In this note we discuss the mathematical tools to define trend indicators which are used to describe market trends. We explain the relation between averages and moving averages on the one hand and the so called exponential moving average (EMA) on the other hand. We present a lot of examples and give the definition of t…
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48 results for “Exponential Averaging”
The study analyzes when Bayesian averaging over decision trees is reliable.
problem When do Bayesian model averaging weights over decision trees provide reliable information?
method Closed-form solution for Bayesian decision trees with Catalan-exponential priors.
result Established a complete non-asymptotic theory of rational commitment thresholds.
Improved averaging method for noisy observations converges strongly.
problem Noisy observations from random dynamical systems require stable estimates.
method Introduced -EMA, a modified exponential moving average with subharmonic weight decay.
result Stochastic convergence guarantees for -EMA under mild assumptions.
The paper rethinks the use of exponential averaging in machine learning optimization.
problem The inefficiency of using exponential averaging in optimization algorithms.
method The paper connects EA-CM algorithms to Wake of Quadratic regularized models and proposes new algorithms, KLD-WRM.
result The new algorithms outperform existing methods like K-FAC on MNIST.
Paper analyzes how EMA improves SGD in linear regression.
problem Understanding the effectiveness of EMA in training deep learning models.
method Established risk bound for online SGD with EMA in linear regression.
result SGD with EMA has smaller variance error and exponentially decaying bias error.
Exponential smoothers are a simple and memory efficient way to compute running averages of time series. Here we define and describe practical properties of exponential smoothers for signals observed at constant and variable intervals.
PACE optimizes training for averaged language models, improving performance.
problem How to optimize training for averaged language model iterates.
method Formulated as an optimal-control problem, solved for minimizing error of the average with a penalty on intervention size.
result PACE improves the limiting squared error of the iterate-average estimator by an arbitrarily large factor on some instances.
We extend a recent synchronization analysis of exact finite-state sources to nonexact sources for which synchronization occurs only asymptotically. Although the proof methods are quite different, the primary results remain the same. We find that an observer's average uncertainty in the source state vanishes exponential…
Exponential Weighting and Random-Matrix-Theory-Based Filtering of Financial Covariance Matrices for Portfolio Optimizationcond-mat.stat-mech
We introduce a covariance matrix estimator that both takes into account the heteroskedasticity of financial returns (by using an exponentially weighted moving average) and reduces the effective dimensionality of the estimation (and hence measurement noise) via techniques borrowed from random matrix theory. We calculate…
Optimal approximations of power-laws with exponentialsphysics.data-an
We propose an explicit recursive method to approximate a power-law with a finite sum of weighted exponentials. Applications to moving averages with long memory are discussed in relationship with stochastic volatility models.
We provide a surprising new application of classical approximation theory to a fundamental asset-pricing model of mathematical finance. Specifically, we calculate an analytic value for the correlation coefficient between exponential Brownian motion and its time average, and we find the use of divided differences greatl…
Paper proposes a mean-field gradient descent for zero-sum games, proving convergence to Nash equilibrium.
problem Finding mixed Nash equilibria in zero-sum games with multiple players.
method Mean-field gradient descent dynamics with time-averaging, incorporating exponentially discounted gradients.
result Exponential convergence rate to mixed Nash equilibrium with respect to total variation metric.
Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by non-ergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential growth while any individual trajectory collapses according to its time-average. A com…
This paper addresses the problem of prediction with expert advice for outcomes in a geodesic space with non-positive curvature in the sense of Alexandrov. Via geometric considerations, and in particular the notion of barycenters, we extend to this setting the definition and analysis of the classical exponentially weigh…
BEMA reduces bias in EMA, leading to faster convergence and better performance.
problem Stochasticity in language model fine-tuning destabilizes training.
method Bias-Corrected Exponential Moving Average (BEMA) augmentation of EMA.
result BEMA leads to significantly improved convergence rates and final performance.
A new method for exponentially weighted moving models using approximations.
problem Efficiently updating moving averages for time series data.
method Approximates EWMM using a fixed window and quadratic term, solving non-growing problems.
result Approximation produces estimates similar to exact EWMM.
New energy functional and fields for Yang-Mills theory, proving monotonicity and vanishing theorems.
problem Developing new mathematical tools for Yang-Mills theory.
method Introducing normalized exponential Yang-Mills energy functional, deriving monotonicity formula and vanishing theorem.
result Monotonicity and vanishing theorems for exponential Yang-Mills fields.
Improving optimization for iterate-averaged language models
problem How to optimize the averaged model returned by Language Model pipelines
method Formulating optimizer design as an optimal-control problem
result Proven convergence rate and strict improvement in squared error
We examine two different techniques for parameter averaging in GAN training. Moving Average (MA) computes the time-average of parameters, whereas Exponential Moving Average (EMA) computes an exponentially discounted sum. Whilst MA is known to lead to convergence in bilinear settings, we provide the -- to our knowledge …
GPA improves LLM training speed by 8.71% for Llama-160M models.
problem Training Large Language Models (LLMs) with high memory overhead and slow convergence.
method Generalized Primal Averaging (GPA) extends Nesterov's method to eliminate memory-intensive two-loop structure.
result GPA achieves up to 10.13% speedup over AdamW in training Llama-1B model.
High fidelity behavior prediction of intelligent agents is critical in many applications. However, the prediction model trained on the training set may not generalize to the testing set due to domain shift and time variance. The challenge motivates the adoption of online adaptation algorithms to update prediction model…
New moving average adapts weight dynamically based on polynomial and wavefunction.
problem Lagging traditional moving averages in adjusting to changes in data.
method Develops a moving average with weight as a polynomial of a wavefunction from an eigenproblem.
result Immediate 'switch' without lag, adapting to changes in data.
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the …
Extends online learning to metric spaces using exponential weights.
problem Online learning in metric spaces.
method Exponentially weighted average forecaster, barycenters, Jensen's inequality, measure contraction property.
result Results in a statistical learning framework.
New RL method MAC improves performance in sparse reward settings.
problem Slow mixing in large state spaces or sparse rewards.
method Multi-level Monte Carlo Actor-Critic (MAC) algorithm.
result Achieves convergence rate comparable to state-of-the-art AC algorithms.
Machine learning models outperform traditional technical analysis in Bitcoin trading.
problem Maximizing profits in the Bitcoin market using trading signals.
method Comparison of machine learning models (LightGBM, LSTM) and technical analysis strategies (EMA, MACD+ADX).
result LSTM model achieved a 65.23% cumulative return over a year, significantly outperforming other strategies.
Adaptive estimation for nonstationary time series reduces computational cost.
problem Estimating parameters of nonstationary time series with varying parameters over time.
method Moving exponential moving ML estimator for scale parameter estimation.
result Significantly improved log-likelihoods compared to standard estimation.
The paper improves error bounds for Bayesian quadrature in noisy settings.
problem Improving error bounds for Bayesian quadrature in noisy settings.
method Develops a two-step meta-algorithm to relate average-case quadrature error to -function approximation error.
result Provides new average-case results for various kernels and noise settings.
New covariance estimator for financial portfolios.
problem Estimating large financial covariances in non-stationary environments.
method Exponentially weighted averages and cross-validation for nonlinearly shrinking sample eigenvalues.
result Our estimator performs well in large dimensions compared to existing estimators.
STORM-PG uses momentum for faster policy gradient updates.
problem Improving policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning.
method Introduces STORM-PG, a SARAH-based algorithm with exponential moving average.
result Achieves sample complexity, matching best-known rate.
We analyze how an observer synchronizes to the internal state of a finite-state information source, using the epsilon-machine causal representation. Here, we treat the case of exact synchronization, when it is possible for the observer to synchronize completely after a finite number of observations. The more difficult …
A new method for averaging model predictions using minimum divergence.
problem Improving model averaging methods, especially in small samples.
method Minimum divergence framework for model weight calculation.
result Empirically outperforms standard model averaging methods.
A new method normalizes flow mixtures for better inference across different data types.
problem Inference failure across diverse posterior geometries in normalizing flows.
method Introduces a two-stage framework with a stable global weighting mechanism based on sEMA.
result Achieves consistent NLL improvements and stable weight trajectories over baselines.
Classifying streaming data requires the development of methods which are computationally efficient and able to cope with changes in the underlying distribution of the stream, a phenomenon known in the literature as concept drift. We propose a new method for detecting concept drift which uses an Exponentially Weighted M…
New algorithms bound graph structure sampling and learning high-dimensional graphical models.
problem Learning high-dimensional graphical models and efficient graph structure sampling.
method Online learning framework with exponentially weighted average (EWA) or randomized weighted majority (RWM) forecasters using log loss function.
result New sample complexity bounds and efficient algorithms for learning Bayes nets, including trees and chordal skeletons.
Stochastic Gradient Descent with Exponential Convergence Rates of Expected Classification Errorsstat.ML
We consider stochastic gradient descent and its averaging variant for binary classification problems in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. In the traditional analysis using a consistency property of loss functions, it is known that the expected classification error converges more slowly than the expected risk even whe…
New optimization method improves generalization across various tasks.
problem Improving zeroth-order optimization for better generalization.
method Exponential tilting objective to connect zeroth-order optimization with sharpness-aware minimization.
result Achieves better generalization compared to vanilla zeroth-order baselines.
The paper optimizes portfolios using MACD signals derived from price history.
problem Optimizing risky asset portfolios with latent mean-reverting and momentum factors.
method Derives optimal strategies based on MACD signals from EMA processes.
result Establishes admissibility and verification of optimal strategies.
Learning the parameters of a (potentially partially observable) random field model is intractable in general. Instead of focussing on a single optimal parameter value we propose to treat parameters as dynamical quantities. We introduce an algorithm to generate complex dynamics for parameters and (both visible and hidde…
Stock mechanics: a general theory and method of energy conservation with applications on DJIAphysics.soc-ph
A new method, based on the original theory of conservation of sum of kinetic and potential energy defined for prices is proposed and applied on Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA). The general trends averaged over months or years gave a roughly conserved total energy, with three different potential energies, i.e. posi…
Improved score-based models generate high-quality images up to 256x256.
problem Training score-based models for high-resolution images is unstable and limited.
method Theoretical analysis, exponential moving average of model weights.
result Score-based models can generate high-fidelity images up to 256x256.
New adaptive methods solve weakly convex stochastic optimization problems.
problem Solving weakly convex stochastic optimization problems.
method Adaptive first and zeroth-order methods using exponential moving averages.
result Established non-asymptotic convergence rates for nonsmooth and nonconvex problems.
Barren plateaus are not an average-case phenomenon, but a highly non-unique problem.
problem Avoiding barren plateaus in neural network training
method First-moment framework for initialization strategies
result Many families of inequivalent initialization strategies can avoid concentration
Several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods that have been successfully used in training deep networks such as RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta, Nadam are based on using gradient updates scaled by square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. In many applications, e.g. learning with large …
We build a multiassets heterogeneous agents model with fundamentalists and chartists, who make investment decisions by maximizing the constant relative risk aversion utility function. We verify that the model can reproduce the main stylized facts in real markets, such as fat-tailed return distribution and long-term mem…
This work proposes a model averaging method for SVM that avoids redundant covariates and achieves asymptotic optimality.
problem Redundant covariates impair SVM performance in high-dimensional settings.
method Frequentist model averaging procedure for SVM using cross-validation to select optimal weights.
result The proposed method achieves asymptotic optimality in SVM model averaging.
Paper proposes ClipSMT algorithm for better ATE estimation.
problem Adaptive estimation of Average Treatment Effect (ATE).
method ClipSMT algorithm for improved Neyman regret.
result Achieves exponential improvements in Neyman regret.
Behavior cloning training instabilities amplified by SGD noise over long horizons.
problem Training instabilities in behavior cloning with deep neural networks.
method Empirical dissection of minibatch SGD updates and their effects on long-horizon rewards.
result Exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates effectively mitigates gradient variance amplification (GVA).