Study improves financial risk assessment using ARMA-APARCH-EVT models with HACs.
problem Improving risk assessment in financial portfolios.
method ARMA-APARCH-EVT-HAC model for volatility and extreme value forecasting.
result Empirical analysis shows the model's effectiveness in international stock market data.
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.
This paper develops DRO estimators for EVT statistics using point processes.
problem Scarcity of extreme data leads to model misspecification error in EVT.
method Developed DRO estimators informed by semi-parametric max-stable constraints in the space of point processes.
result Proposed DRO estimators improve out-of-sample performance and are validated on synthetic and real data.
The article models financial asset returns using Gaussian mixtures and EVT-based copulas to price equity options.
problem Modeling financial asset returns and pricing equity options considering extreme values.
method Modeling marginal distributions with Gaussian mixtures and joint dependence structure with EVT-based copulas.
result The approach accurately prices various equity options on Atos and Dassault Systems actions.
In this paper, we explore various statistical techniques for anomaly detection in conjunction with the popular Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning model for transportation networks. We obtain the prediction errors from an LSTM model, and then apply three statistical models based on (i) the Gaussian distribution…
The paper uses EVT to improve tail risk measures under ambiguity sets.
problem Misspecification of tail risk measures leads to inflated risk estimates.
method Applies Extreme Value Theory to derive worst-case tail risk under ambiguity sets.
result Proposes a tail-calibrated ambiguity design that preserves nominal tail asymptotic scaling.
The SV-GARCH-EVT model improves risk assessment in financial markets.
problem Inaccurate risk assessment in financial markets due to fat-tailed and leverage effects.
method Enhanced SV model with EVT for tail distribution, MCMC for parameter estimation.
result SV-EVT models outperform other models in backtesting and out-of-sample analysis.
New neural network models extreme value distributions with preserved shape constraints.
problem Modeling multivariate extreme value distributions with preserved shape constraints.
method d-max-decreasing neural network architecture for non-parametric calibration and generation of MEVs.
result The proposed architecture approximates the dependence structure of MEVs at parametric rate and preserves essential shape constraints.
Estimates treatment effects in rare extreme events using EVT.
problem Estimating treatment effects in rare, impactful events like extreme climate events.
method Introduces a novel framework using EVT and multivariate regular variation for consistent treatment effect estimation.
result Developed a consistent estimator for extreme treatment effects with rigorous non-asymptotic analysis.
We develop an end-to-end deep learning-based anomaly detection model for temporal data in transportation networks. The proposed EVT-LSTM model is derived from the popular LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) network and adopts an objective function that is based on fundamental results from EVT (Extreme Value Theory). We compa…
Improved Hawkes model forecasts extreme financial returns more accurately.
problem Forecasting extreme tail events in financial log-returns.
method 2T-POT Hawkes model with multiple exceedance thresholds.
result 2T-POT Hawkes model outperforms GARCH-EVT model in risk forecasting.
Extremes play a special role in Anomaly Detection. Beyond inference and simulation purposes, probabilistic tools borrowed from Extreme Value Theory (EVT), such as the angular measure, can also be used to design novel statistical learning methods for Anomaly Detection/ranking. This paper proposes a new algorithm based o…
Combines GANs and EVT for better modeling of spatial climate extremes.
problem Modeling dependencies between climate extremes, especially in high-dimensional spaces.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) combined with Extreme Value Theory (EVT).
result evtGAN outperforms classical GANs and statistical approaches in modeling spatial extremes.
Deep Learning is applied to energy markets to predict extreme loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose deep spatio-temporal models and extreme value theo…
ExGAN generates realistic extreme samples using GANs and EVT.
problem Generating realistic extreme scenarios for risk management.
method ExGAN combines GANs with EVT to model extreme tails of distributions.
result ExGAN efficiently generates extreme samples with constant time complexity.
This paper uses VAE to generate extreme events from multivariate data.
problem Generating accurate extremes from observational data for risk assessment.
method Variational Autoencoder (VAE) approach for multivariate heavy-tailed distributions.
result Improves learning of dependency structure between extremes.
Capturing the dependence structure of multivariate extreme events is a major concern in many fields involving the management of risks stemming from multiple sources, e.g. portfolio monitoring, insurance, environmental risk management and anomaly detection. One convenient (non-parametric) characterization of extremal de…
CLEVER (Cross-Lipschitz Extreme Value for nEtwork Robustness) is an Extreme Value Theory (EVT) based robustness score for large-scale deep neural networks (DNNs). In this paper, we propose two extensions on this robustness score. First, we provide a new formal robustness guarantee for classifier functions that are twic…
Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value …
New method simulates multivariate extreme events using GANs and Aitchison coordinates.
problem Simulating multivariate extreme events for economic risk assessment.
method Wasserstein-Aitchison GAN approach combining tail dependence and marginal tail modeling.
result Strong performance in capturing tail dependence and generating accurate extreme observations.
New model predicts financial tail events using RIA-EVT-Copula.
problem Predicting financial tail events for risk management.
method RIA-EVT-Copula framework combining POT, RIA, and copulas.
result Improved accuracy in predicting financial extremes.
In this paper we study time-consistent risk measures for returns that are given by a GARCH(1,1) model. We present a construction of risk measures based on their static counterparts that overcomes the lack of time-consistency. We then study in detail our construction for the risk measures Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Average…
Study examines cryptocurrency impacts on financial indices using advanced risk models.
problem Interdependence between cryptocurrencies and financial indices, focusing on risk spillover.
method Hybrid approach integrating GARCH, EVT, and copula functions for risk measures.
result eGARCH-EVT-Copula model outperforms conventional methods in risk estimation.
This paper uses ML and EVT to analyze tree ring data, improving accuracy of predictions.
problem Analyzing tree ring data for climate modeling and historical studies.
method Combines machine learning algorithms with extreme value theory for data analysis.
result Random Forest method yields the most accurate results for tree ring data analysis.
This paper assesses tail risk and systemic risk in cryptocurrencies using expectiles and MES.
problem Quantifying tail risk and systemic risk in cryptocurrencies.
method The study uses expectiles and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) to assess tail risk and systemic risk of cryptocurrencies.
result The expectile-based approach and MES provide a dynamic method to evaluate the impact of single assets on systemic risk.
Recently, a marked Poisson process (MPP) model for life catastrophe risk was proposed in [6]. We provide a justification and further support for the model by considering more general Poisson point processes in the context of extreme value theory (EVT), and basing the choice of model on statistical tests and model compa…
Paper formalizes continual semi-supervised anomaly detection, showing promising results.
problem Formalizing continual semi-supervised anomaly detection in real-world conditions.
method Baseline model of variational autoencoder (VAE) with deep generative replay and outlier rejection.
result Outlier rejection shows promising results, often surpassing baseline methods.
This paper analyzes extreme flooding risks and proposes insurance and bond solutions.
problem Severe rise in magnitude and frequency of floods causing catastrophic losses.
method Extremes analysis using Peaks-Over-Threshold method and Point Process model; Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional VaR (CVaR) estimation; Flood zoning insurance and catastrophic bond design.
result Developed flood risk vulnerability and threat analysis considering geography and economic factors; Proposed flood zoning insurance and catastrophic bond design.
Bayesian GPR model predicts extreme stock market losses.
problem Forecasting rare but impactful extreme negative returns in equity markets.
method Developed a Bayesian Generalised Pareto Regression model linking scale parameter to market volatility.
result The Cauchy prior provides the best balance between predictive accuracy and model simplicity.
The Financial Crisis of 2008 is a worldwide financial crisis causing a worldwide economic decline that is the most severe since the 1930s. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global financial crisis gave impact on USD 3.4 trillion losses from financial institutions around the world between 2007 and …
Proposes a method to improve pWCET estimation for heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Improving pWCET estimation for heavy-tailed distributions in real-time systems.
method Incorporates saturating functions into Chebyshev's inequality to mitigate the influence of large outliers.
result Achieves safe and tighter bounds for heavy-tailed distributions.
In this paper, a novel joint transmit power and resource allocation approach for enabling ultra-reliable low-latency communication (URLLC) in vehicular networks is proposed. The objective is to minimize the network-wide power consumption of vehicular users (VUEs) while ensuring high reliability in terms of probabilisti…
Extreme value theory enhances statistical learning extrapolation for rare events.
problem Challenges in traditional machine learning methods for extreme data.
method Asymptotic theory and statistical tools for tail behavior.
result Effective extrapolation methods for extreme quantiles and anomalies.
New method uses extreme value theory to estimate neural network errors.
problem Quantifying the error of neural networks, especially for large values.
method Applying extreme value theory to approximate the distribution of error.
result Developed a new estimator for the shape parameter of the Pareto distribution.
A novel model combines deep learning and extreme value theory for multivariate cyber risk prediction.
problem High dimensionality and heavy tails in multivariate cyber risk patterns.
method Combines deep learning for point predictions and extreme value theory for quantile predictions.
result The model provides satisfactory high quantile predictions and accurate point predictions.
Classification tasks usually assume that all possible classes are present during the training phase. This is restrictive if the algorithm is used over a long time and possibly encounters samples from unknown classes. The recently introduced extreme value machine, a classifier motivated by extreme value theory, addresse…
Proposes a network-based strategy to manage financial market risks.
problem Managing extreme events in volatile financial markets.
method Extreme value theory, network model, maximum independent set, value at risk, expected shortfall.
result Developed portfolio strategies improve risk diversification.
The paper tackles catastrophic risk in reinforcement learning using extreme value theory.
problem Mitigating catastrophic risk in sequential decision making with limited observations.
method Developed POTPG, a policy gradient algorithm based on extreme value theory.
result POTPG outperforms common benchmarks in numerical experiments.
New framework estimates treatment effects in extreme data.
problem Hindered by unavailability of counterfactual outcomes and rarity of extreme data.
method Proposes a new framework based on extreme value theory.
result Quantifies treatment effects using tail decay rates of potential outcomes.
Proposes a method to model financial returns with extreme shocks using flexible tail transformations.
problem Capturing extreme shocks in financial return data.
method Introduces a transformation layer in normalizing flows to model heavy-tailed distributions.
result Trained models can generate synthetic sets of extreme returns.
Paper improves risk estimation for extreme events.
problem Estimating extreme risks accurately.
method Modified Bayes risk for expectiles, asymptotic expansions, efficient estimators.
result Asymptotic normality of estimators proved.
This paper uses MIS to identify key financial institutions with minimal risk contagion.
problem Mitigating systemic risk during extreme financial events.
method Applying extreme value theory and MIS from graph theory to identify diversified portfolios.
result Identified a subset of institutions with minimal extremal dependence for diversified portfolios.
Survey of extreme value modeling techniques for insurance.
problem Modeling of insurance industry's extreme events.
method Truncation, tempering, censoring, regression techniques.
result Adapted techniques for insurance applications.
Spectral clustering identifies clusters of multivariate extremes.
problem Analyzing the dependence structure of multivariate extremes.
method Spectral clustering based on a random k-nearest neighbor graph. result Spectral clustering can consistently identify clusters of multivariate extremes under certain conditions.
Paper improves risk estimation for rare events in sequential decisions.
problem Estimating tail risk in high confidence levels with limited data.
method Combines extreme value theory and automated threshold selection.
result Improves performance in estimating tail risk for some distributions.
Paper introduces SPADE method to protect classifiers from OOD and adversarial samples.
problem Protecting classifiers from out-of-distribution and adversarial samples.
method SPADE method based on GEV model in latent space.
result Provable protection against OOD and adversarial samples.
The thesis evaluates and compares extreme mixture models in finance and insurance.
problem Estimating tail risk measures in finance and insurance.
method Extreme mixture models and methods, including kernel density estimation and GARCH preprocessing.
result Kernel density estimation-based models do not outperform others in tail risk estimation.
Study optimizes climate adaptation strategies for NYC.
problem Catastrophic damages from extreme weather in NYC.
method Real options analysis and extreme value theory.
result Optimal adaptation pathways identified for NYC.