A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Estimate arrival times in random recursive trees using iterated Jordan centralities.
News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The "bad" and "good" news seems to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double exponential jump-diffusion model is proposed. Theorems stated in the paper enable est…
We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramer-Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the arrival times of the premiums and of the claims respectively, are independent. Such a …
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual interactions phenomena. The authors propose here a simple yet conclusive method for f…
This paper deals with dependence across marginally exponentially distributed arrival times, such as default times in financial modeling or inter-failure times in reliability theory. We explore the relationship between dependence and the possibility to sample final multivariate survival in a long time-interval as a sequ…
Study on queues with Hawkes arrivals, proving steady-state behavior and developing an efficient algorithm.
Price changes are induced by aggressive market orders in stock market. We introduce a bivariate marked Hawkes process to model aggressive market order arrivals at the microstructural level. The order arrival intensity is marked by an exogenous part and two endogenous processes reflecting the self-excitation and cross-e…
Order book dynamics play an important role in both execution time and price formation of orders in an exchange market. In this study, we aim to model the limit order arrival rates in the vicinity of the best bid and the best ask price levels. We use limit order book data for Garanti Bank, which is one of the most trade…
Modified EAT method improves Poisson gradient estimation.
Proves Arnold-Thom conjecture for surfaces' arrival times.
Algorithm solves job acceptance problem with random arrivals and values.
Motivated by the desire to bridge the gap between the microscopic description of price formation (agent-based modeling) and the stochastic differential equations approach used classically to describe price evolution at macroscopic time scales, we present a mathematical study of the order book as a multidimensional cont…
Unified framework for intermittent demand forecasting using renewal processes.
R. Cont and A. de Larrard (SIAM J. Finan. Math, 2013) introduced a tractable stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, computing various quantities of interest such as the probability of a price increase or the diffusion limit of the price process. As suggested by empirical observations, we extend their …
For a monotonically advancing front, the arrival time is the time when the front reaches a given point. We show that it is twice differentiable everywhere with uniformly bounded second derivative. It is smooth away from the critical points where the equation is degenerate. We also show that the critical set has finite …
In a previous analysis the problem of "zero-inflated" time data (caused by high frequency trading in the electronic order book) was handled by left-truncating the inter-arrival times. We demonstrated, using rigorous statistical methods, that the Weibull distribution describes the corresponding stochastic dynamics for a…
GRUwE improves irregular time series prediction with simpler, efficient RNN-based approach.
Optimal fund deployment strategy under uncertain deal arrivals.
In this paper, we introduce Ballooning Multi-Armed Bandits (BL-MAB), a novel extension of the classical stochastic MAB model. In the BL-MAB model, the set of available arms grows (or balloons) over time. In contrast to the classical MAB setting where the regret is computed with respect to the best arm overall, the regr…
New method models stopping times that can be equal with non-zero probability.
Researchers reconstruct simple Riemannian manifolds from boundary wave arrival times.
In this paper we study the distributional properties of a vector of lifetimes in which each lifetime is modeled as the first arrival time between an idiosyncratic shock and a common systemic shock. Despite unlike the classical multidimensional Marshall-Olkin model here only a unique common shock affecting all the lifet…
This paper evaluates various bus arrival time prediction models.
Edge computing tackles dynamic data in IIoT with incremental learning.
Sequential screening and dynamic regret in multi-armed bandits with arriving arms
In this work, a version of Fermat's principle for causal curves with the same energy in time orientable Finsler spacetimes is proved. We calculate the secondvariation of the {\it time arrival functional} along a geodesic in terms of the index form associated with the Finsler spacetime Lagrangian. Then the character of …
We consider a classical risk process with arrival of claims following a non-stationary Hawkes process. We study the asymptotic regime when the premium rate and the baseline intensity of the claims arrival process are large, and claim size is small. The main goal of the article is to establish a diffusion approximation …
Time series data that are not measured at regular intervals are commonly discretized as a preprocessing step. For example, data about customer arrival times might be simplified by summing the number of arrivals within hourly intervals, which produces a discrete-time time series that is easier to model. In this abstract…
Study of bandit problem with Poisson decision times and Lévy processes.
New model explains volatility after extreme stock market events.
We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying intensities. We demonstrate that inter-arrival times can be decomposed into simpler…
SMURF-THP improves Transformer Hawkes process models by providing uncertainty quantification.
This paper extends subordinated models to include stochastic time changes, improving financial modeling.
Optimal insurance and investment strategy under exponential preferences in a correlated market model.
The study analyzes a model for aggregate losses with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.
In this paper, we take a new approach for time of arrival geo-localization. We show that the main sources of error in metropolitan areas are due to environmental imperfections that bias our solutions, and that we can rely on a probabilistic model to learn and compensate for them. The resulting localization error is val…
A message passing algorithm is derived for recovering communities within a graph generated by a variation of the Barabási-Albert preferential attachment model. The estimator is assumed to know the arrival times, or order of attachment, of the vertices. The derivation of the algorithm is based on belief propagation unde…
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with respectively the trade arrival self-excitation, the price changes mean reversion…
In this paper we analytically study the problem of pricing an arithmetically averaged Asian option in the path integral formalism. By a trick about the Dirac delta function, the measure of the path integral is defined by an effective action functional whose potential term is an exponential function. This path integral …
Space debris warnings follow a predictable pattern, allowing timely satellite maneuvers.
We present a simple connection between differential Harnack inequalities for hypersurface flows and natural concavity properties of their time-of-arrival functions. We prove these concavity properties directly for a large class of flows by applying a concavity maximum principle argument to the corresponding level set f…
Probabilistic solvers improve stability for stiff systems.
We propose a computationally efficient random walk on a convex body which rapidly mixes and closely tracks a time-varying log-concave distribution. We develop general theoretical guarantees on the required number of steps; this number can be calculated on the fly according to the distance from and the shape of the next…
This paper tackles inventory control with general arrival dynamics and post-processing, improving profitability.
We study the flow of a smooth, strictly convex hypersurface by its mean curvature in . The surface remains smooth and convex, shrinking monotonically until it disappears at a critical time and point (which is due to Huisken). This is equivalent to saying that the corresponding rescaled…
Generalizes Fermat's principle for wave propagation in cone structures.
Access to a large variety of data across a massive population has made it possible to predict customer purchase patterns and responses to marketing campaigns. In particular, accurate demand forecasts for popular products with frequent repeat purchases are essential since these products are one of the main drivers of pr…
The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.