-free prediction for future prices of an arbitrary co-terminal set of options with a given maturity, based on the observed time series of these option prices. The statistical analysis of such a multi-dimensional time series of option prices corresponding to n strikes (with n large, e.g.…
The study uses AI to optimize trading in FX markets by considering size-dependent fees and risk-aversion.
problem Optimizing trading in FX markets with size-dependent fees and risk-aversion.
method Fitted Natural Actor-Critic (FNC) Reinforcement Learning algorithm.
result The algorithm effectively trades with variable order sizes, reducing transaction costs and promoting risk-averse behavior.
Study tests rough fractional volatility model across different time scales, revealing new volatility patterns.
problem Testing robustness of rough fractional volatility model over various time scales.
method Used large dataset on FX rates, included smoothing and measurement errors, analyzed log-log plots of realized variance increments.
result Found new stylized facts in volatility patterns, including convexity and nonlinear behavior.
A dealer manages quotes and rejection rules to control slippage risk in FX markets.
problem Managing inventory risk and latency risk in OTC FX market making.
method Dynamic programming and adiabatic-quadratic approximation to optimize quotes and rejection rules.
result Developed a method to optimize quotes and rejection rules for managing slippage risk.