A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New loss functions improve extreme classification with missing labels.
EX-DRL improves extreme quantile prediction for financial risk management.
Improves forecast calibration for extreme events using modified loss functions.
Model captures asymmetric extreme events in financial returns.
Agents prefer non-diversification in markets with extreme losses.
We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP loss probability density function and the percentiles associated to extreme eve…
Enhances Transformers for better risk assessment in finance.
Paper finds robust -quantiles equal to extremal distributions.
Study extreme-case Value-at-Risk under IFR distributions, providing guidance for risk management.
In extreme classification problems, learning algorithms are required to map instances to labels from an extremely large label set. We build on a recent extreme classification framework with logarithmic time and space, and on a general approach for error correcting output coding (ECOC) with loss-based decoding, and intr…
Study tail risk in high-frequency finance using -regularized regression.
A method to identify important features without solving the full problem.
This research shows loss weighting remains effective in last layer retraining despite model overparameterization.
When optimizing against the mean loss over a distribution of predictions in the context of a regression task, then even if there is a distribution of targets the optimal prediction distribution is always a delta function at a single value. Methods of constructing generative models need to overcome this tendency. We con…
Develops a climate risk model for asset managers.
Let E be the Engel group and D be a rank 2 bracket generating left invariant distribution with a Lorentzian metric, which is a nondegenerate metric of index 1. In this paper, we first prove that timelike normal extremals are locally maximizing. Second, we obtain a parametrization of timelike, spacelike, lightlike norma…
The paper identifies five extreme learning regimes for large linear autoencoders.
A new notion of stochastic ordering is introduced to compare multivariate stochastic risk models with respect to extreme portfolio losses. In the framework of multivariate regular variation comparison criteria are derived in terms of ordering conditions on the spectral measures, which allows for analytical or numerical…
In this paper we propose a method of obtaining points of extreme overfitting - parameters of modern neural networks, at which they demonstrate close to 100 % training accuracy, simultaneously with almost zero accuracy on the test sample. Despite the widespread opinion that the overwhelming majority of critical points o…
The goal in extreme multi-label classification is to learn a classifier which can assign a small subset of relevant labels to an instance from an extremely large set of target labels. Datasets in extreme classification exhibit a long tail of labels which have small number of positive training instances. In this work, w…
The stability of the financial system is associated with systemic risk factors such as the concurrent default of numerous small obligors. Hence it is of utmost importance to study the mutual dependence of losses for different creditors in the case of large, overlapping credit portfolios. We analytically calculate the m…
A meticulous assessment of the risk of impacts associated with extreme wind events is of great necessity for populations, civil authorities as well as the insurance industry. Using the concept of spatial risk measure and related set of axioms introduced by Koch (2017, 2019), we quantify the risk of losses due to extrem…
AGCA approximates angular variation on the unit sphere, reducing extremal dependence problems to eigenanalysis.
Paper studies SERA's effectiveness in optimizing imbalanced regression models.
Multi-class classification with a very large number of classes, or extreme classification, is a challenging problem from both statistical and computational perspectives. Most of the classical approaches to multi-class classification, including one-vs-rest or multi-class support vector machines, require the exact estima…
Proposes a network-based strategy to manage financial market risks.
GARCH-UGH improves VaR estimation for financial risk management.
Study improves flood loss risk models using historical data and rainfall data.
Large-batch stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is widely used for training in distributed deep learning because of its training-time efficiency, however, extremely large-batch SGD leads to poor generalization and easily converges to sharp minima, which prevents naive large-scale data-parallel SGD (DP-SGD) from convergin…
This paper analyzes extreme flooding risks and proposes insurance and bond solutions.
New method estimates extreme outcomes in heavy-tailed data, breaking circular dependence.
APLC-XLNet improves XMTC by clustering labels and reducing computational time.
The paper calculates extreme measures in continuous time conic finance.
Study uses spectral risk for learning with heavy-tailed data.
Paper examines risk measure expansions under FGM dependence, improving accuracy at extreme levels.
The predict-then-optimize framework is fundamental in many practical settings: predict the unknown parameters of an optimization problem, and then solve the problem using the predicted values of the parameters. A natural loss function in this environment is to consider the cost of the decisions induced by the predicted…
This paper tackles efficient optimization for nonlinear embeddings in similarity learning.
This paper describes an empirical study of shortfall optimization with Barra Extreme Risk. We compare minimum shortfall to minimum variance portfolios in the US, UK, and Japanese equity markets using Barra Style Factors (Value, Growth, Momentum, etc.). We show that minimizing shortfall generally improves performance ov…
Paper proposes a new anomaly detection method using Random Forest with Mallows-like criterion.
In the covariate shift learning scenario, the training and test covariate distributions differ, so that a predictor's average loss over the training and test distributions also differ. In this work, we explore the potential of extreme dimension reduction, i.e. to very low dimensions, in improving the performance of imp…
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach allows a provision for reduction of capital as a result of insurance mitigation of up to 20%. This paper studies the behaviour of different insurance policies in the context of capital reduction for a range of possible extreme los…
Investigates how options can control systemic risk in portfolios.
The impact of a stress scenario of default events on the loss distribution of a credit portfolio can be assessed by determining the loss distribution conditional on these events. While it is conceptually easy to estimate loss distributions conditional on default events by means of Monte Carlo simulation, it becomes imp…
Using daily returns of the S&P 500 stocks from 2001 to 2011, we perform a backtesting study of the portfolio optimization strategy based on the extreme risk index (ERI). This method uses multivariate extreme value theory to minimize the probability of large portfolio losses. With more than 400 stocks to choose from, ou…
Paper proposes ARB-Loss to improve classification precision in imbalanced datasets.
We present an easily implemented, fast, and accurate method for approximating extreme quantiles of compound loss distributions (frequency+severity) as are commonly used in insurance and operational risk capital models. The Interpolated Single Loss Approximation (ISLA) of Opdyke (2014) is based on the widely used Single…
Least squares kernel based methods have been widely used in regression problems due to the simple implementation and good generalization performance. Among them, least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) and extreme learning machine (ELM) are popular techniques. However, the noise sensitivity is a major bottlene…
Bayesian GPR model predicts extreme stock market losses.