arXiv research

This article provides a new toolbox to derive sparse recovery guarantees from small deviations on extreme singular values or extreme eigenvalues obtained in Random Matrix Theory. This work is based on Restricted Isometry Constants (RICs) which are a pivotal notion in Compressed Sensing and High-Dimensional Statistics a…

Optimal portfolios for fat-tailed risks using a new tail risk measure.

New Gini indices capture more nuanced income inequality.

In this work we consider the Taylor expansion of the exponential map of a submanifold immersed in R^n up to order three, in order to introduce the concepts of lateral and frontal deviation. We compute the directions of extreme lateral and frontal deviation for surfaces in R^3. Also we compute, by using the Taylor expan…

Trading affects grid frequency fluctuations, making them more extreme.

We present the Shortfall Deviation Risk (SDR), a risk measure that represents the expected loss that occurs with certain probability penalized by the dispersion of results that are worse than such an expectation. SDR combines Expected Shortfall (ES) and Shortfall Deviation (SD), which we also introduce, contemplating t…

Sharp bounds for distortion risk metrics under uncertain distributions.

Method generates plausible financial stress scenarios using large deviations.

This paper deals with optimally-robust parameter estimation in generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs). These arise naturally in many situations where one is interested in the behavior of extreme events as motivated by the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan extreme value theorem (PBHT). The application we have in mind is calcula…

The paper examines extreme value statistics of high-dimensional sample covariances, with applications in finance and image analysis.

Improves deep RL agents' generalization to unseen environments.

In this article we show the relationship between the Pareto distribution and the gamma distribution. This shows that the second one, appropriately extended, explains some anomalies that arise in the practical use of extreme value theory. The results are useful to certain phenomena that are fitted by the Pareto distribu…

Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using a large collection of data from three different stock markets, we present evide…

We study the local geometry of the space of horizontal curves with endpoints freely varying in two given submanifolds $\mathcal P$ and $\mathcal Q$ of a manifold $\mathcal M$ endowed with a distribution $\mathcal D\subset T\M$. We give a different proof, that holds in a more general context, of a result by Bismut (Larg…

Recently, large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of the self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a diffe…

In this paper, we propose an AdaBoost-assisted extreme learning machine for efficient online sequential classification (AOS-ELM). In order to achieve better accuracy in online sequential learning scenarios, we utilize the cost-sensitive algorithm-AdaBoost, which diversifying the weak classifiers, and adding the forgett…

Derives short-term option pricing asymptotics in local-stochastic volatility models.

Vanishing gradients hinder reinforcement finetuning of language models.

This papers addresses the stock option pricing problem in a continuous time market model where there are two stochastic tradable assets, and one of them is selected as a numéraire. It is shown that the presence of arbitrarily small stochastic deviations in the evolution of the numéraire process causes significant chang…

This paper clarifies Bitcoin's volatility and predictability across daily, weekly, and monthly scales.

The paper provides bounds for the empirical angular measure and applies them to improve statistical learning in extreme regions.

We consider a stochastic volatility model which captures relevant stylized facts of financial series, including the multi-scaling of moments. The volatility evolves according to a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with super-linear mean reversion. Using large deviations techniques, we determine the asymptotic sh…

Study improves $L^{\infty}$ estimates and extreme value behavior in stochastic differential games.

The paper addresses risk sharing and variability measures among agents with general risk preferences.

We investigate the distributions of epsilon-drawdowns and epsilon-drawups of the most liquid futures financial contracts of the world at time scales of 30 seconds. The epsilon-drawdowns (resp. epsilon- drawups) generalise the notion of runs of negative (resp. positive) returns so as to capture the risks to which invest…

We investigate the variety of a portfolio of stocks in normal and extreme days of market activity. We show that the variety carries information about the market activity which is not present in the single-index model and we observe that the variety time evolution is not time reversal around the crash days. We obtain th…

ELM combines machine learning and feature engineering for anomalous diffusion detection.

Simple mean and std-based classifier outperforms chance on 69 out of 128 time-series problems.

Identifies arms with rewards significantly different from the majority.

We show that discrete synaptic weights can be efficiently used for learning in large scale neural systems, and lead to unanticipated computational performance. We focus on the representative case of learning random patterns with binary synapses in single layer networks. The standard statistical analysis shows that this…

MOVDA improves skill ratings by considering margin of victory deviations.

We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain approximate forms of these probabilities which prove, among other interesting propertie…

Paper proposes efficient GCN learning method for limited data.

Stablecoin system improves resilience to extreme market events.

In developing countries like India agriculture plays an extremely important role in the lives of the population. In India, around 80\% of the population depend on agriculture or its by-products as the primary means for employment. Given large population dependency on agriculture, it becomes extremely important for the …

This paper empirically analyses risk in the Euro relative to other currencies. Comparisons are made between a sub period encompassing the final transitional stage to full monetary union with a sub period prior to this. Stability in the face of speculative attack is examined using Extreme Value Theory to obtain estimate…

Many conventional statistical procedures are extremely sensitive to seemingly minor deviations from modeling assumptions. This problem is exacerbated in modern high-dimensional settings, where the problem dimension can grow with and possibly exceed the sample size. We consider the problem of robust estimation of sparse…

The study identifies and predicts extreme stock price fluctuations using HHT and SVM.

Introduces Star-Shaped deviation measures for risk analysis.

The mass, or binding energy, is the basis property of the atomic nucleus. It determines its stability, and reaction and decay rates. Quantifying the nuclear binding is important for understanding the origin of elements in the universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the nucleosynthesis in stars often take …

Paper characterizes monotonic mean-deviation risk measures.

We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace stochastic volatility. In contrast to other, similar stochastic volatility formalisms, th…

In this paper we present an application of the use of autocopulas for modelling financial time series showing serial dependencies that are not necessarily linear. The approach presented here is semi-parametric in that it is characterized by a non-parametric autocopula and parametric marginals. One advantage of using au…

We extend previous large deviations results for the randomised Heston model to the case of moderate deviations. The proofs involve the Gärtner-Ellis theorem and sharp large deviations tools.

Paper proves large deviation principle for stochastic approximations.

Anomaly detection is the process of finding data points that deviate from a baseline. In a real-life setting, anomalies are usually unknown or extremely rare. Moreover, the detection must be accomplished in a timely manner or the risk of corrupting the system might grow exponentially. In this work, we propose a two lev…

In this paper we propose the notion of dynamic deviation measure, as a dynamic time-consistent extension of the (static) notion of deviation measure. To achieve time-consistency we require that a dynamic deviation measures satisfies a generalised conditional variance formula. We show that, under a domination condition,…

We present evidence that the best model for empirical volume-price distributions is not always the same and it strongly depends in (i) the region of the volume-price spectrum that one wants to model and (ii) the period in time that is being modelled. To show these two features we analyze stocks of the New York stock ma…