GEAR uses graphs to integrate and reason over multiple evidence for fact verification.
problem Fact verification requires integrating and reasoning over multiple pieces of evidence.
method GEAR employs a graph-based framework to transfer information among evidence and uses BERT for improved performance.
result GEAR achieves a promising test FEVER score of 67.10% on a large-scale benchmark dataset.
FAML addresses biased evidence learning in multi-view learning, improving fairness and prediction reliability.
problem Biased evidence learning in multi-view learning, leading to unreliable uncertainty estimation.
method FAML introduces an adaptive prior and fairness constraint to balance evidence allocation across views.
result FAML enhances fairness and improves prediction reliability compared to state-of-the-art methods.
In this paper, we test a partially segmented ICAPM for two developed markets, two emerging markets and World market, using an asymmetric extension of the multivariate GARCH process of De Santis and Gerard (1997,1998). We find that this asymmetric process provides a significantly better fit of the data than a standard s…
fiBAG integrates multiplatform genomic data to identify disease markers.
problem Understanding complex mechanisms underlying human diseases from multiplatform genomic data.
method fiBAG uses Gaussian process models and Bayes factors to identify functional evidence and guide variable selection.
result fiBAG improves detection of disease-related markers compared to non-integrative methods.
We present FAKTA which is a unified framework that integrates various components of a fact checking process: document retrieval from media sources with various types of reliability, stance detection of documents with respect to given claims, evidence extraction, and linguistic analysis. FAKTA predicts the factuality of…
Parallelized Bayesian quadrature improves sample efficiency and inference.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference and model evidence calculation.
method Batch Bayesian quadrature with kernel recombination for parallel sampling.
result Empirically, outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various datasets.
We prove that square integrable holomorphic functions (with respect to a plurisubharmonic weight) can be extended in a square integrable manner from certain singular hypersurfaces (which include uniformly flat, normal crossing divisors) to entire functions in affine space. This provides evidence for a conjecture regard…
Develops a multi-resolution multi-task framework for integrating noisy, varying data.
problem Integrating evidence from multiple observation processes with varying resolutions and noise levels.
method Multi-resolution Multi-task Gaussian Processes (MRGP) framework, shallow and deep Gaussian Process mixtures.
result Generalizes and outperforms state-of-the-art GP compositions, offering efficient corrections and approximations.
New method optimizes portfolios by dynamically integrating ESG constraints.
problem Static ESG scores mismatch sequential portfolio decisions.
method MACF-X, a family of adapters that learns ESG costs from multimodal evidence.
result Reduces tail ESG budget pressure while maintaining financial performance.
In this paper, we focus our study on the ends of a locally conformally flat complete manifold with finite total Q-curvature. We prove that for such a manifold, the integral of the Q-curvature equals an integral multiple of a dimensional constant cn, where cn is the integral of the Q-curvature on the unit $n…
This article studies the financial integration between the six main Latin American markets and the US market in a nonlinear framework. Using the threshold cointegration techniques of Hansen and Seo (2002), we show significant threshold stock market linkages between Mexico, Chile and the US. Thus, the dynamics of these …
RNNs classify text by accumulating evidence on a low-dimensional manifold.
problem Understanding how RNNs solve text classification tasks.
method Dynamical systems analysis applied to trained RNNs.
result RNNs use a low-dimensional attractor manifold to classify text.
This paper examines how the U.S.--China trade war affects stock markets, finding evidence of financial contagion and changes in risk channels.
problem The impact of the U.S.--China trade war on stock markets and financial contagion.
method Developed a novel jump-diffusion process to account for risk contagion, using high-frequency financial data and quasi-maximum likelihood estimator.
result Evidence of financial contagion from the U.S. to China, with changes in risk contagion channels.
Private credit markets have expanded significantly, offering unique lending technology to private equity firms.
problem Understanding the growth and characteristics of private credit markets.
method Systematic survey of academic literature, development of integrated theoretical framework, empirical evidence.
result Private credit markets offer a distinct lending technology with higher spreads over syndicated loans.
Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and applicable to multi-predictor…
Study on CR curves in 3-sphere, focusing on critical curves integration and existence.
problem Addressing the integration and existence of critical curves in the CR 3-sphere.
method Provided a procedure for the explicit integration of general critical curves and characterized closed curves.
result Existence of infinite countably many closed critical curves.
Suppose that a hyperbolic knot in S3 admits a finite surgery, Boyer and Zhang proved that the surgery slope must be either integral or half-integral, and they conjectured that the latter case does not happen. Using the correction terms in Heegaard Floer homology, we prove that if a hyperbolic knot in S3 admits a …
The risk of a credit portfolio depends crucially on correlations between the probability of default (PD) in different economic sectors. Often, PD correlations have to be estimated from relatively short time series of default rates, and the resulting estimation error hinders the detection of a signal. We present statist…
KM-GPT automates IPD reconstruction from KM plots with high accuracy and scalability.
problem Manual digitization of IPD from KM plots is error-prone and lacks scalability.
method KM-GPT integrates advanced image preprocessing, multi-modal reasoning, and iterative reconstruction algorithms.
result KM-GPT generates high-quality IPD without manual input or intervention, achieving superior accuracy.
In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical techniques. Specific attention is paid to the Laplace approximation, variational Ba…
TQ separates sampling and integration for high-dimensional integrals.
problem High-dimensional integration challenges in science.
method Tree Quadrature (TQ) constructs a surrogate model using regression trees.
result TQ outperforms existing methods in up to 15 dimensions.
A new method using mean shift clustering speeds up Bayesian evidence calculation.
problem Difficulty in Nested Sampling algorithm convergence and systematic errors.
method Mean shift cluster recognition method integrated into NestedFit.
result Significant reduction in computation time and uncertainty of Bayesian evidence.
Bayesian PINNs optimize loss weights for PDEs and data.
problem Optimizing loss weights in physics-informed neural networks.
method Laplace approximation for efficient model evidence computation.
result Unified Bayesian setting for PDEs and noisy measurements.
In this paper, we propose a non-parametric conditional factor regression (NCFR)model for domains with high-dimensional input and response. NCFR enhances linear regression in two ways: a) introducing low-dimensional latent factors leading to dimensionality reduction and b) integrating an Indian Buffet Process as a prior…
AI detects 38% NFT trades likely manipulated, improving on indirect methods.
problem Detecting crypto wash trading using indirect methods and leaked data.
method Public NFT data analysis, direct estimation, AI-based estimator.
result AI reduces estimation errors in NFT markets, improving on indirect methods.
Integrates VAEs into EM for deep clustering and generation.
problem Clustering and generating new samples from complex distributions.
method Combines VAEs and EM, updating model parameters and refining cluster assignments.
result Superior clustering performance on MNIST and FashionMNIST.
Proposes Geodesic Integrated Gradients (GIG) for more accurate feature attributions in deep networks.
problem Flawed attributions using straight paths from Integrated Gradients (IG).
method Introduces a model-induced Riemannian metric and computes attributions along geodesics.
result GIG produces more faithful attributions than IG on benchmarks.
HIP method extended to multi-class, Poisson, and Zero-Inflated Poisson outcomes with an R Shiny app.
problem Subgroup heterogeneity in complex diseases like COPD.
method Integrating multiple data views while accounting for subgroup heterogeneity.
result Identified common and subgroup-specific markers of exacerbation frequency in males and females.
Algorithm combines ESG ratings with pairs trading for sustainable investing.
problem Lack of socially responsible investment solutions.
method Integrates ESG data with pairs trading strategy using technical indicators.
result Model generates positive returns while adhering to ESG principles.
This paper analyses the behaviour of volatility for several international stock market indexes, namely the SP 500 (USA), the Nikkei (Japan), the PSI 20 (Portugal), the CAC 40 (France), the DAX 30 (Germany), the FTSE 100 (UK), the IBEX 35 (Spain) and the MIB 30 (Italy), in the context of non-stationarity. Our empirical …
New evidence supports the Euler class one conjecture for tight contact structures.
problem Euler class one conjecture for taut foliations and tight contact structures.
method Analysis of tight contact structures and counterexamples to the conjecture.
result Counterexamples to the Euler class one conjecture for taut foliations are also Euler classes of tight contact structures.
The paper explores how to handle uncertain evidence in probabilistic models.
problem Handling uncertain evidence in probabilistic models and stochastic simulators.
method The paper considers distributional evidence, Jeffrey's rule, and virtual evidence as methods for interpreting uncertain evidence.
result The paper provides guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and highlights the importance of careful consideration.
Deep learning model improves medical diagnosis and reduces patient time.
problem Ineffective and slow methods for synthesizing multimodal medical data.
method Cross-modal deep learning architecture with co-attention mechanism.
result Model outperforms previous methods by 2.35% and is 53% more efficient.
New framework improves attribution of predictive uncertainties in classification models.
problem Improper attribution of predictive uncertainties in classification tasks.
method Combines path integrals, counterfactual explanations, and generative models.
result Framework outperforms existing alternatives in quantitative evaluations.
Link invariants fail to detect most links with high probability.
problem Detecting specific link types using invariants.
method Mathematical proof and big-data analysis.
result Link invariants have a zero probability of detecting alternating links.
Evidence acquisition costs influence disclosure behavior and preference.
problem How evidence acquisition costs affect disclosure behavior and preference.
method Analyzes sender-receiver interactions with covert and overt evidence acquisition, varying certification costs.
result Equilibria converge to the Pareto-worst free-learning equilibrium as costs vanish, and receivers prefer covert to overt acquisition.
TVO tightens variational inference bounds for deep models.
problem Improving variational inference bounds for deep models.
method Introduces thermodynamic variational objective (TVO) connecting variational inference and thermodynamic integration.
result TVO provides tighter lower bound to log marginal likelihood than ELBO.
DASH improves ensemble generalizability by encouraging diverse, flat loss landscapes.
problem Improving generalization and robustness of deep ensembles.
method DASH promotes diversity and flatness in deep ensembles by encouraging base learners to move towards low-loss regions of minimal sharpness.
result DASH improves ensemble generalizability, as demonstrated by extensive empirical evidence.
In this paper we introduce evidence transfer for clustering, a deep learning method that can incrementally manipulate the latent representations of an autoencoder, according to external categorical evidence, in order to improve a clustering outcome. By evidence transfer we define the process by which the categorical ou…
Integrates nearest neighbors with neural networks for more accurate treatment effect estimation.
problem Inaccurate causal effect estimations from observational data.
method NNCI methodology integrating nearest neighbors with neural network models.
result Improves treatment effect estimations on various benchmarks.
This paper evaluates a method to improve representations using incomplete external evidence across tasks.
problem Increasing labelled data quality and quantity is challenging due to manual labelling errors and noise.
method Evidence Transfer method using incomplete categorical external evidence.
result Evidence Transfer proves effective and robust against different levels of incompleteness.
VFG model embeds flow-based models with hierarchical structures using variational inference.
problem Flow-based models struggle with high-dimensional latent spaces and lack of tractable inference for graphical structures.
method Integrates flow-based functions through variational inference with aggregation nodes for hierarchical information integration.
result VFG models achieve improved ELBO and likelihood values on multiple datasets.
This article introduces a framework to estimate the value of evidence-based decision making.
problem Lack of empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making and optimize statistical precision.
method Empirical framework using parametric and nonparametric empirical Bayes methods.
result The value of statistical evidence depends on how organizations translate it into policy decisions.
Inside the EU, the commercial integration of the CEE countries has gained remarkable momentum before the crisis appearance, but it has slightly slowed down afterwards. Consequently, the interest in identifying the factors supporting the commercial integration process is high. Recent findings in the new trade theory sug…
Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to the gradient or a large number of likelihood evaluations. We introduce here a n…
The Kepler-Heisenberg problem is that of determining the motion of a planet around a sun in the sub-Riemannian Heisenberg group. The sub-Riemannian Hamiltonian provides the kinetic energy, and the gravitational potential is given by the fundamental solution to the sub-Laplacian. This system is known to admit closed orb…
The CAP slope is Bayes' theorem in cumulative coordinates, unlocking the weight of evidence, Somers' D, and Gini coefficient.
problem Calibration and weight of evidence
method Identifying the CAP slope as Bayes' theorem
result Revealing the CAP slope as Bayes' theorem
CATVI improves variational inference for Bayesian nonparametric models by reducing divergence and improving prediction accuracy.
problem Limitations of current variational inference methods in characterizing latent correlations and inferring true posterior dimensions.
method CATVI integrates conditional and adaptive truncation into variational inference, maximizing nonparametric evidence lower bound and using Monte Carlo integration.
result CATVI outperforms traditional methods in Bayesian nonparametric topic models, reducing perplexity and improving topic-word clustering.