ELUQuant quantifies uncertainties in DIS events using BNNs and MNFs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS) events.
method Physics-informed Bayesian Neural Network with flow approximated posteriors.
result Effective extraction of kinematic variables x, Q2, and y with detailed event-level uncertainty. New algorithm reduces regret in private online learning with optimal gap-dependent rate.
problem Optimal gap-dependent regret rate for private stochastic decision-theoretic online learning.
method Horizon-free pure-DP algorithm with exponential block partitioning and softmax selection.
result Explicit regret bound of 1000⋅(ΔminlogK+εlogK). AdaPrivate-TS: A differentially private Thompson Sampling algorithm for contextual bandits
problem Private Thompson Sampling for Contextual Bandits
method Combining Thompson Sampling with batched zCDP composition
result Achieves 93-99% of non-private performance at ε ∈ [0.5, 5] with logarithmic privacy cost
Cryptocurrency markets show similar returns but different volatility responses to infrastructure and regulatory shocks.
problem Understanding how cryptocurrency markets differentiate between infrastructure and regulatory shocks.
method Event-level block bootstrap inference on 31 cryptocurrency events across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano (2019-2025).
result No statistically significant difference in cumulative abnormal returns between infrastructure failures and regulatory enforcement.
Large-scale trends in urban crime and global terrorism are well-predicted by socio-economic drivers, but focused, event-level predictions have had limited success. Standard machine learning approaches are promising, but lack interpretability, are generally interpolative, and ineffective for precise future interventions…
The July Revolution in Bangladesh was fueled by state violence, which paradoxically strengthened the movement.
problem Understanding how state repression can paradoxically lead to increased mobilization during civil resistance.
method Mixed-methods approach combining qualitative narrative and quantitative analysis using machine learning and statistical modeling.
result The July Revolution was driven by a contingent, non-linear backfire effect triggered by specific catalytic moral shocks and accelerated by the viral reaction to state brutality.
Recent progress in applying machine learning for jet physics has been built upon an analogy between calorimeters and images. In this work, we present a novel class of recursive neural networks built instead upon an analogy between QCD and natural languages. In the analogy, four-momenta are like words and the clustering…
PRAGMA models financial event sequences for various banking tasks.
problem Handling diverse financial data for multiple applications.
method Pre-training a Transformer model on a large banking event corpus with a self-supervised objective.
result PRAGMA achieves superior performance across multiple financial domains from raw event sequences.
CCE improves anomaly detection metrics by measuring both confidence and consistency.
problem Existing anomaly detection metrics lack discriminative power, hyperparameter dependency, and robustness to perturbations.
method CCE uses Bayesian estimation to quantify uncertainty and constructs global and event-level confidence and consistency scores.
result CCE demonstrates strict boundedness, robustness, and linear time complexity.
This work improves distribution recovery from sparse data using Random Forest implicit regularization.
problem Distribution recovery from limited statistics.
method Closed-form estimator for scaled beta distributions, using composite quantile and moment matching.
result Improved classification accuracy through closed-form distribution recovery and implicit regularization.
Algorithmic trading systems on DEXs reject most candidate tokens, but the counterfactual outcome of rejected candidates is rarely measured.
problem Measuring the counterfactual outcome of rejected tokens in algorithmic trading systems on decentralized exchanges.
method Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling (PRFS) introduces a methodology for collecting and analyzing the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates.
result PRFS produces the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates, not against synthetic backtest reconstructions.
New method detects and locates changes in spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Detecting and localizing changes in spatio-temporal data.
method Score-based, likelihood-free approach estimating change time and region.
result The method provides theoretical guarantees on detection and localization accuracy.
A key question for machine learning approaches in particle physics is how to best represent and learn from collider events. As an event is intrinsically a variable-length unordered set of particles, we build upon recent machine learning efforts to learn directly from sets of features or "point clouds". Adapting and spe…
Determining the best method for training a machine learning algorithm is critical to maximizing its ability to classify data. In this paper, we compare the standard "fully supervised" approach (that relies on knowledge of event-by-event truth-level labels) with a recent proposal that instead utilizes class ratios as th…
Study categorizes time series anomaly detection metrics based on evaluation challenges.
problem Challenges in evaluating time series anomaly detection due to diverse application objectives and metric assumptions.
method Problem-oriented framework categorizing metrics into six dimensions based on evaluation challenges.
result Quantifies each metric's discriminative ability and reveals limitations of widely used metrics.
Hybrid method uses LLM to filter lead-lag relationships in prediction markets.
problem Challenges in discovering robust lead-lag relationships in prediction markets due to spurious correlations.
method Two-stage approach: statistical Granger causality followed by LLM semantic re-ranking.
result LLM-based method outperforms statistical baseline, increasing win rate and reducing average loss magnitude.
ADSAGE detects anomalies in graph edge sequences for insider threat detection.
problem Detecting insider threats in fine-grained audit logs using graph and text features.
method Anomaly detection at edge level, supporting numeric, categorical, and text attributes.
result ADSAGE detects anomalies in authentications and email communications effectively.
Three methods detect informed trading on prediction markets, each focusing on different aspects.
problem Detecting informed trading in decentralized prediction markets.
method Composite screen, event-level sign-randomization test, and Information Leakage Score (ILS) framework.
result Different methods detect informed trading on prediction markets, each focusing on different aspects.
Efficient private matrix analysis algorithms for recent variants.
problem Private analysis of recent matrix updates.
method Identifying sufficient conditions on positive semidefinite matrices.
result First efficient differentially private algorithms for various matrix analysis tasks.
This paper introduces compositional data analysis for financial ratios, improving industry-level analysis.
problem Statistical issues with standard financial ratios at industry level.
method Compositional data analysis techniques for financial ratios.
result Improved analysis of financial ratios using compositional data methods.
In this dissertation, the main goal is visualisation of financial time series. We expect that visualisation of financial time series will be a useful auxiliary for technical analysis. Firstly, we review the technical analysis methods and test our trading rules, which are built by the essential concepts of technical ana…
Paper combines geometry and time-series analysis for spatiotemporal data.
problem Multivariate time-series data from multiple sensors.
method Combines manifold learning, Riemannian geometry, and spectral analysis.
result Proposes Riemannian multi-resolution analysis (RMRA) for dynamic mode extraction.
In this paper the exact linear relation between the leading eigenvectors of the modularity matrix and the singular vectors of an uncentered data matrix is developed. Based on this analysis the concept of a modularity component is defined, and its properties are developed. It is shown that modularity component analysis …
This paper investigates to identify the requirement and the development of machine learning-based mobile big data analysis through discussing the insights of challenges in the mobile big data (MBD). Furthermore, it reviews the state-of-the-art applications of data analysis in the area of MBD. Firstly, we introduce the …
Interactive DR framework for comparing datasets.
problem Limited flexibility in existing DR methods for comparative analysis.
method Unified linear comparative analysis (ULCA) with interactive optimization and visualization.
result ULCA and optimization algorithm improve comparative analysis efficiency and flexibility.
Combines topological and geometric approaches to data analysis.
problem Understanding when and how geometric objects intersect.
method Connects topological and geometric concepts of curvature.
result Reconceptualizes curvature and links it to hyperconvexity.
Proposes a multivariate regression model for better analysis of multiple datasets.
problem Insufficient performance of single-dataset analysis in integrative studies.
method Sparse estimation for variable and group selection, alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm.
result Demonstrated improved performance through simulations and real data analysis.
New method uses topological data analysis to study stock market crashes.
problem Characterizing and predicting stock market crashes.
method Topological data analysis, persistence landscape, dynamic time series analysis.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of new method for Flash Crash characterization and prediction.
Analyzes stock trends and e-commerce user behavior using Twitter data.
problem Understanding the relationship between stock prices, stock news, and e-commerce user behavior.
method Cross-domain analysis using Hadoop, Hive, and Tableau on three datasets.
result Identified correlations between stock sentiment, stock trends, and e-commerce user behavior.
Study analyzes Disney stock market performance using machine learning.
problem Forecasting stock market performance of Disney.
method Exploratory data analysis, feature engineering, model selection (linear regression).
result Linear regression model performed best.
This study analyzes data science vocabulary changes over 13 years.
problem Understanding evolution of data science terms over time.
method Exploratory Data Analysis, Latent Semantic Analysis, Latent Dirichlet Analysis, N-grams Analysis.
result Identified new vocabulary and its incorporation into scientific literature.
FinSphere improves stock analysis quality with AI and expert-curated data.
problem Lack of objective evaluation metrics and depth in stock analysis by FinLLMs.
method Developed AnalyScore, curated Stocksis dataset, and FinSphere AI agent.
result FinSphere outperforms general and domain-specific LLMs in generating high-quality stock analysis reports.
This study examines whether PCA can effectively identify nitrogen pollution sources in rivers.
problem Identifying pollution sources in rivers for effective environmental management.
method Principal Component Analysis and its modifications, along with Independent Component Analysis and Factor Analysis, are applied to nitrogen pollution source identification.
result PCA and related techniques can be powerful tools for uncovering nitrogen pollution sources in rivers.
Paper introduces probabilistic methods to approximate archetypal analysis, reducing complexity.
problem Inherent computational complexity of archetypal analysis limits its practical applicability.
method Two preprocessing techniques: dimensionality reduction and representation cardinality reduction, using probabilistic geometry.
result The method effectively reduces scaling and provides near-optimal solutions for prediction errors.
We present a unifying framework which reduces the construction of probabilistic component analysis techniques to a mere selection of the latent neighbourhood, thus providing an elegant and principled framework for creating novel component analysis models as well as constructing probabilistic equivalents of deterministi…
Deep learning techniques are rapidly advanced recently, and becoming a necessity component for widespread systems. However, the inference process of deep learning is black-box, and not very suitable to safety-critical systems which must exhibit high transparency. In this paper, to address this black-box limitation, we …
In this paper, we explore the effectiveness of dynamic analysis techniques for identifying malware, using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and Profile Hidden Markov Models (PHMMs), both trained on sequences of API calls. We contrast our results to static analysis using HMMs trained on sequences of opcodes, and show that dyn…
Improved LDA method for better classification and dimensionality reduction.
problem Improving linear discriminant analysis for better classification performance.
method Integrates spectrally-corrected covariance matrix and regularized discriminant analysis.
result SRLDA has a linear classification global optimal solution under spiked model assumption.
CDVI improves variational inference for survival analysis by considering censoring mechanisms.
problem Challenges in applying variational methods to survival data, especially the dependence on censoring.
method Censor-dependent variational inference (CDVI) tailored for latent variable models in survival analysis.
result Significant improvements in estimating individual survival distributions.
The kernel matrix used in kernel methods encodes all the information required for solving complex nonlinear problems defined on data representations in the input space using simple, but implicitly defined, solutions. Spectral analysis on the kernel matrix defines an explicit nonlinear mapping of the input data represen…
Prototypal analysis is introduced to overcome two shortcomings of archetypal analysis: its sensitivity to outliers and its non-locality, which reduces its applicability as a learning tool. Same as archetypal analysis, prototypal analysis finds prototypes through convex combination of the data points and approximates th…
In this paper, we introduce a Deep Convolutional Analysis Dictionary Model (DeepCAM) by learning convolutional dictionaries instead of unstructured dictionaries as in the case of deep analysis dictionary model introduced in the companion paper. Convolutional dictionaries are more suitable for processing high-dimensiona…
Improved analysis of UCBVI algorithm with better empirical performance.
problem Improving the UCBVI algorithm's performance and understanding its bounds.
method Refined analysis of UCBVI algorithm with improved bonus terms and regret analysis.
result Improving multiplicative constants in UCBVI bounds enhances empirical performance.
Reduces survival analysis to common regression tasks.
problem Applying standard machine learning tools to survival analysis.
method Various reduction techniques to simplify survival analysis.
result Benchmark analysis shows improved predictive performance.
A new robust scaling approach improves downstream metabolomics analysis.
problem Challenges in choosing scaling techniques for metabolomics data.
method Introduces a weighted scaling approach robust to outliers.
result The proposed method outperforms traditional scaling techniques in both outlier-free and outlier-present datasets.
Paper proposes FinAR-Bench to evaluate LLMs in financial analysis tasks.
problem Inaccurate financial analysis by LLMs leading to investment and regulatory issues.
method Proposes FinAR-Bench, a benchmark dataset with three steps: key info extraction, financial indicator calculation, and logical reasoning.
result LLMs perform better in key info extraction and indicator calculation but struggle with logical reasoning.
Wavelet analysis reveals non-linear dynamics in cryptocurrency prices.
problem Understanding non-linear dynamics in high-frequency cryptocurrency prices.
method Wavelet analysis of frequency and time variables.
result Cyclical persistence at different frequencies in cryptocurrency prices.
The book explores alternatives to worst-case analysis for algorithm performance.
problem Providing strong worst-case guarantees for many algorithms is impossible.
method Surveying and detailing various nuanced analysis approaches.
result More nuanced analysis approaches are needed for fundamental problems.