This article introduces a framework to estimate the value of evidence-based decision making.
problem Lack of empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making and optimize statistical precision.
method Empirical framework using parametric and nonparametric empirical Bayes methods.
result The value of statistical evidence depends on how organizations translate it into policy decisions.
This paper develops a framework for efficient decision-making under time pressure.
problem Efficient decision-making under time pressure and subjective tradeoffs.
method Unified framework for evidence-based decision-making under time pressure.
result Ability to model and understand decision-making behavior under time constraints.
Review of uncertainty representation methods in risk management.
problem Inadequate consideration of uncertainty in risk management.
method Systematic literature review of 370 publications.
result Probabilistic methods are predominant, but fuzzy and evidence-based approaches are also useful.
This paper is part of the research on the interlinkages between insurers and their contribution to systemic risk on the insurance market. Its main purpose is to present the results of the analysis of linkage dynamics and systemic risk in the European insurance sector which are obtained using correlation networks. These…
We contribute the largest publicly available dataset of naturally occurring factual claims for the purpose of automatic claim verification. It is collected from 26 fact checking websites in English, paired with textual sources and rich metadata, and labelled for veracity by human expert journalists. We present an in-de…
Epidemiology simulations have become a fundamental tool in the fight against the epidemics of various infectious diseases like AIDS and malaria. However, the complicated and stochastic nature of these simulators can mean their output is difficult to interpret, which reduces their usefulness to policymakers. In this pap…
New framework for managing medical risks using convex responses.
problem Medical risk management and dosing optimization.
method Analyzes convex and concave dose-response functions, defines antifragility.
result Proposes a mathematical framework for integrating nonlinearities in oncology.
Mobile and ubiquitous sensing of urban air quality has received increased attention as an economically and operationally viable means to survey atmospheric environment with high spatial-temporal resolution. This paper proposes a machine learning based mobile air pollution sensing framework, called Deep-MAPS, and demons…
Visual system compares and evaluates machine learning models for clinical data predictions.
problem Challenges in comparing and evaluating different machine learning models for medical predictions.
method Developed a visual analytics system to compare and evaluate multiple models' prediction criteria and consistency.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the visual analytics system in assisting clinicians and researchers.
A novel model combines deep learning and extreme value theory for multivariate cyber risk prediction.
problem High dimensionality and heavy tails in multivariate cyber risk patterns.
method Combines deep learning for point predictions and extreme value theory for quantile predictions.
result The model provides satisfactory high quantile predictions and accurate point predictions.
When eliciting judgements from humans for an unknown quantity, one often has the choice of making direct-scoring (cardinal) or comparative (ordinal) measurements. In this paper we study the relative merits of either choice, providing empirical and theoretical guidelines for the selection of a measurement scheme. We pro…
Study improves prediction of UK road accidents' severity using AI.
problem Improving prediction of UK road traffic accident severity.
method Combination of machine learning, econometric, and statistical methods on historical data.
result XGBoost model with RMSE of 0.176 and MAE of 0.087 outperforms naive forecasting.
Proposes LAMA for principled SVDD hyperparameter estimation.
problem Estimating SVDD hyperparameters is difficult and heuristic methods are unreliable.
method LAMA (Local Active Min-Max Alignment) using active learning and kernel alignment.
result LAMA provides evidence-based estimates for SVDD hyperparameters with quality scores.
We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002--2003, 2004--2005, 2008--2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (…
Understanding the structure of financial markets deals with suitably determining the functional relation between financial variables. In this respect, important variables are the trading activity, defined here as the number of trades N, the traded volume V, the asset price P, the squared volatility σ2, the bid…
Machine learning research for developing countries can demonstrate clear sustainable impact by delivering actionable and timely information to in-country government organisations (GOs) and NGOs in response to their critical information requirements. We co-create products with UK and in-country commercial, GO and NGO pa…
Paper proposes federated offline RL for personalized medicine.
problem Privacy constraints and heterogeneity in healthcare data.
method Multi-site Markov decision process model and first federated policy optimization algorithm.
result The proposed algorithm achieves comparable suboptimality to centralized RL.
SPIDER uses deep neural networks for streaming tensor factorization.
problem Lack of effective approach for deep tensor factorization of streaming data.
method Bayesian neural networks with spike-and-slab prior, Taylor expansions, moment matching, and EPI framework.
result Effective incremental updates for latent factors and NN weights.
New framework aims to make neural network explanations more reliable.
problem Current interpretability methods rely on intuition and lack falsifiability.
method Proposes a framework for strongly falsifiable interpretability research.
result Falsifiable interpretability methods can generate meaningful advances in understanding DNNs.
This paper studies transformer learning dynamics and initialization.
problem Understanding how transformers learn Markov chains and the role of initialization.
method First-order Markov chains and single-layer transformers, proving learning dynamics and conditions for convergence.
result Transformer parameters can converge to global or local minima based on initialization and Markovian data properties.
Maps of infectious disease---charting spatial variations in the force of infection, degree of endemicity, and the burden on human health---provide an essential evidence base to support planning towards global health targets. Contemporary disease mapping efforts have embraced statistical modelling approaches to properly…
Data describing historical growth of income per capita [Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP/cap)] for the world economic growth and for the growth in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America are analysed. They follow closely the linearly-modulated hyperbolic distributions represent…
Trading-R1 uses LLMs for financial trading, improving risk-adjusted returns.
problem Lack of interpretability and trust in AI for finance.
method Supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning with a curriculum.
result Improved risk-adjusted returns and lower drawdowns compared to other models.
UK universities pension scheme valuation study shows high dependence on gilt yields.
problem High dependence of UK universities pension scheme on UK government bond yields.
method Analysis of USS valuations from 2014 to 2023, examination of self-sufficiency conditions, and evaluation of metrics.
result Second self-sufficiency condition amplifies gilt yield dependence, leading to inflated liabilities and excessive prudence.
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the criteria air pollutants regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency in the United States. There is strong evidence that ambient exposure to (PM2.5) increases risk of mortality and hospitalization. Large scale epidemiological studies on the health effects of P…
New algorithm achieves optimal clustering for sparse centers with high dimensions.
problem Statistical and computational limits of clustering sparse centers with high dimensions.
method Sparse clustering algorithm based on sparse PCA.
result Achieves minimax optimal misclustering rate under certain conditions.
Source imaging based on magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG) allows for the non-invasive analysis of brain activity with high temporal and good spatial resolution. As the bioelectromagnetic inverse problem is ill-posed, constraints are required. For the analysis of evoked brain activity, spatia…
New method uses untrusted data for more precise causal analysis.
problem Causal questions with limited trusted data.
method Incorporates untrusted data and trains richer models.
result Tighter, sounder prediction intervals.
New method improves ABC for Bayesian model comparison.
problem Comparing complex models with observed data.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation with posterior density estimation.
result Efficiently assigns high posterior probabilities to ground-truth models.
Study improves risk management for volatile markets using expectiles.
problem Limitations of traditional risk measures during market stress.
method Develops expectile-based framework for FTSE 100 index.
result Expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) outperforms traditional VaR measures.
Unified framework for fair decision-making across diverse groups.
problem Statistical brittleness in fairness testing for small subgroups.
method Size-adaptive hypothesis testing framework.
result Validated approach for interpretable, statistically rigorous decisions.
KM-GPT automates IPD reconstruction from KM plots with high accuracy and scalability.
problem Manual digitization of IPD from KM plots is error-prone and lacks scalability.
method KM-GPT integrates advanced image preprocessing, multi-modal reasoning, and iterative reconstruction algorithms.
result KM-GPT generates high-quality IPD without manual input or intervention, achieving superior accuracy.
Big data analytics improves healthcare through early detection and quality life.
problem Limited access to healthcare data hinders evidence-based decision-making.
method Analysis of healthcare data using various tools and techniques.
result Big data analytics enhances healthcare quality and patient outcomes.
Bipartite networks provide an insightful representation of many systems, ranging from mutualistic networks of species interactions to investment networks in finance. The analysis of their topological structures has revealed the ubiquitous presence of properties which seem to characterize many - apparently different - s…
The subject of the present article is the study of correlations between large insurance companies and their contribution to systemic risk in the insurance sector. Our main goal is to analyze the conditional structure of the correlation on the European insurance market and to compare systemic risk in different regimes o…
Q-learning with cSMART data assesses cAI tailoring variables.
problem Evaluating moderators in cAI construction.
method Clustered Q-learning with M-out-of-N Cluster Bootstrap.
result Constructs confidence intervals for causal effect moderation.
The paper examines how ESG constraints affect portfolio optimization in large datasets.
problem Investment optimization with ESG constraints in large portfolios.
method Asymptotic analysis of out-of-sample Sharpe ratio, regularization matrix estimation, and adaptive portfolio selection.
result The proposed adaptive ESG-constrained portfolio yields a high out-of-sample Sharpe ratio while meeting ESG requirements.
This research develops a new framework to measure AI investment returns considering both gains and risks.
problem Traditional ROI calculations fail to account for AI's dual impact on risk reduction and new exposures.
method Integrates ISO 42001 and regulatory exposure into a comprehensive financial framework using risk quantification methods.
result Accurate AI investment evaluation requires modeling both productivity gains and risk exposures.
Paper explores statistical and computational limits of estimating low-rank Gaussian mixtures.
problem Estimating low-rank matrix-variate observations with optimal statistical and computational limits.
method Low-rank Gaussian mixture model (LrMM) and minimax lower bounds.
result Minimax optimality of maximum likelihood estimator and spectral aggregation method.
Background. Real-world data show that approximately 50% of psoriasis patients treated with a biologic agent will discontinue the drug because of loss of efficacy. History of previous therapy with another biologic, female sex and obesity were identified as predictors of drug discontinuations, but their individual predic…
The paper develops methods to estimate the high-dimensional efficient frontier without distributional assumptions.
problem Estimating the mean-variance efficient frontier in high-dimensional settings.
method Random matrix theory and asymptotic analysis for high-dimensional data.
result Developed consistent estimators for the mean, variance, and covariance of the efficient frontier.
Bayesian Gaussian Processes improve exoplanet transit and Hubble constant inference.
problem Improving exoplanet transit and Hubble constant inference using Bayesian Gaussian Processes.
method Kernel-, mean- and noise-marginalised Gaussian Processes with evidence-based model comparison and transdimensional sampling.
result Inferred Hubble constant H0 values from cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are 66±6kms−1Mpc−1, 67±10kms−1Mpc−1 and 69±6kms−1Mpc−1, respectively. New framework validates counterfactual estimations in network interference settings.
problem Challenges in causal effect estimation and validation in network interference settings.
method Introduces a distribution-preserving network bootstrap and counterfactual cross-validation procedure.
result Validates counterfactual estimations in diverse network interference settings.
Federated CTMC model estimates bridge deterioration hazards without sharing raw data.
problem Bridge inspection data privacy and cross-organizational data sharing constraints.
method Federated CTMC hazard model with local optimization and FedAvg aggregation.
result Federated model converges on global benchmark parameters without data transfer.
We invoke a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to jointly analyse two traditional emission-line classification schemes of galaxy ionization sources: the Baldwin-Phillips-Terlevich (BPT) and WHα vs. [NII]/Hα (WHAN) diagrams, using spectroscopic data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 and SEAGal/STARLI…
The paper audits trading filters, finding a high save-to-miss ratio.
problem Improving the efficiency and accuracy of trading filters in decentralized exchanges.
method A precision audit of filter rules against real trading data, classifying rejection events.
result Conservative save-to-miss ratio of 3.7 : 1, with wider interpretation of 14.8 : 1.
We explore the potential of a popular distributional semantics vector space model, word2vec, for capturing meaningful relationships in ecological (complex polyphonic) music. More precisely, the skip-gram version of word2vec is used to model slices of music from a large corpus spanning eight musical genres. In this newl…
Develops a two-stage conformal prediction method for Parkinson's disease medication needs.
problem Heterogeneous disease progression and treatment response in Parkinson's Disease.
method Two-stage conformal prediction framework with statistical guarantees.
result Quantifies uncertainty in medication needs predictions, improving clinical trust and quality of life.