BayesBlend blends multiple models' predictions for better insurance loss predictions.
problem Improving insurance loss predictions by combining multiple models.
method Pseudo-Bayesian model averaging, stacking, and hierarchical stacking.
result BayesBlend provides a user-friendly way to blend model predictions and estimate weights.
OPERA blends multiple OPE estimators to evaluate new policies offline.
problem Lack of reliable offline policy evaluation methods for new policies.
method Adaptive blending of multiple OPE estimators without explicit selection.
result Consistent and reliable policy evaluation framework for offline RL.
We introduce a new framework for training deep generative models for high-dimensional conditional density estimation. The Bottleneck Conditional Density Estimator (BCDE) is a variant of the conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) that employs layer(s) of stochastic variables as the bottleneck between the input x a…
Deformations of a Courant Algebroid E and its Dirac subbundle A have been widely considered under the assumption that the pseudo-Euclidean metric is fixed. In this paper, we attack the same problem in a setting that allows the pseudo-Euclidean metric to deform. Thanks to Roytenberg, a Courant algebroid is equivalent to…
New model improves volatility forecasting by reducing overestimation and underestimation.
problem SVR-GARCH model overestimates or underestimates volatility, hindering peak or trough behaviors.
method Proposes blending ARCH and augmented blending-ARCH models to improve volatility forecasting.
result Empirical results show improved volatility forecasting ability.
The ability to perform offline A/B-testing and off-policy learning using logged contextual bandit feedback is highly desirable in a broad range of applications, including recommender systems, search engines, ad placement, and personalized health care. Both offline A/B-testing and off-policy learning require a counterfa…
Study shows ethanol blends and incentives can significantly reduce transportation carbon emissions.
problem Rapid growth in electric vehicles requires complementary strategies to decarbonize transportation.
method Analysis of ethanol blending, regulatory incentives, and economic assessments.
result Ethanol blending, especially E15 and E85, can substantially reduce carbon emissions and provide economic benefits.
Study examines Indian equity mutual funds' investment style and risk-shifting.
problem Understanding how Indian equity mutual funds' investment styles affect their returns.
method Estimating size and style beta coefficients, identifying breakpoints, analyzing investment styles, and assessing risk-shifting intensity.
result Funds can enhance returns by shifting to high-return styles like Small Value and Small Blend.
Improved sampling efficiency for inverse problems using variance-reduced diffusion methods.
problem Efficiently estimating noisy scores in inverse problems.
method Developed a nonparametric self-normalized importance sampling estimator and a state-dependent blending rule.
result Improved sample quality for fixed simulation budgets in synthetic targets and PDE-governed inverse problems.
Blend-ASC improves self-consistency efficiency by dynamically allocating samples, reducing costs.
problem Efficiently applying self-consistency to large datasets is computationally expensive.
method Blend-ASC dynamically allocates samples during inference, improving efficiency.
result Blend-ASC reduces sample usage by 6.8x on average compared to vanilla self-consistency.
Mack-Net model combines Mack's model with RNNs for better insurance liability estimation.
problem Accurate estimation of insurance liabilities for better financial decision-making.
method Integrates Mack's reserving model with Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs).
result Improves accuracy of general insurance liability assessment.
Forest-based methods estimate heterogeneous treatment effects, blending strengths for better performance.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in randomized and observational studies.
method Causal forests and model-based forests, blending strengths for better performance.
result Local centering of treatment indicator and propensities is crucial for good performance in randomized trials.
Quantum walks blend patterns into splines when averaged.
problem Understanding the asymptotic patterns of quantum random walks.
method Averaging over quantum coins using the Haar measure.
result Patterns blend into splines, showing a unified behavior.
The Straight-Through Estimator (STE) is widely used for back-propagating gradients through the quantization function, but the STE technique lacks a complete theoretical understanding. We propose an alternative methodology called alpha-blending (AB), which quantizes neural networks to low-precision using stochastic grad…
This paper improves level generation using VAEs for coherent, logically following segments.
problem Generating coherent levels of non-fixed length and blending levels from different games.
method Sequential segment-based level generation using VAEs with a classifier for logical placement.
result Generated levels are more coherent and capable of blending levels from different games.
The paper proposes blending gradient boosted trees and neural networks for hierarchical time series forecasting.
problem Point and probabilistic forecasting of hierarchical time series.
method A blending methodology of gradient boosted trees and neural networks, with feature engineering and diverse model selection.
result Ranked within the gold medal range in both Accuracy and Uncertainty tracks of the M5 Competition.
New PCGML approach generates novel game content across multiple platformer domains.
problem Generating novel game content in new domains.
method Using a new affordance and path vocabulary, variational autoencoders trained on data from six platformer games produce new content with varying proportions of different domains.
result Captures latent level space spanning multiple domains and generates new content with varying proportions of different domains.
The paper presents a framework for optimizing crypto-currency portfolios using generative models.
problem Optimizing crypto-currency portfolios using generative models.
method The approach involves evaluating diverse pairings of generative model forecasts and objective functions, using simulations and blending strategies.
result Eclectic blended portfolios outperform individual generative model-based portfolios.
Quantized deep neural networks (QDNNs) are attractive due to their much lower memory storage and faster inference speed than their regular full precision counterparts. To maintain the same performance level especially at low bit-widths, QDNNs must be retrained. Their training involves piecewise constant activation func…
While statistics focusses on hypothesis testing and on estimating (properties of) the true sampling distribution, in machine learning the performance of learning algorithms on future data is the primary issue. In this paper we bridge the gap with a general principle (PHI) that identifies hypotheses with best predictive…
A novel approach for augmenting histopathological images by blending Gaussian-Laplacian pyramids.
problem Data imbalance and inter-patient variability in histopathological images.
method Image blending using Gaussian-Laplacian pyramids to distribute inter-patient variability.
result Promising gains in performance compared to existing data augmentation techniques.
New method for predicting paths of unpredictable objects with high confidence.
problem Need for dependable uncertainty estimates in motion planning with diverse unpredictable objects.
method Blend online conformal prediction, multiple time series techniques, and heteroscedasticity addressing.
result Simultaneous forecasting bands that cover entire paths with high probability.
Matching pursuit algorithms are an important class of algorithms in signal processing and machine learning. We present a blended matching pursuit algorithm, combining coordinate descent-like steps with stronger gradient descent steps, for minimizing a smooth convex function over a linear space spanned by a set of atoms…
Improves deep learning models by blending gradients from training loss and auxiliary objective.
problem Minimizing a single training loss while encouraging desirable model properties.
method Solves a bilevel optimization problem by combining training loss gradients and orthogonal projections of auxiliary gradients.
result Bloop method leads to better performance than other gradient surgery methods without EMA.
Breiman's two cultures reconciled through blending statistical thinking.
problem Tension between parametric statistical and machine learning approaches.
method Establishing a link between parametric statistical and machine learning frameworks.
result Integrated statistical thinking can bridge the gap between two cultures.
This study introduces a new GAS blending ensemble model for Bitcoin price prediction.
problem Predicting Bitcoin price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.
method Integrates advanced ensemble learning methods, feature selection algorithms, and sentiment analysis.
result The GAS model demonstrates excellent performance in daily Bitcoin trend prediction.
Improved prediction of polymer morphology through machine learning and simulations.
problem Understanding and predicting the morphology of multi-component polymer blends.
method Modified Cahn-Hilliard model for simulations, machine learning for clustering and prediction.
result Machine learning achieved ≥ 90% accuracy in predicting polymer morphology. Neural GDEs improve graph prediction by blending discrete structures and differential equations.
problem Dynamic graph prediction challenges in irregularly sampled data.
method Continuous-depth graph neural networks (GNNs) with Neural GDEs.
result Neural GDEs enhance performance across various applications.
This is the first in a series Of papers in which we initiate the study Of very rough solutions to the initial value problem for the Einstein Vacuum equations expressed relative to wave coordinates. By very rough we mean solutions which cannot be constructed by the classical techniques Of energy estimates and Sobolev in…
In this paper we explore techniques for generating new music using a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) neural network that was trained on a corpus of specific style. Instead of randomly sampling the latent states of the network to produce free improvisation, we generate new music by querying the network with musical input …
Proposes glocal hypergradient estimation for hyperparameter optimization.
problem Combining reliability and efficiency in hyperparameter optimization.
method Uses Koopman operator theory to approximate global hypergradients from local ones.
result Achieves both reliability and efficiency in hyperparameter optimization.
BiPE blends intra-segment and inter-segment encodings for better length extrapolation.
problem Improving length extrapolation in language models.
method Bilevel Positional Encoding (BiPE) that separates intra-segment and inter-segment encodings.
result BiPE enhances length extrapolation across various text modalities.
Blended courses that mix in-person instruction with online platforms are increasingly popular in secondary education. These tools record a rich amount of data on students' study habits and social interactions. Prior research has shown that these metrics are correlated with students' performance in face to face classes.…
New algorithm completes nonnegative tensors with fewer samples and faster convergence.
problem Tensor completion tension between sample complexity and computational complexity.
method Integer programming and Blended Conditional Gradients algorithm.
result Achieves information-theoretic sample complexity rate with practical convergence.
Extreme learning machine (ELM) as a neural network algorithm has shown its good performance, such as fast speed, simple structure etc, but also, weak robustness is an unavoidable defect in original ELM for blended data. We present a new machine learning framework called LARSEN-ELM for overcoming this problem. In our pa…
Optimal transport aligns source and target distributions for domain adaptation.
problem Unsupervised domain adaptation with joint class-conditional and label shifts.
method Minimizes importance weighted loss and Wasserstein distance for aligned marginals and class-conditional distributions.
result Our method outperforms competitors on various domain adaptation tasks.
(Unsupervised) Domain Adaptation (DA) seeks for classifying target instances when solely provided with source labeled and target unlabeled examples for training. Learning domain-invariant features helps to achieve this goal, whereas it underpins unlabeled samples drawn from a single or multiple explicit target domains …
Bayesian taut splines estimate modes in probability densities.
problem Estimating the number of modes in probability density functions.
method Bayesian inference with flexible kernel estimators and compositional splines.
result The new method provides more accurate results than traditional approaches.
Paper analyzes ensemble Kalman updates for effective dimension and localization.
problem Why small ensemble sizes work well in inverse problems and data assimilation.
method Non-asymptotic analysis of ensemble Kalman updates, focusing on effective dimension and localization.
result Rigorously explains why a small ensemble size is sufficient when prior covariance has moderate effective dimension.
Machine learning in context of physical systems merits a re-examination of the learning strategy. In addition to data, one can leverage a vast library of physical prior models (e.g. kinematics, fluid flow, etc) to perform more robust inference. The nascent sub-field of \emph{physics-based learning} (PBL) studies the bl…
Estimates watermarked content proportions in mixed-source texts.
problem Optimally estimating the proportion of watermarked content in texts with mixed sources.
method Casting the problem as estimating a proportion parameter in a mixture model based on pivotal statistics.
result Proposes efficient estimators for watermark proportion and shows their accuracy through evaluations.
SJDs unify masked, continuous, and hybrid diffusion models.
problem Unified modeling of diffusion processes.
method Continuous-time Markov processes with token embeddings and hazard rates.
result Unified model recovers masked, continuous, and hybrid diffusion as limits.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to sample from posterior distributions when the likelihood function is unavailable or intractable, as is often the case in biological systems. ABC methods suffer from inefficient particle proposals in high dimensions, and subjectivity in the choice of summary s…
We consider the problem of recovering a low-rank tensor from its noisy observation. Previous work has shown a recovery guarantee with signal to noise ratio O(n⌈K/2⌉/2) for recovering a Kth order rank one tensor of size n×⋯×n by recursive unfolding. In this paper, we first improve…
The most widely used activation functions in current deep feed-forward neural networks are rectified linear units (ReLU), and many alternatives have been successfully applied, as well. However, none of the alternatives have managed to consistently outperform the rest and there is no unified theory connecting properties…
Existing networks directly learn feature representations on 3D point clouds for shape analysis. We argue that 3D point clouds are highly redundant and hold irregular (permutation-invariant) structure, which makes it difficult to achieve inter-class discrimination efficiently. In this paper, we propose a two-faceted sol…
A new method for joint noise removal and trend estimation from sparse signals.
problem Jointly removing noise and estimating trends from sparse signals.
method PENDANTSS combines SOOT/SPOQ penalties with BEADS algorithm in a Trust-Region block alternating variable metric forward-backward approach.
result Outperforms comparable methods in deconvolving analytical chemistry signals.
Enhances topic-metadata relationship modeling using Bayesian methods.
problem Estimating relationships between latent topics and metadata in topic modeling.
method Proposes modifications to the method of composition, using Beta regression and a fully Bayesian approach.
result Improves quantification of uncertainty in topic-metadata relationships.