A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We provide a classification of graphical models according to their representation as subfamilies of exponential families. Undirected graphical models with no hidden variables are linear exponential families (LEFs), directed acyclic graphical models and chain graphs with no hidden variables, including Bayesian networks …
The paper introduces a new method for graph embedding using exponential family distributions.
problem Representing networks in a low dimensional latent space for various applications.
method Introduces the exponential family graph embedding model, generalizing random walk-based techniques to exponential family conditional distributions.
result The proposed techniques outperform existing methods in link prediction and node classification tasks.
Thompson Sampling has been demonstrated in many complex bandit models, however the theoretical guarantees available for the parametric multi-armed bandit are still limited to the Bernoulli case. Here we extend them by proving asymptotic optimality of the algorithm using the Jeffreys prior for 1-dimensional exponential …
In this paper, a Bayesian inference technique based on Taylor series approximation of the logarithm of the likelihood function is presented. The proposed approximation is devised for the case, where the prior distribution belongs to the exponential family of distributions. The logarithm of the likelihood function is li…
We study the problem of finding the smallest m such that every element of an exponential family can be written as a mixture of m elements of another exponential family. We propose an approach based on coverings and packings of the face lattice of the corresponding convex support polytopes and results from coding th…
We study online learning under logarithmic loss with regular parametric models. Hedayati and Bartlett (2012b) showed that a Bayesian prediction strategy with Jeffreys prior and sequential normalized maximum likelihood (SNML) coincide and are optimal if and only if the latter is exchangeable, and if and only if the opti…
We consider the design of prediction market mechanisms known as automated market makers. We show that we can design these mechanisms via the mold of \emph{exponential family distributions}, a popular and well-studied probability distribution template used in statistics. We give a full development of this relationship a…
Undirected graphical models, or Markov networks, are a popular class of statistical models, used in a wide variety of applications. Popular instances of this class include Gaussian graphical models and Ising models. In many settings, however, it might not be clear which subclass of graphical models to use, particularly…
We present Vector-Space Markov Random Fields (VS-MRFs), a novel class of undirected graphical models where each variable can belong to an arbitrary vector space. VS-MRFs generalize a recent line of work on scalar-valued, uni-parameter exponential family and mixed graphical models, thereby greatly broadening the class o…
We propose a novel approach for density estimation with exponential families for the case when the true density may not fall within the chosen family. Our approach augments the sufficient statistics with features designed to accumulate probability mass in the neighborhood of the observed points, resulting in a non-para…
Exponential family extensions of principal component analysis (EPCA) have received a considerable amount of attention in recent years, demonstrating the growing need for basic modeling tools that do not assume the squared loss or Gaussian distribution. We extend the EPCA model toolbox by presenting the first exponentia…
In a range of fields including the geosciences, molecular biology, robotics and computer vision, one encounters problems that involve random variables on manifolds. Currently, there is a lack of flexible probabilistic models on manifolds that are fast and easy to train. We define an extremely flexible class of exponent…
New insights into natural exponential families improve regret bounds for bandit problems.
problem Improving regret bounds for bandit problems with subexponential tails.
method Proving self-concordance for natural exponential families and applying to bandits.
result Optimistic algorithms for generalized linear bandits have second-order regret bounds that are free of an exponential dependence on problem parameters.
Enhances text generation interpretability with a mixture of exponential family distributions.
problem Limited interpretability in text generation models.
method Introduced Dispersed Exponential Family Mixture VAEs (DEM-VAE) with a mixture of exponential family distributions and an extra dispersion term to train the model.
result Demonstrated improved interpretability and generation quality compared to strong baselines.
Exponential families are a particular class of statistical manifolds which are particularly important in statistical inference, and which appear very frequently in statistics. For example, the set of normal distributions, with mean μ and deviation σ, form a 2-dimensional exponential family. In this paper, we show that …